@benarhatch

Actuarial Analyst. Masters in Stats from Hunter College. 2026 @TGFBI Overall Champion. Aspiring baseball analyst here: https://xitter.cf/t.co/mMJVbY9xHH

 New York
Joined February 2023
  • Tweets212
  • Following407
  • Followers83
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I'm proud to say I won the @TGFBI overall title! Huge thanks to @JustinMasonFWFB for running the competition, and allowing me to participate for the past 3 years. Always a highlight of the year. I wrote a comprehensive (to put it lightly) analysis about my season. Linked below.
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benarhatch.substack.com/p/wi…
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My top 50 players in MLB for 2026. Explanations for ranks 26-50 below! #1-25 are covered in an earlier post.
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benarhatch.substack.com/p/my…
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Part 1 of my top 50 players out now! Link below. open.substack.com/pub/benarh… Most of the code for the ranking graphic is from the @TJStats pitching summary.
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I simulated a full MLB expansion draft (70 picks in total!) with short explanations for each pick. Link below.
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The draft: benarhatch.substack.com/p/20…
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Happy that I got my first @TGFBI win in my second attempt, especially with it coming down to the wire against @markblakemore! Also was honored to face @PitcherList - no one has taught me more about how to analyze the game.
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I have sinned for ranking Aaron Judge as the #3 player in the league. He's still clearly the best.
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Gotta get your guys #FAAB
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All of Schwellenbach's pitches other than than his splitter have a 40+% CSW after 7 IP. It may be the Marlins, but he's still underrated.
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My (quite subjective) pre-arb extension system projected a Merrill extension to be worth $153.5 MM in these 9 years (which may still be too low, tbh), so $135 MM is quite a steal. Harder to project Campbell, but that's also likely $20 MM too little. Chourio did better with no ST.
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Just finished my 3rd annual top 50 list! More controversial than years past I'm sure. Explanations below.
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Explanations for Ranks 26-50. 1-25 are in part 1. benarhatch.substack.com/p/my…
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Vlad Guerrero put up 1.3 fWAR in nearly 700 PA a year and a half ago. I would be surprised if he even got $500 million.
Jeff Passan
@JeffPassan7 Mar 2025
Toronto first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. told @Enrique_Rojas1 and @EJerezESPN that he proposed a contract to the Blue Jays for 15 years and less than $600 million. More from Vlad Jr., free and unlocked at ESPN: espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/4414…

Vlad Jr. reveals sub-$600M ask in Blue Jays talks

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. revealed that the Toronto Blue Jays' rejected contract extension proposal was less than $600 million for 14 years.

espn.com
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The first part of my Top 50 players for 2025! Ranks 1-25 here. Graphic to make skipping around convenient within. open.substack.com/pub/benarh…
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Tom Brady is doing cartwheels during the ad breaks watching Mahomes get cooked like this
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Wrote about Kutter Crawford's 2025 outlook here: benarhatch.substack.com/p/20…
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Mackenzie Gore
Running From The OPS
@OPS_BASEBALL1 Feb 2025
Who is a player that you think finally puts it all together in 2025? I’ll Start:
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It's funny where life can take you sometimes. An innocent question about an article I was working on myself turned into me putting my R skills to use to research Negro League adjustments through the years. @EricChalek has since moved to BlueSky, but check it out below!
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He was extremely gracious about how much credit he gave me, considering I was only putting his ideas into action. Link here: bsky.app/profile/eric-chalek…
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