@csroireal

Visit https://xitter.cf/t.co/xrXZT8wKXz to find and simulate the BEST cases, capsules, armory rewards and more to unbox!

Joined June 2024
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  • Followers1.3K
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With the Cologne Major over, will the stickers naturally get cheaper as they lose demand in the shop? Probably not. After analysing the data, the shop appears to work like one giant direct-buy capsule, with a 5x rarity ladder and a shared value pool between all stickers A🧵
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NEW Terminal Simulator V2 Just like the new case simulator, giving you a more fun and complete simulator! Are you ready for a new terminal from Valve? CSROI is!
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New CSROI Update - Simulator V2 - Terminal History - Terminal Buddy Graphs Trying something new with a video to show the features, hope you guys like it 😁
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How does ~$750 sound for the Steam Frame? Simply buy CS2 cases (or items) on a third party market, resell on steam and save! This applies for EVERYTHING you can buy on steam. A ~30% discount on everything on steam! Our CSROI Deals page shows great examples (cs2 cases are best)
titan.holo
@TitanHoloCSSep 14
Are you gonna buy a Steam Frame? 👀 €1k is crazy when I can get a Meta Quest 3 for €600 I know it's better, but 1k is a lot
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NEW CSROI UPDATE! 🥳 Among many other changes, Terminal Buddy got a massive improvement, a popover player! Get a live recommendation on your offer instantly, next to your offer!
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A "sticker sale" came, but not in the normal 75% off format Lower token costs targeted 75% off, but after 2.5k tokens it begins discounting even more, over 95% in some cases While the exact formula is unclear, its likely Valve is using a recent averaged price as baseline
mikewater9
@mikewater9Jul 29
Cologne ranked foils seem to be exactly 75% off in all cases; whereas holos vary a bit but average is 82% off
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A few days later update for the NEW armory collections Unbox ROI: Spy Tech - 61%➡️90% Arabesque - 53%➡️69% Fruits & Veggies - 39%➡️61% Auto Racing - 30%➡️53% Being aware of redemption cost ➡️ unbox value can pay off, many collections improving by 50%.
CSROI@csroirealJul 17
The NEW Armory Collections are finally tradable, with some abysmal returns... Unbox ROI: Spy Tech - 61% Arabesque - 53% Fruits & Veggies - 39% Auto Racing - 30% It seems that all the stars saved for this update produced way too many items for their demand...
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The NEW Armory Collections are finally tradable, with some abysmal returns... Unbox ROI: Spy Tech - 61% Arabesque - 53% Fruits & Veggies - 39% Auto Racing - 30% It seems that all the stars saved for this update produced way too many items for their demand...
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The new Cologne Highlight Charms and Champions stickers looked like they might dilute the sticker pool and act as a hidden sale. They don’t. Early data suggests Champion stickers and Highlight Charms have their own separate value pools, leaving the original sticker pool intact.
CSROI@csroirealJun 24
With the Cologne Major over, will the stickers naturally get cheaper as they lose demand in the shop? Probably not. After analysing the data, the shop appears to work like one giant direct-buy capsule, with a 5x rarity ladder and a shared value pool between all stickers A🧵
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The tiny movement around 125.5 also matches rounding. Expected variation from rounding 772 prices to whole tokens: 0.017 Observed across 51 uncapped snapshots: 0.019
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The recent dip in capsule equivalent value looked different, but Falcons Gold and NiKo Gold were both pinned at exactly 170,000 tokens. As NiKo left the cap, the measured pool recovered. That looks more like clipped value than a sale.
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Reports have come in stating some of the lowest sticker revenue yet for this major. Valve are definitely trying to maintain the same value as previous years stickers with this rarity pool pricing. I believe it's inevitable that we receive a sale. (Graph below from @HLTVorg )
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This matters because falling hype may not make the whole collection cheaper. Demand can leave one team, player or rarity and reappear elsewhere while the shop’s overall capsule-equivalent value stays near the same level.
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I weighted those prices like normal capsule outcomes: Paper x125 Foil x25 Holo x5 Gold x1 Across all 772 prices, the shop repeatedly totals around 3,778,554 weighted token points Divide by 193 designs and the combined rarity weight of 156: 3,778,554 / 193 / 156 = 125.5 tokens
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The strongest evidence that it is one shared pool: 24 May ➡️ 16 June Team value: +56.7% Autographs: -27.5% Whole shop: -0.02% Value moved between groups. It barely left the weighted pool.
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That 125.5 is not an average sticker price. It is the capsule-equivalent value of the whole shop. The value after weighting each rarity by how likely it would be received in a normal capsule. The EV if it was a capsule is 125.5 tokens.
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The shop has 193 designs in every rarity: 32 teams 160 autographs 1 IEM sticker Across Paper, Foil, Holo and Gold, that gives 772 live prices moving at once.
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Ever wondered why Knife/Glove tradeups need only 5 inputs rather than 10? It's not a random choice. Each rarity is 5x rarer than the last... except golds, 2/5x rarer. Instead tradeups require double. This is a genius deflationary measure that's helped discontinued collections.
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Mr ROI is feeling better now 😮‍💨 On a serious note, feel free to report any bugs or give feedback! This is a big project and sometimes issues occur with changes. The backend is being worked on currently for various improvements and long awaited features.
Gerhard
@GerhardderechteMay 26
Wait why do people not spamm open these Capsules if they are 380% ROI ? I think i just found a Money glitch
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Train 2025, Sport & Field, Sugarface 2 and Elemental are all sitting at near all time low ROI! They've been marked last chance for over 4 weeks making their removal imminent. How do you expect these items to perform short, medium, or long term? Graphic Design is at 180% ROI...
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