Daniel, 'Small Timer'

OK y'all. This one hurts my heart. One of the best guys in the hobby, my LCS owner Mike, had his shop broken into a few nights ago. The thieves made off with some serious stuff, and he still doesn't even know the full extent of it because he's still picking up the pieces. If you see someone selling, flashing, or bragging about weirdly high-end stuff that feels out of character, please pay attention. Not just anyone can show up with things like a $24k box of Transcendent, rare $7500 Mahomes autos, etc, without raising some eyebrows. This stuff represents decades of blood, sweat, and tears from one of the most upstanding families you could ever hope to meet, along with some pretty incredible team members who pour themselves into that shop every day. It makes me sick to see something like this happen to anyone, especially people like them. I have full faith that the hobby watchdogs, dealers, collectors, and card show crews won't let this stuff quietly disappear. I don't think these criminals understand what kind of reach we have. As a collective, I assure you, we can figure this out. They don't get to just ride off into the sunset. They did this to one of us...so they did this to all of us. Here are a couple links showing a small number of the stolen items, but there was a lot more. Please keep an eye out for anything strange. You'll know it when you see it. And if you do see something, please say something. Thank you all. facebook.com/share/p/18yTLps… facebook.com/share/p/18wufYX…

2026 Topps Series 1 Analysis & Deep Dive If you enjoy this kind of content, please follow me on Substack, where I keep my entire archive of product breakdowns like this. substack.com/@slabsquatch?ut… As is a full-on tradition at this point, Topps was fashionably late with the odds sheet for one of the biggest releases of the year. In the meantime, anyone paying even mild attention has already watched a small army of content creators rip this stuff on camera, making sure to notate that we have fewer hits in some formats, fewer packs in others, but all arriving at the same conclusion: “Wow… they printed this to the moon!” Now that I've taken one for the team and sacrificed too many hours of my life combing through every detail of this massive odds sheet, I'm happy to report...we have some surprises in store! Well, not about print runs. That will surprise precisely no one. On my deep dives, it's not my intention to go over every basic detail of the product and its dynamics. There are plenty of content creators that do a fantastic job of that. My specialty is going deeper, letting the numbers weave the narrative, and pointing out the elements that are buried down in the crevasses of the odds sheets. Feel free to strap in for this one...there might be some turbulence: Total cards in product: 614,818,654 (This encompasses all 25 formats listed on the odds sheet, but not the factory sets that will undoubtedly release later in the year. It also appears there will be something similar to the Celebration box of 2025 that will likely share the base checklist, so this number is bound to rise.) 2025 Series 1 production: 437,853,600 YOY +40.4% Base cards per player: 2026 Series 1- 1,560,544 2025 Series 1- 1,092,061 YOY +42.9% I'd like to start by addressing the elephant in the room. Production went up a little. However, I'm not mad at it. It's Series 1. Getting upset about Series 1 being overproduced is like getting mad that McDonald's makes more cheeseburgers because customers keep buying up all the cheeseburgers. It's kinda the point. Total production by format: Hobby boxes- 200,200 (16,683 cases) Jumbo boxes- 116,288 (14,536 cases) Hanger boxes- 1,102,500 (17,226 cases) Fanatics Value Boxes- 63,200 (1,580 cases) Fat Packs- 1,313,064 (12,158 cases) Floor Display (I have to assume this is similar to what is typically called the Retail Display Box)- 24,144 boxes (2,012 cases) Mega Boxes- 296,980 (14,849 cases) Super Boxes- 245,184 (20,432 cases) Tins- 2,511,950 (69,776 cases) Value Boxes- 1,239,520 (30,988 cases) There are some other formats on the odds sheet that I figured production for, but will not play a part in my comparisons. Japan boxes will likely not be readily available in the US. Even if they were, I would not recommend them. Also, there are 4 different SKUs called "Club Super Box Bulk Packs A,B,C, & D". These are separate from regular Super Boxes. I have to assume they will end up in some different formats of mixed Super Boxes as we've seen in the past. Finally, there are 1.4m "Little League" packs produced that will presumably be given out to young ball players. Hit frequencies per box: Hobby- 0.34 autos (1 auto per 3 boxes), 3.4 parallels, 10 inserts, 1.4 # cards, 0.66 relics Jumbo- 1 auto, 9.7 parallels, 19.8 inserts, 2.7 # cards. 1.3 relics Hangers- 44 boxes/auto, 3.1 parallels, 6 inserts, 4.8 boxes/# card, 22.9 boxes/relic Fanatics blasters- 44 boxes/auto, 10 parallels, 10.7 inserts, 4.1 boxes/# card, 16.3 boxes/relic Fat packs- 96 packs/auto, 0.5 parallels, 2.5 inserts, 18.2 packs/# card, 45.2 packs/relic Floor Display- 5.3 boxes/auto, 5.5 parallels, 26.7 inserts, 1.4 boxes/# card, 2.3 boxes/relic Mega Boxes- 18.2 boxes/auto, 3.5 parallels, 22.5 inserts, 1.9 boxes/# card, 8 boxes/relic Super Boxes- 25.2 boxes/auto, 5.9 parallels, 15.4 inserts, 2.8 boxes/# card, 12 boxes/relic Tins- 480 boxes/auto!, 2.4 parallels, 2.1 inserts, 32 boxes/# card, 135 tins/relic Value Boxes- 129.2 boxes/auto, 3.4 parallels, 8 inserts, 4.3 boxes/# card, 54.9 boxes/relic Things to note: • Autos in Hobby are roughly what you’d expect for Series 1, though noticeably less frequent than they were in ’25 Update. • Topps didn't bless us with extra autos in jumbo like they did in '25 Update, but it appears about 30% of boxes will have an extra relic over the stated 1/box. • Hangers now have less than the typical 2 autos/case that we've seen recently. • Fanatics blasters have really gone downhill from an auto perspective and can no longer be blindly relied upon to provide decent value. Though they technically provide the best $ per parallel cost, it's almost entirely from the Topps Foil parallels as there's not much else going on in those boxes. • If you're looking for any sliver of value, I would not even think about buying Tins. Unless it's for a kid. Even then, there are better options where your kid may still like you after. • Value boxes for Flagship have never been good. Now they're not even trying. Value landscape: Pricing based on release day pricing for Hobby formats ($100/hobby, $210/jumbo) and MSRP for retail formats. $/card: 1) Fat pack- 19¢ 2) Hangers & Tins- 25¢ $/parallel 1) Fanatics box- $3.00 2) Super Box- $3.62 3) Hangers- $4.92 $/Auto 1) Jumbo- $210 2) Hobby- $294.12 3) Floor Display- $369.60 4) Hangers- $660 Had to go to a runner-up retail format in case "Floor Display" has different dynamics than "Retail Displays" of the past. $/# card 1) Hangers- $72.30 2) Hobby- $72.46 3) Jumbo- $78.95 Best formats for value: From an auto perspective, it won't surprise anyone that Jumbo & Hobby are very close with the slight edge going to Jumbo. For inserts & parallels Hobby is still solid, but Hangers and surprisingly "Floor Display" boxes provide a similar value. If we find that Floor Display boxes are not the typical $70, 20-pack retail boxes, then they would fall off, leaving Hangers as the clear retail winner as they are solid all the way around. Keep in mind, in small sample sizes, Hangers can feel pretty awful. But it takes ~7 hangers to reach the equivalent of 1 Hobby box, even more once the prices of hobby spike as it inevitably will. At one auto per 44 Hangers, they can feel exceedingly dry, but they are actually a cheaper way to pull desirable Inserts like Golden Mirrors, Heavy Lumber, All Aces & All Kings than either Hobby or Jumbo. Print runs: Unnumbered parallels: Silver Crackle- ~2,335 ea Diamante- ~6,300 ea Pink Diamante- ~300 ea Holo Foil- ~8,750 ea Rainbow Foil- ~12,170 ea Aqua Rainbow Foil- ~580 ea Aqua Holo Foil- ~240 ea Pink Holo Foil- ~1,070 ea Spring Training- ~7,080 ea Sandglitter- ~1,110 ea Topps Logo- ~1,445ea Golden Mirror Image Variation- ~80 ea Golden Mirror Legend Variation- ~22 ea Team Color Border Variation- ~1,360 ea True Photo Variation- ~90 ea Base Holiday Variations- ~7,180 ea Base Holiday Polka Dots Green/Pink- ~3,590 ea Base Holiday Polda Dots Purple/Blue- ~720 ea Base Holiday Chicks- ~720 ea Base Holiday Eggs- ~340 ea Base Holiday Rabbits- ~130 ea Unnumbered Inserts: Cover Athlete Cards (10 card CL)- ~70 ea 2025 All Topps Team (12 card CL)- ~92,550 ea 2025 All Topps Team Pink- ~900 ea Topps Profiles (25 card CL)- ~95,290 ea Topps Profiles Pink- ~900 ea Big Ticket Players (26 card CL)- ~91, 980 ea Big Ticket Players Pink- ~900 ea 2025's Greatest Hits (28 card CL)- ~89,360 ea 2025's Greatest Hits Pink- ~900 ea First Pitch (9 card CL)- ~92,940 ea First Pitch Pink- ~910 ea 1991 Topps (100 card CL)- ~114,500 ea 1991 Topps Pink- ~910 ea 1991 Topps Crackle Foil- ~10,400 ea 1991 Topps Pink Crackle Foil- ~460 ea Stars of MLB (30 card CL)- ~473,430 ea Stars of MLB Crackle Foil- ~480 ea Titans of the Game (20 card CL)- ~499,240 ea Titans of the Game Crackle Foil- ~480 ea Home Field Advantage (20 card CL)- ~435 ea Heavy Lumber (20 card CL)- ~450 ea All Aces (10 card CL)- ~260 ea All Kings (15 card CL)- ~250 ea Funko Base Cards (5 card CL)- ~490 ea Oversized Base Cards (Super Box, 16 card CL)- ~15,325 ea Companion Card (16 card CL)- ~15,325 ea 1952 Variation (25 card CL)- ~90 ea 1991 Topps Koi Fish (100 card CL)- ~3,000 ea Unnumbered Autos: Funko Base Autos (2 card CL)- ~10 ea Major League Material Autos (86 card CL)- ~80 ea Heavy Lumber Auto Relic (60 card CL)- ~25 ea Baseball Stars Autos (83 card CL)- ~925 ea 1991 Topps Autos (185 card CL)- ~460 ea 75 Yrs of Topps Die Cut Autos (77 card CL)- ~75 ea Flagship Real One Autos (48 card CL)- ~165 ea Unnumbered Relics: Major League Material (87 card CL)- ~2,470 ea City Connect Swatch Relic (50 card CL)- ~420 ea 1991 Topps Relics (91 card CL)- ~2,150 ea Real One Relics (80 card CL)- ~230 ea #thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2026ToppsSeries1