@cwarzel

Staff Writer, @TheAtlantic. I host Galaxy Brain, the first and only video podcast.

Joined February 2009
you're just going about your day and you now get to read stuff like "Trump says Sundar Pichai talked him out of renaming the Atlantic Ocean" and you just have to nod and move on with your day. “Oceans are different, sir.” lmao theverge.com/policy/1016751/…
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sundar is right bc as we all know oceans are battlefields
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Charlie Warzel retweeted
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arguably the tweet of the year
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i guess the near term future is just news like this that i don’t fully understand and must assume to be bad
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…or not that bad? who’s to say really
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i guess my feeling reading this assessment, which feels reasonable enough, is a substantial resentment over dragging everyone and everything into this future. whatever it is. “2027 is going to be fucking crazy. ” …thanks? i guess!?
Pay attention to the shock and vertigo the cyber world is going through right now. This is what it feels like when rising AI capabilities stop being hypothetical. Sooner or later, everyone will get their own version of this. The pattern goes like this. Models improve and a new capability appears at the frontier but doesn’t immediately become tangible. Insiders make predictions that get either ignored or dismissed as delusion, fear-mongering, or IPO hype. Proofs of concept slowly arrive but are written off as contrived and only appreciated within narrow research circles. Time moves on, everyday life remains familiar, and people speculate that the predictions were overblown. Then come the first sparks hinting that practical thresholds are being crossed. Suddenly, a phase change happens and some delicately maintained equilibrium shatters overnight. We’ve watched this play out a few times in the last year. Software engineering went first. Despite being the field watching AI most closely and adopting it most eagerly, software engineering was left shellshocked by the exploding utility of coding agents near the start of this year. Programming changed more in 2026 than it had in the last 15 years combined, and things are only continuing to accelerate. Nobody knows what it will mean to be a software engineer in a few years. Mathematics was next. Mathematicians went from laughing at the idea of LLMs being useful, to moving the goalposts (‘it’s just brute-forcing counterexamples’) when the Jacobian Conjecture fell, to being thrown into an existential spiral a few weeks ago when hundreds of frontier math results were quietly dropped overnight. The field is now steeped in debate about what it could possibly mean to be an effective mathematician as AI continues to improve. Now it’s cyber’s turn. Dramatic improvements in cyber capabilities were demonstrated during the Mythos preview in April, and massive white-hat operations like Daybreak and Glasswing were launched to give defenders a head start in hardening their systems. Months passed, and people began to suspect that the risks were overblown. Meanwhile, capabilities continued to diffuse into open source and non-frontier models. At some point, a critical mass was reached and we underwent a phase transition: critical vulnerabilities in the web’s core infrastructure and high-profile attacks on industry targets started landing at a drumbeat pace. All of this is after months of efforts to give defenders a head start, and before frontier offensive capabilities are even broadly available (note: it actually seems like many of the recent vulns are coming out of white hat programs). I suspect 3D modeling, animation, and video editing are entering this same interval between impressive demonstrations and widespread consequences. These fields will soon make contact with a rapidly changing reality. Take note of this feeling, the disorientation before the normalization treadmill kicks in and we all go back to pretending things are normal. Use it as your reference point for what the climb toward ASI will actually feel like. 2027 is going to be fucking insane.
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it’s been an honor using the computer with you all
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the sticky nature of X’s fyp recently is interesting. in just a few minutes i can get it to zero in on niche stuff to the point that its easily 90% of my feed until i start engaging w/ something else. & it really does feel like whatever you choose is the only topic in the world
I have tried and failed at this before, but I really am resolving in good faith to try to spend less time posting on here for things that aren't directly promoting longer work by me or others. I learn a lot on X, but it's a real mind poison too. slowboring.com/p/americans-n…
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this is ofc obvious (algos!) but i also think it really does trick people on here bc the volume of posts on something is always a signal (especially to media people) and it just feels increasingly artificial
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Charlie Warzel retweeted
"revealed preference" tends to be used as a thought-terminating cliche—there are lots of explanations for why people might be doing more or less of something other than that they are expressing their truest desires!
Americans have a "revealed preference" for doing less of basically everything except going online and I have serious doubts that this is making us happier. slowboring.com/p/americans-n…
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close enough
nathan fielder should get hbo to let him redo theranos
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Wrote about watching YCSE at a moment when the tech industry has really adopted a zealous, faith-based approach to the future and who’ll get us there. It’s about the cult of the builder, vc betting, and the problem with ‘never wrong, just early’ theatlantic.com/technology/2…
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This is obviously not to say that the whole industry is built around Theranos-like frauds, but that the structure and culture of it often makes it incredibly difficult to understand what’s real and what’s vaporware and who is operating in bad faith
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the posts about You Can See Everything from people in and around the tech industry are really just fantastic. just a really good companion to the film
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Leaving the Holmes doc at 150 on a perfect fall afternoon and I’m not sure I’ve ever felt less equipped to reenter reality
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Charlie Warzel retweeted
Humans need friction. So does the economy. Wrote about Musing Ourselves to Death & what a future where the internet transforms into a place for AI assistants to perfect commerce. Spoiler: We talked to some smart ppl & it would be chaotic! w/ @matteo_wong theatlantic.com/technology/2…
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im always saying this
The Roadster could genuinely be a lifesaver in situations like these.
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Humans need friction. So does the economy. Wrote about Musing Ourselves to Death & what a future where the internet transforms into a place for AI assistants to perfect commerce. Spoiler: We talked to some smart ppl & it would be chaotic! w/ @matteo_wong theatlantic.com/technology/2…
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you don’t want everyone pulling money out of a bank at the exact same time because a competitor has a marginally better interest rate, you don’t want your hospital and insurer to dynamically coordinate to adjust visit prices up on an hourly basis!
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The bigger thing is that retailers and the companies providing the agents (Meta, OpenAI, Instinct) are going to strike deals and create protocols. This means preferential treatment, negotiating limits to prices and discounts) these contracts will rarely be visible to consumers.
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