Cryptofoiler808

Outlook for $BTC. Midterms approaching. My plans.

We are now 24 days away from the midterms. Historically, $BTC has reacted negatively afterwards in 3/4 instances. My view therefore remains unchanged: any meaningful de-risking is more likely to begin after the midterms rather than before them. I do not expect a new bear market low. However, I do expect a higher low to form after the midterms, potentially an important established low before the next leg towards new highs. There are two main scenarios I’m observing 1.) BTC pumps into the midterms, followed by a 10%+ correction afterwards. 2.) BTC sells off into the midterms, then begins trending higher shortly after. A lot of my trading is about mapping out potential scenarios in advance, then reacting accordingly when the time comes.

If you’re currently sidelined, my approach would be to deploy around 10% of your capital each week, gradually building to full exposure over the next couple of months. Don’t be the person looking back 1-2 years from now with regret because you were too stubborn to pull the trigger, endlessly waiting for lower prices that may never come.

The “Everything Is Priced In” chart. It documents the biggest catalysts and news events throughout each cycle, and more importantly, what tends to happen shortly after them. During every bear market, $BTC gets hit with endless bad news that fuels downside. But once the HTF trend starts shifting, that same negative news becomes what I call FUD through the bull cycle. People become so conditioned to shorting bad news because throughout the bear cycle, negative headlines usually led to lower prices. But when BTC enters a bull cycle and begins doing the inverse, (absorbing the bad news and moving higher), they get caught completely off guard. The headlines still create panic. People still expect lower. But instead of continuing the downtrend, BTC begins absorbing the fear and trending higher regardless. There is usually one major catalyst that confirms the continuation. Last cycle, it was the ETF approval. This cycle, I believe it will be the Clarity Act. We have already seen the early signs of it. The rate hike, Clarity Act speculation and then the failure of the Act were all treated as reasons for BTC to sell off further. Instead, BTC swept the lows and showed strength. That is the difference between a bear market and a bull market. In a bear market, bad news pushes price lower. In a bull market, bad news is used to make people capitulate before price moves higher. Now we have had the rate hike, the Clarity Act failure, and even World War 3 narratives trending. Yet BTC is starting to react positively to the fear rather than negatively. To me, that resilience is one of the clearest signs that the trend has changed. I see no reason these catalysts should play out any differently to previous bull cycle FUD events. Likes/RTs are appreciated, spent a while creating this.

If $BTC accepts above the $83K range, the trend has significantly shifted from a TA perspective. Right now, technically speaking, the trend has not shifted yet because we haven’t reclaimed and flipped the $83K high on the weekly. I’m ~80% confident the bottom is already in, but if we’re looking strictly at technical confirmation, 83K is the level that needs to break and hold for a meaningful trend shift. This analysis is based on the HTF structure. So when we do reclaim 83K, be careful about blindly shorting the move higher. There’s a very real possibility that doing so gets you squeezed aggressively into the mid-90Ks. I expect some chop for now, but keep this in mind.

After being called “early.” After people constantly talked crap. After they decided to doubt me again. Who’s got the last laugh now? (Again). $BTC is now 30% away from your 50K target. I warned countless times, don’t try to perfect an entry in an imperfect market. But again, greed was the reason people fxcked up. They wanted to be too precise. My 2x long from 62.6K don’t look too stupid now does it? My notional spot average of $65,897 doesn’t seem too bad now either, does it?

Very important post... $BTC I have only ever wrote 1 article. This is the most important strategy I have deployed on sub-accounts seperate from my 2X swing long position. Utilizing leverage the same way insituions trade. We already dropped -54%. Realistically speaking, the most we can see is 65-68% based on the math. Meaning, if you long with 10x leverage, you have roughly 3 entries to nail the bottom. This is how you properly utilize leverage in conditions like this, especially after a major retracement & limited downside. Theoretically, what I am saying is that if you longed on 10x, you would catch the bottom in 3 tries from here, maybe less depending on how far we extend. Just do the math. 1st: 62.6 entry > 57.1 liquidation > 10x leverage > 10K margin > total PnL at 126K = 101.3K 2nd: 57.1 entry > 51.6 liquidation > 10x leverage > 10K margin > total PnL at 126K = 120,665 3rd: 51.6 entry > 46.1 liquidation > 10x leverage > 10K margin > total PnL at 126K = 144,186 The strategy is simple: utilizing leverage in a way similar to how institutions manage exposure. We’ve already experienced a 54% drawdown. Based on the math, a realistic worst-case scenario would put the decline around 65–68%. At 10x leverage, each position has roughly 9.5% downside from entry before liquidation with maintenance margin. In theory, that means you could potentially structure 3 separate 10x long entries from here, allowing each liquidation level to act as the trigger for the next entry. The PNL from the final entry would more than offset the losses from the first two if they’re invalidated. You can structure this across 4–5 entries, which is exactly what I’m doing alongside my 2X long, to give myself multiple shots at catching the bottom instead of trying to predict it perfectly. So, simply put: I’m fully allocated in spot, running a 2x swing long from $62.6K, and I’ve also deployed this strategy across sub-accounts.