CEO, Postquant Labs - building @quipnetwork, seeding metanations, cultivating
Casper, WY
Joined May 2012
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Thread of things that feel important to me
xitter.cf/cadillion/status/19212…
Projects I care about:
- @quipnetwork post-quantum cryptography & decentralized quantum compute
- @kongiscash ubiquitous TEEs & metanationality
- minimum viable terraforming
- I-80 & I-25 computational corridor
- 12 fl oz, 120w nuclear battery
- pedagogy for the late 21st century
Incredibly important work
One underdiscussed drawback of "crypto agility" is the significant risk of ecosystem fragmentation—we didn't leave central banking behind just to lock ourselves in more walled gardens
Let's align on standards that retain composition & interoperability
Happy to share that @quipnetwork will be pledging 10,000 USD for @thedaofund PQ Wallet Security Initiative. If you run a project that works with Ethereum and care about quantum readiness, I hope you will join us:
initiatives.thedao.fund/init…
Colton Dillion retweeted
IBM, Amazon quantum pricing gets a challenger in Postquant Labs
Read more: thestreet.com/technology/ibm…
ALT IBM, Amazon quantum pricing gets a challenger in Postquant Labs
Colton Dillion retweeted
Quantum computers could be able to run an algorithm that breaks the keys protecting billions of dollars by mid 2028, says @cadillion, Founder at @quipnetwork, a distributed quantum computing cloud that also builds quantum resistant cryptography.
The algorithm is Shor's algorithm, which quantum computers can run to break today's cryptography. According to a technical report published by IonQ, the first machines are expected to run it in mid 2028. IonQ says those computers could run it once every 26 days, and the run would fail half the time. That works out to about two months to break a single key.
Colton says that timeline still matters for large holders. An exchange like Binance has a $13 billion wallet protected by one key, which makes that key a critical piece of infrastructure.
One way to reduce the exposure is key rotation. Colton notes that Coinbase rotates the key every time a user makes a transaction when spending Bitcoin, so a key does not stay in use long enough to be broken. He says there are ways to solve the problem, and that it should not be this hard.
Seeing all the Roadster deniers, it is becoming increasingly plausible to me that humans already developed AI and left Earth, leaving behind the non-technical half, increasingly trapped within cages of AI-psychosis and denial of technological capability
We are their descendants
Will the coming urban purge driven by white collar automation fix this? Or will people choose to destroy instead of maintain?
Cortland County NY is having such a shortage of snowplow drivers that they're considering ending plow routes after 5pm on the 247 miles of road they maintain.
They're 50% under target for the number of drivers they need. Cannot find enough guys.
Cutbacks like this will become more and more normal as the number of working-age men continues to decrease. Funding for DPW departments will continue to drain as the tax base shrinks. That's already happening -- they're only offering $24/hr for new hires, in part because the money isn't there.
The combination of low birthrates, high taxes, high outmigration, and an aging populace is going to absolutely decimate the rural Northeast.
Stuff like this is just the beginning. Some places in NYS are already de-paving roads, permanently closing bridges they can't afford to fix, etc. Looks like plowing is next, and in heavy snow country like NYS, if the roads aren't plowed for the morning and evening commutes, the economy can't move for 6 months out of the year.
One advantage of distributed, community-owned systems as operators of neoclouds: you can spread this opex risk across your global providers
In aggregate the market clears, and the shifting economics of the shared underlying token should naturally signal your nodes to delever
Ben Horowitz explains why a16z doesn't invest in neoclouds after living through the dotcom bubble
"If you get into a pathological debt situation, that can wreck anybody. It's why, by the way, we're not invested in any of these neoclouds, for that reason. That whole thing scares me, having been through it."
"It can end up being a very dangerous arbitrage business where you can get upside down easily."
"You look at Loud Cloud just as an example, here's a simple thing that happened to us in 1999. Bandwidth was $1,500 a megabit. And you couldn't get it, it was very hard to get. And so you had to get a long-term contract, three years."
"By 2001 it was $50 a megabit. So if you were holding bandwidth, you were just dead."
"So that kind of thing is so out of the control of the entrepreneur. And so different than what we'd like to fund. That, you know, it just scared me to death."
The importance of networked, community-maintained and community-operated systems—not just the software!—becomes even more important as the persistence and number of agentic attackers increase
I was recently listening to people opine about job situations, and some with physical labor jobs expressed frustration that these automatable white collar jobs were still paid more than their riskier, less comfortable field work
I don't expect this to be the case for long
If someone can't rise above the API, they have the choice to return below or beside the API
Obviously this is a fucked up situation, and I expect people will turn to military risk as an alternative to capital risk and labor risk until we create new equilibria of shared returns