Journalist 🗞️ Historian 📚 Writer ✏️ European 🌍 Austrian 🎶 Styrian 🌳  Jedi ☄️ Eldar ✨ Schwoaza ⚽ Dad 👶

Wien, Österreich
Joined June 2010
Hear ye, hear ye 🥁🙌 So happy and proud to announce that we won the Jean Monnet Prize for European Integration 2020 for our project “Home Is Where the Herz Is” europeanconstitution.eu/2020… Check it out ☺️❤️ metropole.at/herz So proud of our team at @metropole_vie 🤩
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At annual growth of 1.5%, incomes double every 46 years. At annual growth of 3.5%, incomes double every 20 years.
I would love it if some economists wrote a clear general-audience-accessible piece on how to think about 2pp (or growth) in units and abstractions, or even one just specifically aimed at AI researchers and computer scientists. I don't just mean something like "here is the long-run trend in GDP and the trend in child mortality and they correlate" or something one would see at a progress conference. That is good but not enough. What I mean is something that will help to deeply calibrate a sophisticated (quantitative yet non-economist) reasoner on why 2pp matters. In my experience as one of the extremely few computer scientists working on the economics of frontier AI, most computer scientists (who generally have no economic training) do not think 2pp over the next decade can coincide with much progress in society/improved welfare. Not to be unkind to my fellow computer scientists, but I honestly think the first-order reason is 2 is a small number, fairly close to 0. So if one believes that AI will improve society dramatically, then that suggests they need to reject "2pp" and, often, to throw out trust in economists with it altogether (baby with the bathwater). But I think a lot could be fixed if economists can help reconcile "2pp" and with "materially better". (And maybe this already exists and I am unaware.)
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Benjamin Wolf 🇺🇦 retweeted
450 million currently have the right to settle in Amsterdam. But don’t. The full 69.5 million population of the UK plus the full 5.5 million population of Ireland currently have the right to work and settle in Brighton. But don’t. Reform are being very silly, again.
🚨 BREAKING NEWS 🚨 Andy Burnham has admitted he wants open door immigration with the EU. Freedom of movement means 450 million people will be able to move to the UK with no powers to stop them. Why is Burnham so determined to open the floodgates once again?
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One of the strangest and under-discussed phenomena in macro is how different GDP per capita and GDP per hour worked have evolved since 1990 in the US and Europe.
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Here are both charts starting in 1990, just for completeness’ sake. Same story, correct charts.
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Benjamin Wolf 🇺🇦 retweeted
I chose not to include this in the recent Phenomenal World piece, so here just for reference.
One of the strangest and under-discussed phenomena in macro is how different GDP per capita and GDP per hour worked have evolved since 1990 in the US and Europe.
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How different GDP per capita and GDP per hour worked have evolved in the US and selected European countries since 1990.
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*now both charts correctly starting in 1990
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[Apologies for all the typos, hope the point came across regardless.]
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And I just realized I picked the wrong GDP per capita growth chart, oh well. The point was made for the right one, just picked the more recent one.
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