Brusch.eth (Gabe)

🫵🏻 Be careful with biased manipulative headlines. 👁️ Here is the answer with a non-biased analysis and sources: —- **📊 Record Oil Output Meets Geopolitical Headwinds: Why Petrobras’s Q3 Results Are About Reinvestment, Not Mismanagement** Positive BUY recommendation by most analysts including JP Morgan and big funds. Petrobras posted R$ 39.8 billion in Q3 2026 net profit (+21.5% year-over-year) on all-time operational records. While traders reacted cautiously to smaller dividends and accelerated spending, the numbers show a profitable company reinvesting wartime oil windfalls into high-return deepwater assets—not losing money to mismanagement. What Was Good •Record Production: Output hit 3.51 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed), raising 2026 guidance to 2.7–2.8 million bpd. •Peak Refining & Lower Debt: Refineries ran at 99% capacity, net debt fell 4.2% to US$ 57.8 billion, and pre-salt extraction stayed ultra-cheap at US$ 6.10/barrel. What Was Bad •Smaller Dividends: Approved R$ 15.3 billion (US$ 2.7B) vs. the R$ 18.3 billion market consensus. •Working Capital Drag: Headline profit missed estimates (R$ 46.6B) due to R$ 12.3B in one-offs and R$ 12.7B tied up in fuel subsidy receivables and oil in transit. The Iran War & Global Crisis Impact •Oil Price Shock: Budgeted at US$ 63/bbl, Brent surged to US$ 97/bbl in Q3 due to the Iran war, Strait of Hormuz disruptions, and Russian refinery strikes. •Wartime Taxes & Freight: A temporary 12% oil/diesel export tax cost Petrobras US$ 867 million (R$ 4.5B) in Q3 to shield domestic consumers, while global shipping disruptions inflated freight costs. Where the Accelerated Capex Went Management raised 2026 Capex from US$ 19.4B to US$ 24B–US$ 25.5B using surging operating cash flow (US$ 45B–50B) to pull profitable projects forward, not cover overruns: •Offshore Platforms (FPSOs): Early first oil at P-79 and P-78 in Búzios, faster work at Atapu and Sépia, and peak output at Mero (Alexandre de Gusmão). •Nationalization & Auctions: Early nationalization of Búzios 9 and 10, added drilling rigs, and official ANP oil block auction bonuses. Outlook: Short-Term Caution vs. Long-Term Value •Short-Term Caution: Volatile oil prices (now ~US$ 92 amid Iran peace talks), export taxes, and front-loaded Capex compress near-term free cash flow. •Long-Term Strength: Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley maintain Buy ratings—bringing low-cost pre-salt platforms online early permanently boosts 2027+ cash generation. Fact-Checking the Social Media Narrative Partisan claims of corruption ignore basic corporate reality: 1Strict Oversight: Dual-listed on the NYSE (PBR) and B3, Petrobras is audited under strict SEC and CVM rules. 2Growing Profits, Falling Debt: A 21.5% profit jump and US$ 2.5B debt cut reflect financial strength, not looting. 3Physical Infrastructure: Funds went into measurable offshore rigs and public ANP auctions—already pumping record oil—not opaque contracts. Sources •Bloomberg (Q3 Earnings & Refining): bloomberg.com •Bloomberg (Record Output & Iran War): bloomberg.com •Bloomberg (Wartime Fuel Tax Measures): bloomberg.com •Agência Petrobras (Updated 2026 Projections): petrobras.com.br •Petrobras Investor Relations (3Q26 Results Center): investidorpetrobras.com.br •Brazil Energy Insight (Q3 Net Income Breakdown): brazilenergyinsight.com •Brazil Energy Insight (2026 Operational & Capex Projections):

brazilenergyinsight.com •Quantum Commodity Intelligence (Full-Year Forecast Hike): qcintel.com •InfoMoney (Market & Analyst Reaction): infomoney.com.br •XP Investimentos (Dividends Report): xpi.com.br

The story of a country that want’s to have the “right to exist” without borders, backed by the declining and abusive US empire. Two different nations united by greed and powerful economic elites. Two nations, parasiting the globe while the 193 othe UN recognized nations watch. Palestine is not recognized by the UN as a state yet, primarily due to the US VETO. 💀 While the US blames Israel, they are the key reason Palestine is not part of the UN yet.

📰 WHY THE MEDIA IGNORES THAT THE BUBBLE HAS BURST? Users are getting worse services than what was provided 2 years ago today! It is being done to keep the image of growth. For the user THE BUBBLE EXPLODED 8 MONTHS AGO! “The AI revenue forecast and the actual increase is being manufactured. Drivers and product breakdown are intentionally hidden.” — Seriously, I get really stressed when I try to talk to Grok about economy, foreign policy or the actual world dynamics. It does not bring any insight, any value. If you point it out to him/it you get an explanation about how you are actually right that it does not add real value and it stops there 🤯 If you ask about why it does not add some value then? Then it explains why he had not added value and the logic he followed and stops again 🤯 The fucking bot can’t follow up or add value to a simple economy discussion. 👁👁 According to Musk, Grok 5 could be AGI 😂 Seriously, a lobotomized product that used to be smarter two years ago, can’t talk about any subject that is not engineering or more than a super smart calculator, and in other features like image is the same: old users know, image generstion was far better a a year or more ago than it is today. An image model that still don’t know how to draw hands, generate correct anatomy, brings 70% the time feet with 4 toes and even in the best configuration you can use, if you are really a experienced image user, cannot generate images in a decent quality, without leaving huge noise that make almost impossible to be upscaled without manual photoshop-like retouch. I am pieced for a while, I often send these messages pointing out the gaps here and also sending reports to support. I NEVER, received an answer. The shifts and features are totally based on marketing narrative and there is absolutely no transparency about it. The roadmap only bursts customers and create fishbait products, like @bot that has doubled the price. Real users see the phenomenal volume of shifts that increased the price reducing the limits at least 10x times compared to March, very likely more. If we look how the company reports it’s results becomes clear that mix everything so people, either users and investors, cannot see what is exactly driving the products performance. At the same time, adding everything in a mixed bundle makes more difficult for the customers to claim any harmful practice, since @SpaceXSI does not specify the actual features, technology, caps, or the details of the technology you are of any product. It allows them to shift the Image model to a worse technology like Grok 2.0, claim that it is superior without any real user benchmark. It allows them to cut Grok bot usage by half and get ELON to SAY that the REVENUE the bot was generating WAS LOW FOR THE COST. 🚨 So, combining caps usage, products downgrades and restrict subscribers characters in prompts and make available only the lowest quality for subscribers, still the product still wasn’t making money? This is pure FISHBAIT, when you look to the AI revenue forecast and the actual increase, you see clearly that the growth is being manufactured by squeezing users that get only worst and worst technology and prices and product and drivers breakdown are not explained. This is something that always ends bad. A company that does not worry about customers can’t survive in the long term. The company just disguise the numbers and create peaks until next wave of venture capital investments. There is no concern for a healthy business model, and less concern on making AI accessible in a meaningful way to humanity. The pitch is beautiful, but if you are a user and follow what happens, you simply can’t miss that everything is getting worse, more expensive and what is not worse is actually so expensive that only super high tier users can actually use it in a meaningful way. @elonmusk @poteto @michaelnicollsx @mntruell @BusinessInsider @WIRED @ECONdailycharts @charise_lee