olderthanold retweeted
JUST IN: $5 TRILLION NVIDIA CEO JENSEN HUANG JUST SAID LIVE ON CNBC THAT AI WILL NEED A "SYSTEM OF RECORD" TO VERIFY WHAT'S TRUE
SAYING THE QUIET PART OUT LOUD. #BITCOIN 🚀
olderthanold retweeted
Unrealized gains tax for Gen-Z:
You buy a Pokémon card for $50.
Someone offers you $500 for it. You say no. You love that card. You're keeping it.
The government says: "Cool, but that card is worth $500 now. You owe us $100 in taxes."
You: "…I didn't sell it."
Government: "Don't care. Pay up."
You don't have $100 lying around. So you're forced to sell the card you love just to pay a tax on money you never received.
Next month? That card drops back to $50.
Your card is gone. Your money is gone. And the government shrugs.
That's a wealth tax on unrealized gains. They don't pay you back the tax...
Now picture this.
Your mom calls you crying. She has to sell the house she raised you in. Not because she can't afford it. She's lived there 30 years. It's paid off.
But some website says it's worth more now and the government says she owes $15,000 she doesn't have.
So she sells your childhood home. The kitchen where she made you breakfast. The doorframe where she marked your height every birthday.
Gone.
To pay a tax on money that was never real.
Now picture the opposite.
Your dad put everything into his small business. For 20 years he built it from nothing. One year the business is "valued" at $2 million on paper. He owes a massive tax bill. He empties his savings. Sells his truck. Borrows money. Pays it.
Next year the market crashes. His business is worth $200,000.
He lost everything to pay a tax on a number that doesn't exist anymore.
Does the government give him his money back?
No.
Does the government give him his truck back?
No.
Does the government care?
No.
They sold this idea as "taxing billionaires." But billionaires have armies of lawyers, offshore accounts, and trusts. They'll be fine.
You know who won't be fine? Your mom. Your dad. Your neighbor with a small business. The farmer down the road who's had the same land for four generations and now has to sell it because dirt got expensive.
You're not taxing wealth. You're taxing people for owning things.
It's like getting a parking ticket for a car you might drive somewhere someday.
They want you to own nothing and be happy. To fund the fraud, waste and abuse of the welfare state they created.
There is enough money. More tax isn't needed. It's all a lie. But you've been gaslit into believing this is a rich vs poor debate.
I hope you understand what's at stake.
olderthanold retweeted
You only need ChatGPT + a laptop + 1 hour/day to make $8,500/month.
I’ve prepared the exact step-by-step guide.
Normally $179, but it’s free for 24 hours.
To get it:
• Like, Repost & Peply "NEED"
• Follow me so I can DM you
olderthanold retweeted
🚨MINDBLOWING STRC SINGULARITY🚨
Let's say Strategy buys 1,000 Bitcoin today with STRC issuance.
Will probably be more, but I like clean math.
Bitcoin is at $65,300.
1,000 x $65,300 = $65.3 million raised
The annual dividend obligation on this raise:
$65.3 million x 0.1125 = $7,346,250
10 years of an 11.25% dividend would be $73,462,500.
After 10 years at a 25% Bitcoin CAGR, $65.3 million grows to approximately $608 million.
That’s about a 9.3× increase over the decade.
Spread captured after 10 years of dividend payments:
$534.58 MILLION.
From 1 DAY of STRC issuance.
And you're bearish on MSTR?
LOL
olderthanold retweeted
You are a bit early imo, but accurate again
7100/7200 on the table until March, maybe cuts into April for a bit, then at least a 10-20% discount
Better to be early🤝
olderthanold retweeted
As a futures market trader since 1981 my main method of analyzing opportunities has been Bayesian probability. This X post by my friend Aksel is the best single brief and understandable summary of Bayesian thinking that I have seen posted
Bayesians rock
olderthanold retweeted
Buying Bitcoin $BTC at least when it crosses the -40 bear market territory has proven profitable every single cycle since 2014.
Every -50% decline buy was profitable within 6 months.
History is not a guarantee of future returns is not investing, it's 3rd string quarterbacking
$IBIT $BITO $ETH $BMNR $CLK $SPX
olderthanold retweeted
$BTC is at a turning point
And I am now mocked or dismissed just like in 2023 when everyone was regurgitating "macros" and why they are terrible for BTC and SPX
As I've explained since November, also on my YT channel, I have 2 scenarios, very binary, for 2026
1. impulsive 5 waves to 160k+, and then big drop until 2026 end, more than 80% in total, inducing a "too bigger of a risk to buy BTC", cause too many people want BTC now because they didn't get it at 20k
2. a sideways move between 120k-70k, creating a big range for 2026 and taking both of the extremes, where traders are massacred for an entire year, grabbing liquidity for a huge expansion, with moves that won't look like other bear markets - big volatility but lower discounts (50% ish)
First scenario is invalidated imo, watching February price action as explained
Second scenario, while everyone still posts fractals from 2022, is on the table, and now I am mocked and dismissed again just like 2023
I am here to tell you, again, that 2 years from now, people will get sober and come and ask me questions while looking at past projections (just like the post bellow)
While everyone was drunk with bearish macros and "new lows coming bro", me and some other folks here were projecting a new ATH before the halving - guess how that left them - they all tried to catch up with the trades higher or got 100% into shitcoins
Now everyone is either -80% or not touching crypto ever again
I am 5 times more exposed now.
Kept posting that even tho I was all in BTC since November 2022, now I think ETH and strong alts will cover massive amounts of ground from 2026 to 2028
Which is the next SHMITA year, and will be short lived
“But macros and rates and fed balance and shmitas dont matter anymore bro”
When these things start aligning you will see how X analysts try to catch up with the trade again.
Next SHMITA year starts September 2028, which is the equivalent of Sept 2020 or Sept 2016, and if this cycle was a normal extended one, with lesser gains (700%) and lesser discounts (50%), next cycle might be left translated
Which means there is a lot of ground to cover, for BTC also, in a very short amount of time, while yields give the final signal, rates will be bottoming very soon, a "big beautiful bill" will come up next (20 trillion imo), FED balance sheet expansion, and the most amount of $ stablecoin printed in the shortest amount of time
Dollar hyperinflation, roaring twenties.
Also metals are telling you the same shit. Market cap to 50 trillions, imagine were crypto market cap will be in the next 2 years.
I was prepared since 2023, not now, now I just adjust my positioning for this trade.
Not here to convince anyone or sell you anything. You decide for yourself.
- Bear Hitler
Stupid myths about #bitcoin
1. “Bear market last more than 1 year”
No.
2. “Consolidation Year after bottom”
No.
3. “ATH comes after halving”
Soon No.
olderthanold retweeted
More and more wrong bearish chart patterns are being posted on $BTCUSD to confirm a narrative which is usually the result of extreme emotions.
Chances are higher for a rebound. I'm interested to see a buyers strength around the support area.
olderthanold retweeted
Hey crypto followers $BTC
The nature of the decline in Bitcoin (now 8 days of lower lows and highs) has all the finger prints of campaign selling, not retail liquidation
Seen this before hundreds of times over the decades
Never know when of course this pattern ends
Note to trolls - red lines are just discussion points so put away your screen capture tool
olderthanold retweeted
$IBIT hit $100b for a hot second, which in retrospect exactly marked the top. Down to $60b today, which is still wild for a 500 day old ETF. For context, it could stay stuck at this level for the next three years and it would STILL be the all time fastest ETF to hit 60b
olderthanold retweeted
SPX s BTC Great Decoupling
for the 89th time😆
I've talked about these windows since 2023, now this one is similar to '21 summer
I keep getting more data points to the table, and I am still bombarded with the same 2022 chart
BTC vs S&P500 decoupling
It is not abnormal for this behavior in the market, people just forget and everytime they said it's over for BTC 😂
After a small window of decoupling, there is a large window of BTC catching up, as bigger and bigger gains are made in BTC
Btw, everytime this decoupling happened, some kind of terrible news came for BTC and crypto. Every time😂
This time gonna be different?
olderthanold retweeted
I'm not interested to find the support because I'm not trying to catch the falling knife.
I'm interested to find a bottom reversal pattern.
A double bottom.
A H&S bottom.
I will always miss the boat if it is a V reversal.
Important to know your strength and weaknesses.
