Bearzus

There is no such thing as a short, 3-4 day military operation—if we strike Iran, they will respond. We have consistently underestimated the most basic reality: the enemy gets a vote. There is no military option that will persuade Iran to accept the U.S.’s terms for a deal—after 8 months of failing to restore order to the chaos it caused, the administration knows this— so what is the purpose of more strikes? If we strike Iran by targeting more of their leaders and/or energy infrastructure, Iran will retaliate by striking Gulf energy infrastructure & U.S. forces in the region. More American troops will needlessly die, & our energy prices will continue to skyrocket. Iran’s allies & proxies—like the Houthis, Iraqi militias, & possibly Bahraini groups—will attack Saudi energy infrastructure, the BAM/Suez, & will potentially attack the governments of Kuwait & Bahrain. We’re already unable to help the Saudis deter the Houthis—if we engage in kinetic combat against Iran, we’ll be even more incapable of assisting our already-weakened allies. More strikes won’t change the game. Walking away & declaring victory before Tuesday sets a positive tone for the elections & resets the parameters for negotiations with Iran. President Trump can avoid the escalation trap by walking away now, before the fog of war envelops the rest of his presidency.