Senior Analyst @omkaracap | Ex - Venture Capital | Views are personal and not recommendations
Mumbai, India
Joined March 2011
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A summary of 'How to calculate ROIC and handle common issues ' authored by Michael Mauboussin and Dan Callahan.
therikinshah.wordpress.com/2…
@mjmauboussin
Was invested around ₹350 when hardly anyone believed. The thesis was never about the quarter: deep science, customer relationships, and a technocrat promoter who compounds capability.
You'd know the pattern from Laurus.
Rikin Shah, CFA retweeted
In case you're confused about what's going on with Elon Musk tanking the neoclouds, here's the timeline of everything that's happened
> Oct 13: Chamath posts a chart of $CRWV bonds yielding 15%. Musk replies one word. "Yikes"
> Oct 14: $CRWV falls 15.5% in one day. $NBIS -10%, $IREN -10%. Gartner warns the same day that 80% of neoclouds could disappear by 2030
> Oct 15: $CRWV credit default swaps hit a RECORD 1,100+ bps. The market is pricing a 60%+ chance they default within 5 years. Their 2031 bonds yield 16%
> Oct 16: the bonds fall under 80 cents. Distressed. $CRWV down another 12%. The stock lost about 25% that week
> Oct 19: Goldman upgrades $CRWV to Buy anyway. Stock does nothing
> Oct 22: $NBIS raises $3.5B from Citi. It matures in ONE year. That's the kind of money still available to these guys
> Oct 25: a clip of $NBIS's CEO from GTC Berlin goes around X. He admits debt markets and asset-backed financing have "temporarily dried up"
> Oct 25: Musk goes in. "200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation." Says debt markets are shut for anyone without real revenue outside AI data centers. Says SpaceX just closed $40B of debt to buy GPUs because they have Starlink and launch revenue
> Someone asks if he's tanking them so he can buy one cheap. Musk: "SpaceX is not buying any neoclouds. Pointless"
> Sunday night: $CRWV and $NBIS down another 2.3% overnight. $IREN -2%
$CRWV is down 38% in a month. $NBIS is down 33%
Also worth noting - SpaceX sells AI compute too. Anthropic's deals with SpaceXAI could be worth up to $84.5B through 2029. Musk is a competitor talking about his competition and might just be trying to starve his competitors with x
Rikin Shah, CFA retweeted
exponential tech still obeys thermodynamics lol you should check the 2nd law
1 gold atom ≥ 1 D-T fusion (17.6 MeV) → ~74 MWh/oz
Hg-198 = 10% of mercury, world output ~3 kt/yr → ≤ ~300 t gold/yr even at 100% yield
that’s still ~10% of mine supply
and EEEEEEEEVENNNNN if we have fusion reactors so energy costs 0
we wouldn't find enough mercury to make gold
But for Indian players manufacturing via the Acetic Acid route, the spreads may have contracted!
Fun fact: The solvent behind GLP-1 weight-loss drugs has nearly tripled in 2 months.
China industrial-grade acetonitrile: ¥7,700/t (mid-Aug) → ~¥21,500/t (mid-Oct).
Biggest buyers are no longer agchem plants; it's peptide API makers for semaglutide & tirzepatide.
The catch: ~70% of China's supply is a byproduct of acrylonitrile units. Nobody makes it on purpose.
Rikin Shah, CFA retweeted
Modi luck strikes again. Thanks to Elon diatribe, within barely two days, Indians now see how dangerous Starlink can be. Modi again becomes the saviour without lifting a finger 🤣
BREAKING: Zelensky says he has been betrayed by Trump, that Elon Musk and Trump deliberately blocked Starlink in Ukraine overnight and that people have been killed as a result. "I am sure they knew what they did, absolutely. Because it was 1am at night, Starlink was blocked by SpaceX and the United States," he tells Piers Morgan.
"This decision will bring a lot of human losses. Of course, people will die." He said interceptors that rely on Starlink did not work, and that "this is not the right side of history."
Asked if he is angry with Musk, Zelensky said yes, calling it a big mistake.
"Now Putin is laughing because, I mean this is for him, simple victory," he says on the Trump-Russia diesel deal.
Rikin Shah, CFA retweeted
Good data.. But you should consider largecap allocations in Large & Mid cap, Flexi, Multi asset categories as well
If one combines that numbers can meaningfully change
Rikin Shah, CFA retweeted
Pantomath: Banker, Buyer and Seller
A Mumbai investment bank's own funds keep turning up in the deals it sells. The investors who buy those deals have done badly.
Will SEBI look into this potential conflict?
read only in @BWBusinessworld @anuragbatrayo
businessworld.in/article/pan…
Rikin Shah, CFA retweeted
Key disadvantages of allowing Starlink in India include:
National security risks: Foreign-controlled network limits India's ability to shut off service in sensitive border areas or ensure availability during crises. Past reports of terminals with militants or smugglers raise misuse concerns.
Data sovereignty issues: Laser links could route traffic outside Indian gateways, complicating monitoring and lawful interception.
High costs: Hardware and monthly fees likely far exceed affordable terrestrial options like Jio or Airtel, limiting rural access.
Market impact: Could disrupt local telecoms and foster over-reliance on a single US provider instead of domestic alternatives.
Rikin Shah, CFA retweeted
360 degree turn in geopolitics and the world dynamics.
Breaking: china defends india against Elon musk.
Elon musk said Space X follow all the Indian rules for 5 years it has not been given approval to run starlink in india.
China's Global Times said : Chinese car company is following all the rules but has not been given approval in US and has been blocked with 100% tarrif.
Elon said : Is ambani real boss of india ?
Global times asked: Is Elon real boss of US ?
Follow @Globalexplainer
Rikin Shah, CFA retweeted
Gee. Any guesses what triggered Elon’s tweet?
🚨 Jio plans 1,600 satellites, 23 ground stations to expand connectivity across India
Remote villages, islands and border outposts are among the key focus areas.
More details 👇
moneycontrol.com/news/busine…
Rikin Shah, CFA retweeted
Leader of Opposition, ladies and gentlemen. Shitting on his own country because he hates the man who is a democratically elected prime minister of India.
Rikin Shah, CFA retweeted
How much for 4 days of work a year??????? 😂😂😂
How can anyone defend this club?!
Mancini held 2 contracts during his time at Manchester City. The official agreement provided him with a basic salary of €1.69M net per year.
The 2nd was a supplementary deal with Al Jazira, an Abu Dhabi club also owned by Sheikh Mansour, who paid him €2.03M for doing consultancy work for just 4 days a year. [@Gazzetta_it]
