Independent research firm distilling and forecasting political developments for the capital markets. For all inquiries, please contact [email protected]
Washington, DC
Joined November 2011
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Without an extension, ACA subsidies expire at end of 2025. Kim Monk remarks "it’s unfortunate because there are any number of compromises that could be crafted to better target the subsidies in exchange for extending them and stabilizing the market"
@CNBC via @StephanieDhue
What a second Trump administration could mean for your money cnb.cx/4hpsNZX
Capital Alpha's @kimmonkk discusses why it’s possible President-elect Trump could end up supporting Biden’s proposal that Medicare and Medicaid cover GLP-1 weight-loss drugs.
@vicrek via @MarketWatch
Will Trump nix Biden’s coverage plan for weight-loss drugs? It’ll be a close call. marketwatch.com/story/will-t…
Capital Alpha's @iankatz: "Like most presidents, neither Harris nor Trump have very strong views on financial regulation that we're aware of. So that means most policy will depend on who exactly the regulators are."
From @byclairew via @AmerBanker
americanbanker.com/news/pres…
Consensus may think Trump would be positive for U.S. defense. Byron Callan disagrees: “Put aside the rhetoric on, ‘oh, the GOP is strong on defense’ and look at the reality of what people are saying... There's a pretty profound gap between those two points of view.”
@JBogaisky
Capital Alpha’s Rob Smith cautions against reading too much into Trump’s policy change. In his view, international drug reference pricing is way too instinctual for Trump to close the door on any potential approach to applying the concept in the US.
nytimes.com/2024/10/08/healt…
Even in the case of a GOP sweep in November, “Republicans will be reluctant to tear out the IRA root and branch,” says Capital Alpha's James Lucier. “There will be a lot of [clean energy] projects in Republican districts they do not want to uproot."
bloomberg.com/features/2024-…
Byron Callan expects a CR to December, with next steps TBD by the outcome of this year’s elections, and expanded defense spending: “Congress is likely to add to the FY25 budget request, though impacts on contractors will be uneven.”
From @ValerieInsinna via @BreakingDefense
F-35s, frigates and FRA woes: Here are the issues facing Congress in upcoming FY25 budget process breakingdefense.com/2024/09/…
While the trend of increased defense spending is likely to hold up over the next few years, Byron Callan notes: “It is a cyclical business. As much as people talk about 10- year demand cycles, politics can change and security assessments can change and so too can defence demand.”
The leading 15 defence contractors are forecast to log free cash flow of $52bn in 2026 — almost double their combined cash flow at the end of 2021. on.ft.com/3XjWqVx
Per @iankatz, the confirmation timeline for @ChristyGRomero depends on "whether the Republicans try to peel off a couple of Democrats against her. They won't vote for her, but that's not the same as going all out to stop her."
From @peteschroeder, @michelleprice36 via @Reuters
Capital Alpha's Rob Smith "imagine[s] challenges to Medicare’s coverage determination process from companies that have had trouble getting insurers to pay for them, such as digital therapeutics or wearables."
@ShelbyJLiv via @endpts
Back from a fantastic Spain vacation and dove right into what the Chevron ruling could mean for digital health. Read it in today's edition of Endpoints' health tech newsletter:
reports.endpts.com/107e23d7/…
“The FDA has faced widespread criticism for its slow pace of reviewing millions of e-cigarette marketing submissions and is unlikely to want to place itself in a similar position with a high volume of LDT (laboratory developed test) filings,” Capital Alpha’s Rob Smith said.
Ian Katz doesn't expect Barr’s signature bank capital overhaul to pass without making compromises to appease Powell: “There is no precedent that we can recall of a significant regulatory matter that has had this level of disagreement at the Fed.”
@kjspeakstruth @ctorresreporter
Michael Barr's bank capital overhaul has faced one of Wall Street’s fiercest lobbying campaigns, but rare pushback from inside the Fed may prove trickier to navigate. trib.al/CxW2916
Byron Callan discusses the factors that will bear on U.S. defense sentiment in the coming year in an outlook piece for @defense_news.
Read the full article, “Budgets, presidents and the defense industry: What to watch in 2024,” below.
defensenews.com/outlook/2023…
Ian Katz says that even if the Fed adjusts the proposed tightening of capital regulations before a rule is finalized, the changes made would not satisfy bankers.
“It seems clear that a lawsuit is likely."
@FlitterOnFraud @nytimes
Banks have become increasingly frustrated with their federal regulators and, in a break with tradition, have brought the battle out into the open in an effort to overturn new rules and challenge the legitimacy of regulators’ powers. nyti.ms/45YXHCv
Robert Kaminski discusses the scope of the Biden Administration's new executive order on AI and the likelihood of Congressional action toward regulation.
"It is not the White House's first word on AI and won't be the last."
@byclairew @AmerBanker
americanbanker.com/news/bide…
Ian Katz on the Fed's anticipated proposal to lower the cap for debit card transaction fees: "The Fed will be trying to thread the needle, reducing the cap enough to mollify the merchants without excessively punishing its own regulated entities."
@peteschroeder @Reuters
Capital Alpha's James Lucier joined @CNBC's "The Exchange" yesterday to discuss the leadership limbo in the House. Thanks for hosting, @KellyCNBC!
cnbc.com/video/2023/10/12/ho…
Fred Lawrence believes the scale of independent oil exploration/production will make it difficult for an XOM-OXD merger to meaningfully reduce competition: “People just think about big oil and they forget that there’s a very healthy independent community out there competing."
Why the FTC may shy away from a fight with Exxon over its Pioneer merger trib.al/FrqZ7Wk
“Jim Lucier is the most dead-pan analyst I know in Washington.” – @BloombergTV Surveillance anchor @tomkeene
Thanks for hosting Capital Alpha’s James Lucier this morning!