The Fed decides rates tomorrow. Everyone's asking "hold or hike?" Wrong question. The real one: is the Fed fighting inflation, or fighting oil? September CPI: 3.7% headline. Core: 2.6%. That 1.1-point gap is mostly energy, up 20% in a year. Gasoline alone was over half of September's increase. Strip out oil and the Fed isn't far from target. So the December hike markets are pricing would be a hike into a supply shock. Rate hikes don't pump more oil. They just slow everything else. The last major central bank to try it: the ECB, July 2008. It hiked with oil near $145. Within three months it was cutting. Now look at bonds. The 10-year fell from above 5.3% to ~4.99% this month, with hikes still priced. The bond market is leaning toward slowdown, not inflation. And Brent just slipped under $115 on Iran talks. If Hormuz reopens, the case for Dhikedecember goes with it. Tomorrow I'm listening for one word from Warsh: "core" or "headline." Core = he looks through oil. Risk breathes. Headline = he's chasing oil. December is live, and BTC at $80K isn't priced for that.