Daniel Hynes

The question I'm asking in every call with advisors is "when will the $#%@ hit the fan?" for that is when the gap between the physical and financial oil markets collapses. The answer comes down to physical shortages. Starting now in Asia, soon in Europe, and the "battle for the barrel" will too draw down US oil/product inventories lifting price (without an export ban). Every generalist seems to think oil falls back to "normal" when SofH opens...but what they are missing is that it will take years to refill depleted SPR and already-low product inventories (ie. higher floor price going forward). For many of us, the apathy/delusion in the broader market is truly spectacular, and is in my opinion offering a tremendous opportunity with several oil producers trading at 15%+ free cashflow yields at our $80WTI 2027 base case. Reality should begin to hit in the coming weeks.

If you were to create list of people in the UK who really understand metal supply and demand, have built mines, know commodity economics, large scale industrial investment, project feasibility, permitting, development and finance: then it would not be a long list, but my name would be on it. For all of the people who know that electricity is the future and that hydrocarbons are dying, that we don't need diesel, or gas, or liquid fuels: Tell me where the copper is coming from. Now do silver, tin, lithium and batteries. For those of you say the future is nuclear, tell me where the uranium is coming from. Tell me what price these would be at, and when it could be delivered. Tell me how you are going to build grid resilience and more importantly grid inertia from renewables. Tell me what your plan is for windless, cloudy days in the middle of winter. Tell me what you will do to decommission and replace wind and solar every 10 to 20 years - and where you will dump all those unrecylcable turbine blades. For every GW of renewables we have to build a GW of conventional back-up, or rely on the kindness of foreigners. There is no magic metal shop. There is no new physics that makes a 100% renewables grid work. The greatest threat to humanity is not global warming, it is energy poverty.