more human than human blogger @lemniscap prev @theblockco & decision research @uchicago @columbia

Joined April 2009
Some stats on #php2shell. In the 10 hours before it was publicly announced, across the @Cloudflare network we saw thousands of attempts to exploit it. That jumped to tens of thousands in the 45 minutes post announcement, hundreds of thousands within 2 hours, and millions now.
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Really nice report. Follow up: why has the fall in AI prices been so fast? When you plot the price decline against cumulative R&D investment rather than time, you get the elasticity of price declines to R&D investment. By this margin, AI is not unusual – its price elasticity to R&D investment is squarely in the middle of Epoch's considered technologies. So the AI price fall is historically unprecedented because we've dumped money into AI R&D at a historically unprecedented rate – and that R&D has paid off at a very average rate.
AI is getting cheaper more quickly than any other transformative tech in history. At a given level of performance, cost has fallen ~47%/quarter since 2023. That’s 4× faster than DNA sequencing, 6× faster than compute, 18× faster than lithium batteries, and (up to 1973) 54× faster than electricity.
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blockhiro retweeted
people who are bearish near don't understand near intents
i like near intents
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blockhiro retweeted
Looks like binary outcome markets (prediction markets) are coming to Lighter very soon. A commit, named "Binary options support", was recently made in the Lighter prover repo, which describes the ZK circuit powering Lighter. I've read through the code; here are some of the interesting takeaways...
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blockhiro retweeted
Wild 24 hours for AI and lots of different proposals have been made. TLDR; the only *tangible* new fact is that OpenAI and Anthropic are going to have embedded 3rd party evaluators from unknown organizations with Dario floating METR as a possibility. Having 3rd party evaluators is smart as there is no Section 230 style liability shield for model outputs and showing a “duty of care” will be important in future litigation. Several internet companies might have gone bankrupt without Section 230 so limiting liability really matters. There are minimal investment implications from this single new fact, but I do think that for anyone who wants a “smoother for longer” cycle then most constraints are good: wafers, watts, real rates and spreads. Excessive regulation is a different matter but I don’t think we are anywhere close to this even if the vector changed over the last 24 hours. To summarize the events: Dario made the most maximalist proposal of the weekend: embedded 3rd party evaluators, a national regulatory regime for models beyond a certain capability/ingredient threshold, a broad international regulatory pact between democracies, stricter limits on compute/distillation for China and then a different international regulatory regime that encompasses China. Before there is a national regulatory regime, he wants a Sherman act waiver so that Anthropic can safely coordinate with OpenAI and other frontier labs without antitrust fears. TBF, this latest proposal is much less maximalist than some of his prior proposals like “Policy on the AI Exponential,” where he advocated for an FAA for AI. I believe he is sincere in his beliefs. And despite all the protestations, all of this would also probably be good for his business over the long-term. Sam agreed that embedded 3rd party evaluators were a good idea and stated they would implement them. Again, this is smart as should help limit future liability. Elon said “Dario is right” and later specified that “Dario is right that there should be some oversight. Peer review of AI by competitors is the right way to start this off.” This would be a MPAA like self-regulatory structure for AI with regular calls between the labs plus a process where each new model is evaluated for safety by competitors for a 1-2 week period before being released. That is *wildly* different from Dario’s proposal and in-line with what David Sacks has been proposing. Elon also stated that nothing was going to slow down open-weight models. Demis said that Dario’s essay was a “step in the right direction.” Dario also said that he was also open to Demis’ idea of a FINRA like self-regulatory structure as part of his proposal. David Sacks had a thoughtful post where he said that Dario and Sam should pace unilaterally, called the antitrust waiver a cartel request and denied that METR was truly independent given their ties to Anthropic. Sriram Krishnan, former White House AI advisor, noted that it would be important to have the 3rd party evaluators come from independent organizations that are not affiliated with any lab, which is basically an indirect statement about the relationship between METR and Anthropic which Sacks was explicit about. Clem from Hugging Face said they were open to being a neutral 3rd party evaluator, which is interesting especially if Jensen was consulted before that post. Alexander Wang from Meta noted that alignment would be an increasing focus going forward. An executive order seems likely after all this and the language in this EO is going to be really important. It is possible to democratize and distribute AI broadly and safely without centralizing it in the hands of a few corporations who might each become more powerful than any single government. I do not want a few humans in control of intelligence. I want us all to have our own intelligences that reflect our own values and human variation in all of its richness. Intelligence distribution over intelligence centralization FTW.
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The cost of intelligence is going to zero. The value of human cognition will go negative. The economy will change forever. We need new institutions to navigate this transition and ensure the benefits are widely distributed. Today we present the Champion. Truly Sovereign AI.
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blockhiro retweeted
Replying to @v12sec
We resolved the vulnerability upon discovery and released an update on August 11. Please ensure your Rabby extension is up to date. The mobile app is unaffected. The conditions required to trigger this vulnerability are extremely limited: 1/ The wallet must be connected to a malicious website. 2/ The user must have manually set their auto-lock timer to specifically 10 minutes (all other timer settings are completely unaffected). No exploits have been detected in the wild.
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blockhiro retweeted
Miserable close... Miserable market for the moment. watch tonight....
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blockhiro retweeted
Regardless of whether this prediction comes true in the specifics, it’s almost certain that it comes true in the broad sense. DRAM prices are not going to keep going up the way they have without a significant incentive to use it more efficiently. You need to be an extremely firm believer in Jevon’s Paradox as it applies to memory to remain long the OEMs here, otherwise it is essentially a bet that’s short innovation out of necessity.
Andrew Curran
@AndrewCurran_Jun 30
I'm posting this prediction now so I can quote it later. There has been a significant breakthrough in architecture - specifically around memory efficiency - not by one of the big labs, but by a team that was spun out of OpenAI (not SSI). They will probably announce it soon.
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blockhiro retweeted
Toto, Japan's luxury toilet maker, has seen its share price 2x YTD đźš˝ Their ceramics are used in equipment for memory production.
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Agents are part of a massive, interconnected ecosystem. But how do they find and trust each other across different platforms? Today, we’re proud to announce the Agentic Resource Discovery (ARD), an open specification alongside industry partners (including Cisco, Databricks, GitHub, GoDaddy, Hugging Face, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Salesforce, ServiceNow, and Snowflake). ARD gives any agent a secure, decentralized way to discover and verify capabilities (like tools, skills, MCP servers, and other agents) anywhere on the web. Read the full announcement and get started: goo.gle/4a2sTWf
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The @Tempo mainnet launched 93 days ago. Quick summary of the current state: • Run rate payment volume is around $3 billion. There's a long way to go, but it's cool to see real usage already emerging. (It took Stripe a lot longer than 93 days to get to $3 billion.) • As a blockchain, we obviously don't know about all the different use-cases. (Please tell us if you're doing something cool with Tempo!) Larger companies using Tempo include @Deel, which is using Tempo to pay out to their vast network of contractors, and @Meta, which is using it via @Link for global payouts. There are a bunch of other large companies working on Tempo integrations that'll be announced soon. • Internally, developing on Tempo has been fun, and Tempo is now Stripe's default blockchain for new features. • On the AI side of things, there appear to be around 1,000 active services selling to agents via the Machine Payments Protocol (@mpp). There's a useful directory of available services at mppscan.com. 570 unique agents, for example, seem to have purchased from @ExaAILabs, and 332 from @openweather. I don't know how long it'll take for this use-case to become big, but it seems all-but inevitable that it will within a few years. • Today, @Stripe, @Visa, and @StanChart are running Tempo validators. Validation will become more decentralized over time. • The Tempo team is building a lot of new protocol functionality. For example, privacy zones, receive policies, and virtual addresses. (Details for all on the Tempo blog: tempo.xyz/blog.) In general, our belief is that there's a lot of functionality to be built at the blockchain level to make higher-level applications easy and performant. The original thesis behind Tempo was that both AI and stablecoins would stretch blockchains in new ways, with need for privacy, fees denominated/payable in stablecoins, batch transactions, microtransactions, faster confirmations, and so forth. Overall, this still seems like the right set of bets, and the agentic stuff is happening somewhat faster than I was expecting. "1M stablecoin TPS, with the vast majority from agents" still seems like the right north star.
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NEW DEEP DIVE --> A Framework for Valuing Bitcoin Miners as AI Infrastructure ⬇️
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blockhiro retweeted
Money printer goes burrrrr with Markets app. Now live on both Android and iOS. Trade, follow, earn 24/7. Download & copy the best traders in the world. 👇
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blockhiro retweeted
As Mythos might be launching today, I highly recommend revoking every approval across every wallet you own. Better safe than sorry.
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blockhiro retweeted
Wait until they find out about the Bitcoin bug in 2010 that minted 184,000,000,000 BTC and had to be patched
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blockhiro retweeted
Dug more into Zcash exploit and think the blast radius is much lower than what I understood on the show. It's not infinite supply mint - it's infinite supply within Orchard (a specific shielded pool). That represents ~25% of total circulating (estimated) and that is the max possible amount that can be counterfeit and removed from the Orchard pool. This is why people are speaking confidently about the exploit having not happened - the flows associated to Orchard would look weird if someone got free ZEC within it and mass exported. If they were doing it consciously before to match inflows, surely they'd do it more heavily now that the gig is up. The next upgrade coming down the pipe will implement a new pool with better soundness that people can migrate too and if everyone is able to migrate you can be fairly certain the exploit was never used - but it is NOT explicit proof that it was never used. You can only infer.
ZEC trade r/r reminds me of the USDC depeg trade from '23. It's either going to recover to pre-exploit find (+100%) or its found out that >0 people used it and it goes to $0.
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blockhiro retweeted
Notwithstanding the overall weakness across crypto, $LIT looks ready to go. Often referred to as "beta" but it can stand on its own metrics. Seeing more former ETH maxis and large traders get behind it for the tech architecture and snappy performance + liquidity. Locally, it has shed a lot of OI build without really going down in price against broader market going straight down. $HYPE still king, no need to be tribal. I own both. These protocols have both shown they can do well even when the crypto industry as a whole is not, as their growth angles are TradFi adjacent (stocks/RWA trading + deals to receive the interest on USDC margin in the platforms). The best coins in a bad market are the ones receiving the capitulation flows from other much larger coins BTC flowed into ZEC SOL flowed into HYPE ETH -> LIT?
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