AI Infrastructure • Compute Economics • Semiconductors • Models • Power • $NVDA since 2016
Los Angeles, CA
Joined April 2009
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AMD is my pick for the most overhyped chip stock.
The AI trade needs receipts: shipped racks, competitive token costs and real power.
I made the case with @JackFarley96 on Monetary Matters.
youtu.be/Y2lNNw1Cja0?si=O2LN…
$AMD $NVDA
6pm standing room only for Corweaves $CRWV Richard Ahlfeld at @NVIDIAGTC Berlin
How do you architect for robotics?
Here is the Microduck up close
You can program it work DGX spark
This baby duck represents the future of physical Ai
it relies on reinforcement learning to transition AI-trained movements from digital simulations into the real world
Small duck now large robots later 🐥🤖💚
Jensen handled it with grace and class
He’s truly a generational leader and entrepreneur 💚
Jensen’s Berlin keynote briefly interrupted by a protester. He handled it like a pro.
It was a small moment that captures the broader tension around AI’s impact, both in the room and around the world.$NVDA
Remove the bottleneck
An unplugged GPU produces zero tokens.
NVIDIA says DSX POD cuts installation from up to 6 months to 14 days after site readiness. The modular approach makes time to first token faster and less on site labor.
$NVDA: engineer the whole factory and get it producing sooner.
AI keeps running into atoms.
NVIDIA targets SPIL CPO optical-engine 200GBps made by TSMC Coupe
NVIDIA's side of the Optical Cold War: secure the optical supply behind the GPUs. The moat reaches into the supply chain. $NVDA
The factory is the product.
Compute. Networking. Storage. Software. Deployment.
Our $NVDA thesis: the advantage compounds across the system. A rival has to beat the cost of getting useful work done across that entire stack.
The calm before the storm at GTC Berlin.
@dee_bosa and @GavinSBaker, getting the pregame started. It’s cold outside, but things are about to heat up. 🔥
In Jensen math that’s $1T of Ai capex Alone
But Elon and @SpaceXSI don’t build luxury data centers so it’s a little less call it $800B 😄
$SPCX
ELON:
- WE COULD HAVE 20GW OF SI CAPACITY ONLINE BY NEXT YEAR, SMALL CHANCE BUT IT IS POSSIBLE
- I WOULD BE SURPRISED IF WE BROUGHT ON LESS THAN 13GW OF COMPUTE BY THE END OF NEXT YEAR
If Elon brings 20GW online next year...
If you’ve followed our $NVDA work, tomorrow should connect a few dots.
The factory is the product.
The moat reaches well beyond the GPU. Watch how far Jensen takes that at Nvidia GTC Berlin.
More tomorrow.
🤖💚
Made it to Berlin for @NVIDIAGTC 🇩🇪
Excited to see how Germany’s Mittelstand is embracing physical AI and what’s ahead for robotics, manufacturing, and industrial automation.
It’s time to build 🤖💚
Big thanks to NVIDIA for hosting me at GTC Berlin 🍻
As I head to Europe for GTC Berlin, I keep coming back to a question: what good is building the future if our children don’t have a stake in it?
As a father of three, this is personal. I want my kids to grow up knowing they can help build something and own a piece of it. But that opportunity shouldn’t depend on whether their parents already have money.
Watching the unrest in France, I worry about what happens when people lose faith that the system has a place for them. Ownership won’t solve every grievance. But I believe capitalism is stronger when more people participate in its upside, rather than watch it from the outside.
That’s why @altcap work with Invest America, @MichaelDell and Susan Dell’s gifts, and Elon’s pledge here deserve real credit. Different efforts, united by a powerful idea: give children a stake in the future before they’re old enough to feel excluded from it.
A first investment can teach something a lecture cannot. You own a small piece of a business. You can watch it grow, weather setbacks and learn what patience means. Compounding becomes something you experience, not just something you’re told about.
Everyone wants equity. Not just a seat at the table, but a share in what gets built.
Let’s start the kids young.
👶💪🚀🇺🇸
Buying GPUs gets the headlines. Making them productive is the work.
Meta reports 99% fewer training interruptions at Prometheus from the initial peak, with NVIDIA engineers helping tackle firmware, memory and reliability issues.
Meta also reports over 85% pre-training goodput and over 90% for reinforcement learning on Muse Wonder. Goodput means training time that actually moves the model forward.
Our takeaway: the value is in the whole system. Chips, networking, software and recovery all determine how much useful work your compute delivers.
This is what making compute count looks like.
Everyone's watching GPUs. Jensen's watching substrate.
"Substrates are getting larger and there are more chips... it's going to be hard to close that gap for a few years."
Morgan Stanley's Oct 14 ABF note: undersupply hits 9.3% in CY27 and 13.7% in CY28, prices rise 25%+, and new capacity doesn't arrive until 2028 to 2030.
Aunty Lisa took her trips to Taiwan too late. The real bottleneck is the thing the chips sit on anon
$NVDA $AMD
"Sight unseen, who can you place a $50, $100 billion order on? We're literally the only one." - Jensen
Hyperscalers order racks a year or two before they see them. That's the bar Helios has to clear.
I was at Moscone for AMD Advancing AI in July. Helios looked credible on paper, but it's AMD's first rack-scale system and still unproven at volume manufacturing. My call was meaningful volume in 2H27, two quarters past AMD's own window.
Meanwhile AMD is getting squeezed from the other side by the custom inference silicon showing up everywhere.
Nobody writes a $50B check on a slide.
newsletter.bepresearch.com/p…
$NVDA $AMD
Spot on, @ramahluwalia. I want AI that anticipates what I need and takes care of it. That’s the experience worth paying for.
Also love the bank earnings lens: spending up, lending up, credit holding up. A healthier economy than the headlines suggest.
ledger.lumidawealth.com/p/th…
"Sight unseen, who can you place a $50, $100 billion order on? We're literally the only one." - Jensen
Hyperscalers order racks a year or two before they see them. That's the bar Helios has to clear.
I was at Moscone for AMD Advancing AI in July. Helios looked credible on paper, but it's AMD's first rack-scale system and still unproven at volume manufacturing. My call was meaningful volume in 2H27, two quarters past AMD's own window.
Meanwhile AMD is getting squeezed from the other side by the custom inference silicon showing up everywhere.
Nobody writes a $50B check on a slide.
newsletter.bepresearch.com/p…
$NVDA $AMD
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