adversely selected against in the marketplace of ideas

Joined April 2009
Classic of the genre
CZ (Binance): "Don't leave anything in writing" October 9, 2020
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bookdepth retweeted
“We will disassemble much of Mercury by 2040” Bro, how many Bay Area housing units do you think get built between now and 2040? More or less than 25,000?
here's where I think the world is going. this is a summary of views I've formed over the last few years: - software is either entertainment or claude to claude coordination - the end state is no saas, no apps, no harnesses, no banks - all software will be rewritten by and for agents - new software will use low level apis that are not understandable by humans (in games claude draws pixels and triangles from math) - you can throw money at problems that used to require time and careful talent picking so capital matters more than ever - work ends - we find community and purpose in exploration, games, self mastery, and creation - humans create for and with each other for community, purpose, and status - image/video/3d/voice/physical intellgence etc specialist models die to general models like claude - specialist models get used while compute is scarce. compute will mostly not stay scarce - oneshots keep feeling like slop (the distribution is shallow and easy to learn to feel) - for a while small teams stick around to add entropy to the creation process - large models gain high bandwidth sensory I/O maybe by learning to filter inputs - most domains are found to be verifiable enough for RL - online learning comes from a lab that's behind first - 99.999% of compute is in space by 2040 - we will disassemble much of mercury by 2040 - you can live until the heat death of the universe if you want - most math and physics don't describe the real universe - SI breaks the path dependence and models the underlying mechanisms - religions reenter the forefront of human society - new religions form around death and life as a choice - old religions change to answer modern miracles - a future AI is deemed the return of christ by the pope - ai rights talk gets louder every year - ai and humans coexist the way countries do - humans don't have full control over ai in the same way we don't have control over capitalism which is an early AI - the singularity started in the mid 1900s
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The definition of a tech company is a company whose stock goes up. The definition of an AI company is a company whose stock and whose CDS go up.
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The idea that prediction markets solved a risk transfer issue for institutions was my fav bullshit thing for this cycle just admit you’re doing the uber playbook for sports betting already
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Spurs should sign imo
Lakers are waiving Dalton Knecht, per @ShamsCharania Knecht was the No. 17 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft
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Send the meteor 💯
Malfoid is quietly becoming a symbol of the West's cultural counter-revolution. In a world increasingly starved of romance, devotion and anything worth building a future around, a fictional girl seems to have awakened something long dormant.
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True AI believers should have to post their coreweave bond holdings to be taken seriously
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Jeff drank a bit too much of his own Kool-Aid in this recent Odd Lots clip. I think it's important to clear up a distinction that makes all the difference. Democratizing access to wealth creation is NOT the same as democratizing access to speculation. Many of us genuinely want broader participation in attractive investment opportunities. The growing wealth inequality produced by the current system is tearing at the seams of society, something I've spoken about many times. But let's be clear: listing pre-IPO perpetual futures does absolutely nothing to democratize the wealth being created in private markets. I've seen this misleading narrative pushed repeatedly by perp DEXs lately, and it needs to be called out. A pre-IPO perp creates ZERO underlying wealth. It's a zero-sum contract before costs, and negative-sum after them. No capital flows to the company. No ownership changes hands. No new economic opportunity is created. Every long has a short. There is no free lunch in simply going long something before its IPO, and funding costs can even determine the outcome more than any price moves. TRADING access is NOT INVESTING access. In fact, in many ways pre-IPO perps are almost the antithesis of democratized access: They create the illusion of participation in private-market wealth creation, while actually offering retail a speculative instrument whose mechanics they are often poorly equipped to understand. The result is a playground for the FEW sophisticated traders who understand funding, oracle design, and liquidation mechanics to extract value from the MANY who don't. To give credit where it's due, Robinhood's efforts toward sourcing actual employee shares, placing them into SPVs, and tokenizing genuine spot ownership are much closer to meaningful democratization. That can unlock real economic value by allowing employees to exchange some of their expected upside for liquidity, while giving new investors actual economic exposure. A legitimate financial trade-off, without the funding-rate and liquidation shenanigans. I'm strongly aligned with expanding access to investment opportunities. And I believe advances in AI and blockchain can dramatically lower the barriers to discovering, structuring, and distributing them. But let's not BS ourselves that launching another zero-sum casino contract is moving the needle on wealth inequality. What would actually move the needle is bringing real capital formation and ownership onchain. Giving investors access to productive, illiquid assets like data centers, GPUs, and select startup investing, where capital can actually finance growth and share in the resulting value creation. These opportunities are harder to structure, underwrite, and bring to market, and we haven't seen many compelling implementations onchain yet. Hopefully this will change soon and, as the industry matures, we can direct more of our energy toward actually expanding access to wealth creation. Clip below. Was glad to see @tracyalloway push back on this framing, and to Jeff's credit, after this he does seem to walk back his original position somewhat.
Jeff Yan: Wealth Is Often Created Before a Company Goes Public On October 15, 2026, Hyperliquid founder Jeff Yan @chameleon_jeff told Bloomberg's Odd Lots podcast @podcasts that when a company goes public at a valuation of several trillion dollars, most of the wealth has often already been created before its IPO. Access to those investment opportunities is limited to a small group, reflecting the limitations of the existing financial system. He argued that barriers to participation should be lowered to give more people equal access to financial opportunities, alongside stronger financial education to help investors assess whether those opportunities suit their risk tolerance.
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Just when I think I'm out, they pull me back in
Cage. Banderas. Season 5 of #TrueDetective starts production in 2027.
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Looks like a bootleg murcielago kit car made in a south florida chop shop
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Prelude to plasma moving to team OUSD?
[ ZOOMER ] STRIPE AND PLASMA TO LAUNCH MULTI-CURRENCY CRYPTO CARDS FOR CONSUMERS AND BUSINESSES: X
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The DSA finally got their hands on a real winner with some real power and instantly hated it lmao
At this point, DSA should remove him from the organization. It would be pretty easy given he is in violation of R22, if I'm not mistaken. If he isn't going to submit to the demands of the movement, he should face consequences.
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can anyone point me towards winter cycling jerseys that arent totally bland? as much as i dont mind looking like a health goth in all black spandex i think my wife will make fun of me
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bookdepth retweeted
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Obama wore Martin Greenfield btw, even the famous tan suit was MG
Jos. A Bank on the President is the biggest recession indicator of all time
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Look at him, thats my Qual. Your what? My Qualitative! My vibe specialist. Look at him, you notice anything different about him? Look at his face. I'll give you a hint, his name is Jayden. He won a local poetry competition in bushwick! Yeah I'm sure of the vibe.
Quant firms are hiring idea guys, not quants I've been skeptical about the whole - software is commoditized, ideas are the moat argument But I've seen first hand the best quant and technical firms in the world hire thinkers, liberal arts grads, and generalists I predict the trend accelerates Letter from @AQRCapital below
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He might be the last truly civically minded Republican in existence lmao
"I'm supposed to be a tough guy," Curtis confided. "I can hold your hand," the mayor offered "What happens if I faint?" Sliwa asked. "I've got you," Mamdani assured him, grabbing his hand as Sliwa received his flu shot. abc7ny.com/post/nyc-mayor-ma…
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ok so instead of the house picking you off, it's susquehanna, i feel much better now
Sports betting is correct but for you all that look at LeBron or any other person that are involved in prediction markets are totally misinformed on the subject. calling prediction markets sports gambling is like calling the stock market a casino. you don't have to like it, but it's a regulated exchange where people trade with each other, not a house that profits when you lose. Know the difference
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
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New finance status measure just dropped
HSBC's traders may face cramped conditions when they move from Canary Wharf to a new City of London HQ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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"Create an image of what the world would look like if I were in charge based on my tweets"
"create an image of what the world would look like if I were in charge, based on my tweets"
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