For the entire year we've been heads down building. Today I can finally tell you what it is. It's called Forecaster. The whole thing started from something that has always bugged me: You can follow the timeline all day and still not know who's actually right. Everyone sounds certain. Nobody keeps score. So we built the place that does. Every call in the open, win or lose. Find out who's actually right. Then back them. We're calling it skill markets. That's all I'll say for now. More soon on @Forecaster_gg.

Higher.

Seeing a lot of gigabrain threads on how @papertrade_xyz can be exploited. Building new crypto primitives is insanely hard, mad respect to the team for trying. It’s like building an MMO where you have to anticipate every economic attack vector. Game studios hire macroeconomist PhDs to model this. The missing section in the Web3 builder curriculum is using game theory to understand how a game can be exploited, then reverse game theory to design more durable ones. This is why we haven’t seen much crypto innovation since DeFi summer. Intuitively we understand this, but it's time we write a new framework for building in Web3. The good news is AI makes these attack vectors much easier to identify. The article below introduces mechanism design as a framework for building more durable crypto games. If you’re a builder, check it out.

Crypto is firmly in its P/E ratio phase aka the revenue/FDV meta. The mistake is judging startups by current revenue instead of future potential. A good heuristic is to look at the startup and decide if you’re investing in a cash-generating machine today or a world-beating tech company tomorrow. It's why some startups command very high revenue/FDV multiples and some have criminally low multiples despite great revenue. That’s essentially the difference between buying something like $HYPE and another gacha project.

The problem with the “long degeneration” thesis, whereby young people can’t save for a house fiat mining so they’ll speculate and gamble their way there, is that it treats every asset the same. Sure, younger generations are more likely to start investing early to escape the underclass. But do you really think they’re buying $KIMCHI or playing prediction markets instead of longing the shiny new AI stock?

Hot take: PnL is the worst way to rank people for socialFi. People worship the guys at the top of the leaderboard because they think it will lead them to riches, but PnL measures outcomes, not calls. PnL tells you how much a caller made, but it ignores size, timing, and hit rate. It doesn’t tell you if those people got a headstart (aka insiders). It doesn't tell you whether anyone following them actually made anything. So the leaderboard ends up rewarding whoever is best positioned to sell to their own followers.

Up.

Generally think sentiment is a piss poor signal and permabulls convinced we’re going up because sentiment is so bad should also ask themselves what fundamental reason there is to go up - given headwinds like the Dems winning the midterms, more rate hikes and geopolitical tensions. That said, I remain bullish in the short term.

You can feel the anger on the timeline. So many people have been led to despair following the wrong people - buying coins that have gone -75% in the middle of a bull market. “This time it’s different,” you told yourself. It never is. We saw the same thing with AI agents. The narratives change, the outcome doesn’t. What is different this time is the distrust in KOLs has reached boiling point. The social layer is broken and it’s becoming impossible to ignore. The solution is an app where everyone’s track record is visible and those who are actually good rise to the top. This is the most pressing issue we must solve in crypto today.

Very on-brand for BTC to start the day bullish, reverse and liquidate the bulls, then end the day bullish again - all on an illiquid Sunday. Lol.

End the week above 82.8k to confirm the bear trap then run it back to new highs, inshallah.

You will never hear a KOL talk about risk management. Yet watch any interview with someone who's made it over decades across different markets and that's all they ever talk about. Why? Because risk management doesn't sell dreams. It doesn't get clicks. But ask yourself this: are you going to trust someone who's proven over decades, or someone who's popular but whose track record you have zero clue about? Eventually every CT participant comes to this conclusion.

Sure, some of these charts look amazing and the trend is your friend - until it isn’t. If a coin can pump 3x in a month, it can drawdown just as fast. What happens when it loses key moving averages? Are you trailing your stops, or are you willing to roundtrip because you bought the generational bottom and the permabulls told you to only sell at the macro cycle top? That line of thinking is deleterious to your portfolio and I encourage you to formulate your own exit plan ahead of time because no one on CT ever tells you - probably because they don't know themselves.

Oil at $100. Inflation worries rising, rate hike chances increasing. The debasement trade starts to make sense again. But this entire move up from 57k was predicated on the CLARITY Act passing and a clear regulatory path for crypto in the US. With the Dems likely to take the House or Senate, that road looks rocky. As good as the chart looks on the HTF, we could chop for a while before hitting new ATHs. That would indeed be the max pain scenario - a very long chop to take out both bulls and bears. Always plan ahead.

This is the first time I've heard a crypto VC firm talk about identity and my hot take is Paradigm is still one of the few crypto VC firms that are actively thinking about the future of onchain beyond what's trending now - and building it out. Their blog is the first place builders should be looking when getting inspiration for new product ideas.

The general rule about predictions: the further out they are, the harder they are to get right. You know what you’ll do this week. You probably have no idea what you’ll be doing next year. Price predictions work the same way. It’s much easier to predict what price does today or this week than what it does in months or a year. Sounds basic when broken down like this. But we humans love prophetic statements like “500k BTC by next year” and mistake it as conviction when it's really just a foolish statement stated confidently.