Le Champ of Trading

The S&P 500 just left a BIG GAP on the chart. $SPY closed at 769.36 yesterday. Today it never even made it back to 762. That's a 1% hole sitting right above us. So I pulled every gap like this on SPY since 1995. Not just the ones that worked. All of them. 48 gaps between 0.9% and 1.15%. ALL 48 got filled. Half of them within 5 trading days. 71% within 10. 81% within 22. Here are the last 10 times SPY gapped down like this: 1/20/26: -1.00%, filled in 4 days 8/1/25: -0.91%, filled in 2 days 4/21/25: -0.89%, filled in 1 day 4/10/25: -2.76%, filled in 10 days 4/4/25: -2.02%, filled in 3 days 4/3/25: -2.93%, filled in 20 days 3/10/25: -1.11%, filled in 11 days 1/27/25: -1.36%, filled in 4 days 8/5/24: -1.75%, filled in 4 days 8/2/24: -1.11%, filled in 8 days Even in the April 2025 crash, every single gap got filled within a month. Now to be fair... "always fills" doesn't mean fast. The slow ones were deep bear markets, like 2008. That's not what this looks like to me with SPY still way above its 200-day. Let's go over all of the gaps we have had now... 3,671 gap downs Among those gap downs? 87% of them have filled within 5 sessions. 92% of the them have filled within 10 sessions 95% of the time within 20 sessions. As you can see, 4,665 gap-ups that we've had. You still have 117 that have never filled. More often than not, the gap downs fill. But even out of those 4,665 gap ups that we've had. 83% of them fill within 5 sessions. 87% of them fill within 10 sessions. 90% of them fill within 20 sessions. Out of the entire daily chart, we've seen 8,336 gaps, and those are your probabilities within the window of time for the gap downs and the gap ups. Not to mention the imbalances that I've been tracking over the last 2 years, where 96% of them have been eliminated within 35 days (just like the one here at 755 got eliminated by the October 30th deadline, which is now showing that we will see a move to 779 by December 2). Thank you all for your attention to these matters!!! — Obnoxious Bull Jonesy #SPX #SPY #SP500 #ES_F #QQQ #NDX #CL_F #US10Y #TLT