Full-Time Trader focused on equities, options, and market structure. Sharing real-time ideas and market education. Founder of Altori Research @altoriresearch
Joined May 2022
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Hope you all are having an enjoyable weekend! Seeing a lot of drama again on X so decided to spend most of the day off social media and just rest up and enjoy life.
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Dm me to collect your prize.
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Clint Awana retweeted
$SPY Same 300 trades as my other studies. Same 80% win rate. The stop is back at -50%... but this time I sell the whole position the second it hits +20%.
Starting account: $2,000
$500 every trade
Win rate: 80%. My actual win rate.
Take profit: all out at +20%
Stop loss: -50%
300 trades
Result: $2,000 turned into $11,000.
Sounds fine, right? Now compare it to the exact same trades with the ladder (1/3 off at +25, +50, +75):
Ladder: $47,000
All out at +20%: $11,000
Same entries. Same losers. Same stop. That's $36,000 left on the table just from getting scared on the winners.
Here's why...
When you sell everything at +20%, a winner pays $100 and a loser costs $250. You need to win 72% of the time just to break even. At 80% you're barely ahead, making $30 a trade.
With the ladder, a winner pays $250 and a loser costs $250. You only need to win half the time to break even. Same 80% win rate, $150 a trade.
Your stop protects your account. Your exits decide how much you actually make.
Most traders think the problem is their entries. It's usually what they do after they're in.
Clint Awana retweeted
$SPY Same trades. Same entries. Same win rate. Only one thing changed... I took the stop off.
Starting account: $2,000
$500 every trade
Win rate: 80%. My actual win rate.
1/3 off at +25%, 1/3 at +50%, 1/3 at +75%
Stop loss: none. Losers ride to -100%.
300 trades.
No 100%+ winners in here either.
With a -50% stop: $2,000 turned into $47,000.
With no stop: $2,000 turned into $32,000.
That's $15,000 gone, and not one winner changed. Every bit of that came from letting losers die instead of cutting them.
But the money isn't even the scary part...
Without a stop, every loss costs $500. On a $2,000 account that means 4 losses in a row and you're done. No more trades. Game over.
Watch the dip near the start of the video. 5 losses in a row cut the account in half. It only survived because there was already profit built up. If that happens on day one, you're done.
Your win rate doesn't protect you. Your stop does.
"It'll come back" is how good traders blow up accounts.
Simulated results, not real trades.
What happens if you take $SPY 0DTE calls with the same $500 every single trade for 300 trades?
Starting account: $2,000
Win rate: 80%. That's my actual win rate.
1/3 off at +25%, 1/3 at +50%, 1/3 at +75%
Hard stop at -50%. No exceptions.
And NO 100%+ trades. The max win in this sim is 75%. Anyone who's been in Altori knows I hit 100-200% bangers all the time... none of those are in here. This is the boring version.
A full winner pays +$250. A loser costs -$250. Same size on both sides... so where's the edge?
Win rate. 4 out of 5 trades pay you, and the 5th one is capped. That's +$150 a trade on average. Over 300 trades the account went from $2,000 to $47,000.
Look at the red bars at the bottom. The losses are there the whole time. Back to back. Sometimes a few in a row. The account still goes up because no loss was ever allowed to get past -50%.
This only works with discipline and following the rules...
Same 80% win rate. Change two things:
You panic and sell every winner at +25%.
You let losers ride to -80% because "it'll come back."
Your edge drops from $150 a trade to $20. Over 300 trades that's $6,000 instead of $45,000. Same entries, same win rate.
The setup didn't make the money. Following the rules every single time did.
Most people don't have a strategy problem. They have a follow-through problem.
These are of course simulated results, based on my own statistics, not real trades.
Clint Awana retweeted
What happens if you take $SPY 0DTE calls with the same $500 every single trade for 300 trades?
Starting account: $2,000
Win rate: 80%. That's my actual win rate.
1/3 off at +25%, 1/3 at +50%, 1/3 at +75%
Hard stop at -50%. No exceptions.
And NO 100%+ trades. The max win in this sim is 75%. Anyone who's been in Altori knows I hit 100-200% bangers all the time... none of those are in here. This is the boring version.
A full winner pays +$250. A loser costs -$250. Same size on both sides... so where's the edge?
Win rate. 4 out of 5 trades pay you, and the 5th one is capped. That's +$150 a trade on average. Over 300 trades the account went from $2,000 to $47,000.
Look at the red bars at the bottom. The losses are there the whole time. Back to back. Sometimes a few in a row. The account still goes up because no loss was ever allowed to get past -50%.
This only works with discipline and following the rules...
Same 80% win rate. Change two things:
You panic and sell every winner at +25%.
You let losers ride to -80% because "it'll come back."
Your edge drops from $150 a trade to $20. Over 300 trades that's $6,000 instead of $45,000. Same entries, same win rate.
The setup didn't make the money. Following the rules every single time did.
Most people don't have a strategy problem. They have a follow-through problem.
These are of course simulated results, based on my own statistics, not real trades.
Clint Awana retweeted
✅ $SPY 764c +70%
Livestream setup win
Top is in? - 10/23 Live Trading xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1yxBePgNV…
Clint Awana retweeted
🚀🔥🚀 $QQQ 708c +150%
Clint Awana retweeted
🚀🔥🚀 $QQQ 708c +125%
ALERTED IN LIVESTREAM
Clint Awana retweeted
Top is in? - 10/23 Live Trading xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1yxBePgNV…