cinnamina

it looks like a good day to try a pack on @trylimitless , so I tested something i opened @PayBox inside my claude, asked it to send $2 in USDC on Base to my limitless account i approved the transaction myself, and it landed in a couple of seconds then I went through the fixtures and started building a pack: Germany, Slovakia, Kosovo, Sweden and Andorra was supposed to be my pick butt a plot twist the minimum for a pack is $5 and I had about $2 so no pack today :( i still took one single trade instead ⤷ Andorra vs Gibraltar, Gibraltar YES at 13c ⤷ $1.90 in, average price at 14c ⤷ if it wins, it pays $13.10. that's 6.9x ⤷ if it doesn't, I lose the $1.90 it's a long shot, let's see what they have for me what I loved most was me being able to ⤷ sending USDC through an AI to my prediction market wallet i still double checked the address and network before approving tho andd ⤷ the 6.9x on the screen is what I could win, not what I've won i'll update you guys after the match :)

bro put his huang in so many chips 😂

i've spent 85+ hours in the last 3 weeks staring at prediction markets mostly reading resolution rules, watching order books move and understanding why prices moved and why they didn't using: ⤷ polymarket, kalshi and limitless docs ⤷ UMA's oracle dispute page ⤷ polygonscan ⤷ youtube ⤷ claude i'll add more later tho and i do it without stress most times & i love it that's how i know i picked the right niche and i'm still learning :) how many hours have you spent learning yours?

$3.9 million, that's what polymarket says it's returning after the october 29th attack on its international platform $2.7M refunded 726 drained wallets, while $1.19M compensated 5,500+ affected users by october 30, 689 wallets were fully refunded, with the rest under verification sources @TheRecord, @TheHackersNews but a hack is a different risk from betting one habit helps with both: ⤷ to know which money is for playing ⤷ and which isn't for betting that's what Vault on @parimatch is for it acts as balance separation, a second balance inside your account for money you don't want to bet there are top up and withdraw tabs, taking money back out of Vault is an internal transfer, not the same as withdrawing to an external wallet here's it's use after a win, move part of it into vault so your next bet can't touch it, helps to separate money you don't want to bet with here's how to find it: ⤷ log in ⤷ go to account, ⤷ then vault, below deposit and withdraw image guide shown below vault is separate from your playing balance, only eligible cash can go in, and any wagering requirements must already be completed explore it:parimatch.com vault:parimatch-africa2.net/en/my-…

mbappe not winning the balondor is so controversial that's what an attention seeker would say, now i have your attention let's talk about how a market can put a price on arguments like this, in real time it's called LMSRs most prediction markets you use run on an order book but there's another way to run a market, and it's called LMSR which means logarithmic market scoring rule it was proposed by economist @robinhanson , and the idea is simple be ready for a lot of maths :) what if a market maker was always ready to trade, with a price that moves as people buy? with no waiting for someone to take the other side here is how it works: C = b × ln( e^(q_yes / b) + e^(q_no / b) ) ⤷C is the cost function, that's the market running total ⤷q is how many shares have been sold on each side ⤷b is a setting that decides how deep the prediction market is you don't pay a fixed price, you pay the difference in C before and after your trade let's use b = 100 and a market that starts at 50c ⤷ you buy 50 YES shares and pay $28, the price of YES then moves to 62% ⤷ you buy 50 more and pay $34, because the price is now higher, YES now moves to 73% your own buying pushes the price up and that's slippage now the part I like most, the market maker can never lose more than b × 0.693 why? the cap exists because of the maths the formula is built so the market maker's worst case loss is b × ln 2, no matter how much anyone buys with b = 100, the most it can lose is $69 the person who creates the market puts that in up front, and that's the whole risk so b is a trade off ⤷ buy 200 YES at 50c with b = 100 and you pay $143, and the price jumps to 88% ⤷ buy the same 200 with b = 1000 and you pay $105, and the price only moves to 55% a big b means a deep market, low slippage, but the creator risks more money a small b means a thin market, big price swings, but little risk for the creator so the next time you see a price jump on a small market, ask yourself how deep it is in LMSRs, the depth is just a letter "b" thanks for reading :)