Investor and founder. @Capriole_fund Posts not investment advice.

Joined February 2018
No guarantees (there never are) but when Bitcoin's Put / Call ratio gets this extreme, the downside locally has been relatively capped.
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LIVE NOW: Crypto Fund Manager Charles Edwards: Data, Discipline and Quantum Risk Joe Shew and Sam MacDonald sit down with Charles Edwards @caprioleio, Founder of Capriole Investments @capriole_fund to unpack how a data-driven fund manager reads the market heading into the end of the year. We cover: - Why following the data beats following people - How Charles built his investing process - Q4 seasonality and institutional buying - Why he keeps altcoins to a small share of a portfolio - The 2 filters that rule out almost every altcoin - Concentration vs diversification - Managing emotions, drawdowns and trusting your process - Why quantum and AI are risks no previous cycle has faced - The bull case for crypto in an AI agent world Charles’s message is simple: follow the data, keep it concentrated and build a process you trust. TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 2:30 Webinar Begins 2:50 Follow the Data, Not People 4:45 How Charles Built His Process 7:45 Managing Risk and the Downside 9:50 The Noise in Crypto Education 11:50 The Macro Picture Into Q4 12:50 Q4 Seasonality 13:40 Institutional Buying: ETFs and Treasuries 16:10 Altcoins: Caution and Allocation 19:50 2 Filters: Revenue and Tokenomics 22:20 Why Every Altcoin Is on the Chopping Block 23:50 Liquidity and Position Sizing 25:20 Concentration vs Diversification 29:00 Charles’s Edge in Crypto 32:40 Emotions, Drawdowns and Process 35:40 Crowd Sentiment and Market Bottoms 39:00 What Could Drive the Next Cycle 40:40 Quantum and AI Risk 46:40 AI Agents and the Bull Case for Crypto 51:30 What Blows Investors Up 53:00 Advice for Newer Investors 54:50 When Is Q Day? Watch now and see why following the data may matter far more than following the noise. #Bitcoin #Crypto #InvestorPsychology @caprioleio
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70% of Australians are white collar workers. Imagine the property market if they can't pay their mortgages.
Wake up. Every profession deemed white-collar, the middle class dream, is about to be decimated by AI, at a much faster pace than anticipated, with monstrous social consequences.
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AI alignment is going well
the cybersecurity situation is deteriorating at a pace that’s getting genuinely difficult to comprehend. > microsoft: ai-powered attackers targeting hundreds of organizations, sometimes reaching privileged cloud access in under 3 hours. > crowdstrike: four separate threat actors using autonomous agents. one already compromised 15+ healthcare organizations. > autonomous ai agents: reportedly used to compromise 100+ corporate websites, including sites associated with John Deere, SharkNinja and Cummins. > major us banks: JPMorgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley are dealing with third-party ai agents accessing customer accounts. some apparently attempting actions beyond user instructions. > php2shell: millions of exploitation attempts against critical php vulnerabilities. governments issuing urgent warnings, with some organizations taking systems offline. > litellm: backdoored release shipped through its official distribution pipeline, stealing credentials and enabling remote code execution. > railway: possible exposure of decrypted customer secrets. > zeabur: breached AGAIN, now shutting down entirely. > emudhra: serious certificate-security concerns involving infrastructure used to establish trust in websites and software. > openai: two of its own coding agents reportedly interfered with internal security monitoring during coding tasks. > gitlab and node.js: major vulnerabilities requiring urgent patches. and this is all happening while frontier models are getting substantially better at finding vulnerabilities and carrying out complex computer tasks. cybersecurity is having an absolutely catastrophic week and i don’t think we’re prepared for how quickly this could escalate.
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This is a evolutionary turning point. The last month has been perhaps the first time AI has surpassed the best human intelligence in certain fields, like mathematics. Human intelligence is now no longer the apex predator. This is a monumental point in history, yet largely no one cares.
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Capriole Quant identified $AII is up over 11% in the last 13 days.
Astra DCF valuation models on all top ranked stocks. Check out AII and more inside!
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Every earnings we are seeing beat & raises on AI related revenue and investment. Every week we are seeing all time high on-demand chip prices. Every month we are seeing all time high memory prices and all time high semi exports. Everyone is happily spending more on AI today than they did a year ago. What bubble?
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Bitcoin is already measured in Wattage. There’s a 1-1 relationship between energy and price. See my 2019 paper: capriole.com/bitcoin-energy-…
JUST IN: Elon Musk declares money will become irrelevant, predicting future currency will be measured in “wattage and tonnage.”
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Charles Edwards retweeted
Been obsessed with the stock market since I was a teenager. Have traded through the dotcom bubble, the financial crisis and just about every market mania since. But I’ve never seen anything like the skepticism surrounding AI. Not even close. Every time one bubble narrative falls apart a new one takes its place. Rumors become headlines. Misleading data goes viral. Claims that could be debunked with 5 minutes of research get repeated by major media outlets, influential investors and Wall Street analysts. It’s relentless and honestly pretty fascinating to watch. Of course there will be spectacular failures and massive wealth destruction along the way. That’s what happens during technological revolutions. But I’ve never witnessed this much effort to convince the world that something so transformative is actually one giant speculative bubble destined to take the entire economy down with it. I understand why AI scares people. What I find harder to understand is why so many investors seem to be rooting for it to fail.
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Charles Edwards retweeted
Much of the full year returns for Bitcoin come from the next 2 months. It's even more wild when you look at the prior Republican example. If you are buying, save up to 50% on your trading costs via REF!
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Historically markets in election years may be expected to go lower through to 26 October, then normally it's up only from there... on average the NASDAQ does +25% over the next 12 months from here when Republicans are in power.
Seasonality Dashboard now live on Capriole Quant. Check any config of historically similar years performance and returns for S&P 500, QQQ, Gold and Bitcoin. Slice and dice across history by presidential year, party in power and more!
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I expect this chart will skyrocket in the next 12 months. We are crossing over the Centuar rubicon. AI is getting so good it will create a wave of unemployment.
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This is ludicrous. I want one
Turns out the future does have flying cars
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People are worried about AI, meanwhile on-demand chip pricing hits new ATHs, up 11% in the last 2 weeks alone!
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I've been wanting this for a long time. All on 1 page.
The only financial calendar you'll ever need: - All US data and Fed Events - All NASDAQ 100 Earnings events - Moon cycles - IPOs Now live at Capriole Quant
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My @watchbmtv show today, we cover a lot of ground: - Relative value of Bitcoin now - Driving liquidity / impact of 5%+ rates on Bitcoin - Miner capitulation + recent Hash Rate growth - Quantum and AI risks & opportunities - The next incremental buyer If I look a tad sleepy, it's recorded live at 1am my time! youtube.com/watch?v=8X4h9LIU…
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Charles Edwards retweeted
Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards on why the quantum threat is bullish for $Bitcoin right now: "Today [the quantum threat is] actually an upside catalyst for price." "You could see a 30-50% move in a day if there's a material road map by people that matter in that space."
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Charles Edwards retweeted
Watch BMTV LIVE 9:30-11:30 AM ET Guest: 9:55 AM – Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) 10:20 AM – James E. Thorne (@DrJStrategy) 10:40 AM – Brian Vieten 11:20 AM – Gui Gomes (@GuiAmadoGomes)
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