Bread Crumbs Research (@breadcrumbsre) header
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People-centric investing. Unrecognized/underappreciated excellence. "Trying to spot a great manager remains a game very much worth playing" (Marathon AM)

Joined February 2011
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Bread Crumbs Research retweeted
“Carl studied [physics / engineering / math] at [Standord / CalTech / MIT], so Carl is an expert on [anything technical] and, in addition to being an expert, also wouldn’t ever lie.” Since people are talking about investing heuristics today, this is a “bagholder” heuristic.
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Seems like North Korea will report 20% gdp growth this year
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[NK hackers just stolen $6bn from Binance]
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OMG
Mitähän ServiceNow'n $NOW sijoittajasuhdeosastolla on oikein polteltu...? -27% jo näistä yksinään oikeutettu
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Bread Crumbs Research retweeted
$SFM ☠️☠️☠️
One important thing to bear in mind when you invest in consumer businesses - it can go quickly both ways. And once the trend reversed - there is no such thing as "cheap" $SFM $SMPL $SVV $NWL
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Got a lot of aggressive pushback from google cult members after I mentioned my personal search volume was down like 90% yoy yet here we are 🫠
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Why retail investors love Boeing ?
Retail investors (live estimates): 1 $SKHY ▲21 2 $HOOD ▲31 3 $VRT ▲69 4 $GOOG ▲12 5 $STX 🆕 6 $ENPH 🆕 7 $MU ▲3 8 $GOOGL — 9 $BA ▲3 10 $TSLA ▼8 Retail leaderboard via breakoutpoint.com
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Oh no
Levered semi accounts are posting P&Ls again. It’s over. I don’t make the rules.
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Market values cyclicals on normalized earnings. If multiple is low it means the biz is overearning and normalized earnings are below current earnings. Stock is not cheap, it’s overearning. Typically the best time to buy cyclicals is when they are under earning
The semiconductor sector is trading at record-low forward P/E levels. Source: Goldman Sachs via @WallStJesus
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Capital cycle is coming for your stonks
Meta is raising up to $95bn of equity to fund AI spending, ~$35bn of common and pref now plus up to ~$60bn through an ATM. Bondholders should like this. $META
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That’s because Russia is an empire that occupies other countries to pump resources out of them, not to make them better
Exactly this. Whenever Moscow conquers a country, it is impoverished, polluted and destroyed. This is what happened to Estonia's economy (compared to Finland) during the Soviet Occupation. Estonia was wealthier than Finland in 1938, the Soviet occupation (1944-1991) turned it 10 times poorer. Since freedom from the Russians was achieved, it's back on track.
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Exactly this. Whenever Moscow conquers a country, it is impoverished, polluted and destroyed. This is what happened to Estonia's economy (compared to Finland) during the Soviet Occupation. Estonia was wealthier than Finland in 1938, the Soviet occupation (1944-1991) turned it 10 times poorer. Since freedom from the Russians was achieved, it's back on track.
“The most interesting thing is that the toothless, provincial Russian masses are absolutely convinced that they’re wanted everywhere and that people dream of Russkiy Mir coming to their countries.” — Ukrainian political analyst Borys Tizengauzen explains Russkiy Mir in simple terms that even vatniks can’t argue against. 📹 youtube.com/@tizengauzen?si=…
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Bread Crumbs Research retweeted
Putin's army is stuck. Now he is trying to win through propaganda and a terrorist campaign
Replying to @TheStudyofWar
2/ Russian forces have made effectively zero net gains in 2026 at the cost of over 40,000 casualties per month since July and around 458 casualties for every square kilometer of territory that Russian forces lost.
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That’s about 15 years late
Hershey to release protein powder - as CEO hopes to entice consumers on GLP-1 to snack again trib.al/WjhRAW5
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long oil services
$WCN (who owns a large E&P waste business levered to drilling activity) said producers see high oil prices as short term, so drilling is only up 10% this year. Drilling growth does not yet reflect $100 crude.
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that's a new bottleneck trade btw
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Bread Crumbs Research retweeted
English language Russian propaganda is always about NATO expansion or Nazis In Ukraine but Russian language Russian propaganda is just blood and soil arguments repackaged for modern Russian fascists.
Putin on Ukraine: Even now, we are ready to negotiate and seek solutions to this difficult, complicated situation, in the sense that they are a people very close to us, you understand? What can I say? Recent genetic studies show that, in fact, we are one people.
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