Construction worker turned academic turned central banker turned academic again. Chair, Economics Department @MiamiHerbert University of Miami

Miami, FL
Joined April 2013
Hey, I spent Sunday morning thinking about macroeconomic theory.🤓 MacroMania: A Journey in Macroeconomic Thinking andolfatto.blogspot.com/2021…
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David Andolfatto retweeted
AI productivity gains are showing up, but only in ~15% of jobs. The three heaviest AI adopters (information, professional services, finance) went from a 2.2% productivity trend to 5.0% since 2022. The rest of the economy: 0.9% to 1.4%.
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David Andolfatto retweeted
Alexander Hamilton fought anti-automation and pro-import arguments in the 1700s that hardly differ from the modern day.
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David Andolfatto retweeted
My thoughts of late have returned to this amazing scene by @WilliamShatner, made decades ago. As a young person, I found it tremendously inspiring. A code to live by. But it didn’t play out quite like we expected. The “fantastically advanced” life that we actually ended up encountering is right here, on Earth. All around us now. The key issue of our time is becoming this: Not everyone signed up for this mission, or the risk. And what we do about that, ultimately, is where the debate about AI will end up.
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What would a NGDP targeter do here @DavidBeckworth ?
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Fiscal situation now is similar to early 1980s, except debt-to-GDP ratio today is almost 4x higher.
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David Andolfatto retweeted
as a founder of @RefineDotInk, discussion around this new paper is v. interesting! The results confirm that AI reviews are incredible for detailed, actionable feedback to improve a manuscript. If AI is better, should AI replace human review? Quick view from the trenches 1/
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Nothing to see here, America. 🙈
US energy company execs have resigned in disgust as the Trump family is caught secretly expediting the funneling of $25 billion from a sanctioned Russian energy giant in exchange for allowing Russians to obtain a natural gas project in Alaska. According to investigations by The New York Times and Financial Times, Russia's Novatek allegedly concealed its financial involvement in the American project through a UAE-linked intermediary. Gentry Beach, a longtime Trump ally and close friend of Donald Trump Jr., signed an agreement with Novatek to pursue natural gas development in Alaska. Reuters documented the arrangement in February. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin discussed this cooperation on the Alaska energy project with Trump's representatives, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, during negotiations involving Russia and Ukraine. The controversy deepened when Polar Train LNG's CEO, Joel Riddle, raised concerns about concealed Russian financing and possible sanctions violations. He departed in September, followed by other senior executives. The Financial Times also described discussions about a potential arrangement under which Novatek would provide technology for the Alaska project in exchange for sanctions relief benefiting its Arctic LNG 2 development in Siberia. According to The New York Times, Riddle and two other departing executives warned the Trump administration about the Russian financing and urged officials to investigate. The White House maintains that the project was mentioned only briefly and that no detailed discussions took place. There is no established evidence that Kushner or Witkoff knew about the allegedly concealed financing. Polar Train LNG denies wrongdoing. The central question is how a sanctioned Russian energy company became involved in a major American energy venture while Putin was discussing potential economic cooperation with Trump's representatives and a longtime Trump family associate was pursuing a separate agreement with the same Russian company. Selling Alaska to the Russians or selling Ukraine to the Russians - to the Trump family it's all the same. ft.com/content/e9cfbfbb-e65a…
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David Andolfatto retweeted
Looks like we'll see very strong growth for Q3 GDP, data out on Thursday. Econvitals Composite tracking is for GDP growth of 3.2% in Q3. The composite tracker is a weighted average of several other measures--including Econvitals own estimate (2.4%). Private demand *much* stronger.
Econvitals' composite of current-quarter GDP trackers puts Q3 2026 growth at 3.2% at an annual rate, unchanged from yesterday.
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Zooming out a bit...
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And zooming out a lot, we see a truly remarkable adjustment...
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David Andolfatto retweeted
I'm thrilled to be launching Econvitals today. It's been the main way in which I have been tracking and understanding the economy over the last several months. And I decided I might as well share it with all of you--for free. Has a combo of website, email lists & social media.
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Happy 90th Birthday Charles Goodhart. It was my honor to present at your „birthday conference“ about AI and Asymmetric Understanding - organized by @bankofengland and @LSEEcon Goodhart‘s Law is tremendous achievement in economics but equally important in Computer Science
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David Andolfatto retweeted
What amazes me is the attitude of so many of the centibillionaires. A 5% tax will not make any difference to the way they live. Their spending may be extravagant, but it is still much less than their (correctly measured) income. They know that, as gifted as some of them indeed are, they have benefited from extreme luck (and the help of the state, and, to speak like an economist, monopoly rents). They know that their effective tax rate is low, relative to what many others pay. They know that extreme inequality is extremely unpopular, and can lead to political unrest, backlash, or worse. They must admit that, morally, it is hard to argue for a society in which some become obscenely wealthy, while so many are poor and see their income stagnate. They typically have not indicated that they are building their wealth to eventually make the world a better place. But they are still willing to fight the tax, spending hundreds of millions in California to avoid paying the tax. Why? They simply think what is theirs is theirs, end of story. They believe in the slippery slope, and if they do not take a stand on this levy, the government will come back for more. They hate the state and the notion that their money will be misused? Or?
This is huge. A just-released SEC filing makes an extraordinary revelation: Mark Zuckerberg is getting ready to pay California’s 5% billionaire wealth tax and has signed an agreement to remain in California for 8 years. We are witnessing a global turning point unfold before our eyes. 🧵
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David Andolfatto retweeted
This is important
Zelensky said he agrees to stop the war along the current front line
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Nothing to see here.
Billions of dollars’ worth of contracts predicting oil would fall and the S&P 500 would rise were placed about 15 minutes before Trump announced a U-turn on Iran in a post on Truth Social. CFTC staff began to investigate-- then were told to lay off. bloomberg.com/news/features/…
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CPI inflation Sep 2026 3.7% year-over-year 8.1% month-over-month (annualized)
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This is an example of why I am such a fan of the overlapping generations model in which knowledge transmits imperfectly across generations.
50 years of macroeconomics in a nutshell: Lucas: “Your Keynesian models are full of ad hoc assumptions. We need proper microfoundations!” SMD: “Well, individual rationality doesn't guarantee nice aggregate behavior.” New Classical macroeconomists: “Aggregation is a problem? Let's just model the entire economy as ONE representative agent. Problem solved.” New Keynesians: “Cool. Now let's throw in some ad hoc assumptions to make it work.” And that's how ad hoc assumptions became microfoundations.
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