I track crypto projects daily and post the data CT won't
on-chain
Joined January 2024
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馃毃 3 days ago I told you to save yourself the July 1 unlock panic. Said screenshot it we'd check on the 1st.
The unlock hit: 13.7M $SUI, 0.14% of supply. Non-event, exactly as called.
The tell: this week the alt market's down ~2%, peer L1s down ~5% and SUI is flat-to-green. The one day everyone braced for a dump, it outperformed a red tape.
A scary headline "TOKENS UNLOCKING" and a number that actually moves price are two different things. Sizing is the whole skill. 0.14% was never going to be the story.
Data precision over ego. Onto the next.
Everyone's about to blame July 1 for $SUI's next red candle. Save yourself the panic.
The unlock: 13.7M SUI. $9.4M, 0.14% of total supply.
For scale: SUI trades $400M a day. This unlock is ~2% of a single day's volume. The market clears that before lunch.
I flagged supply as a real bear case two days ago and it is, structurally, over years. But a 0.14% drip is not a cliff. Conflating the two is how people fade decent setups for the wrong reason.
Where it lands:
Community Reserve - 4M
Early Contributors - 7.65M
Mysten Treasury - 2.07M
The only bucket to watch is Early Contributors. Insiders, not ecosystem funds. 7.65M, $5.25M, still noise at this volume.
So if SUI dumps July 1, it won't be the unlock. It'll be the same thing dragging the whole alt market.
Screenshot this. We'll check on the 1st.
A recent experiment tested 46 listed Sui x402 payment routes.
19 of them failed to return the expected payment response. That's 41%.
Small sample, not a network-wide verdict. But it raises a much bigger question.
If agents become economic actors, they need more than wallets.
But I'm still looking for a different set of numbers:
- Actual settlement volume
- Repeat stablecoin users
- Organic capital inflows
- Real payment activity outside DeFi
Because growing stablecoin supply needs to get users consistently using it.
For scale: that's less than a single mid-size fintech moves through traditional rails in a week.
On the "institutional settlement chain," it's the entire stablecoin base.
And the token just lost $1 while they posted the anniversary.
I keep coming back to the same split.
Yesterday I showed you Current, $SUI's fastest-growing lender, up 6x. I asked if it was organic or farmed.
Here's the bigger answer, and it's not just about @CurrentSUI.
Sui emits roughly 64 million tokens every month in community rewards.
A lot of that flows straight into lending and LP pools, the yields that pull "deposits" in.
So when you see a Sui lender 6x its TVL, the honest first question isn't "how good is the product." It's "how much of this is the chain paying people to show up."
Some of it is real.
Real borrowing, not deposits parked for a screenshot.
Now the catch, because I'm not handing you a number without one:
Is it organic or farmed? A lender 6x-ing in six months is either genuine demand finding the best rates on Sui, or mercenary capital renting yield.
Even Sui's own partners' coverage says it plainly: no on-chain record shows $500M locked. It's an IOU, not a TVL number.
I'm not saying it won't come. Some of it probably will. But "pledged" and "deposited" are the same gap I've been pointing at all along.
Buybacks so far: $646,000.
Market cap: $4.16 billion.
That's the monetization engine. Also 0.015% of the thing is supposed to support.
And it's capped by design. The buybacks come from yield on USDsui which is $77M in supply.