Blackvard retweeted
I read every bull and bear take on $IREN since yesterday's earnings. Here's what's actually true.
The bulls are right that this isn't a typical neocloud deal.
NVIDIA chose IREN to host their own internal AI research. That's not a marketing partnership - it's $NVDA paying a third party to do work they used to do on DGX Cloud themselves.
The contract is priced at $11.3M/MW vs the $9.7M/MW Microsoft deal - a 16% premium for air-cooled Blackwell. That's real.
The warrants only vest as NVIDIA delivers GPUs, fully vesting at 600k units. So this isn't dilution upfront.
This is "you don't get equity unless you actually help us scale." That's a smarter structure than anyone's giving IREN credit for.
But the bears aren't wrong about the risks.
NVIDIA didn't put cash in. $NBIS got $2B in real money. $CRWV got a $3B equity buy. IREN got a contingent option. The market repriced this overnight from $72 to $60 because that distinction matters.
Cash dropped from $3.26B to $2.21B in one quarter. They burned through $1B in three months. The $2.6B "fortress balance sheet" everyone keeps citing? At current capex pace, that's roughly two quarters of runway before the next raise.
The CFO got asked directly how they'd fund the NVIDIA buildout. The answer was "various ways in the debt capital markets... we'll evaluate all initiatives." That's not a plan. That's vibes.
AI Cloud revenue came in at $33.6M when bulls were modeling $70-80M. The bull defense that GPUs were being delivered late and BTC rigs were getting decommissioned is actually true. But it's also the third quarter in a row where execution has been "mostly on track but slightly behind."
So where does that leave us?
This is a company with the best AI infrastructure asset base outside the hyperscalers, the explicit blessing of NVIDIA, and a balance sheet that's not as bulletproof as Twitter wants it to be.
The $3.4B contract is real. The 5GW power pipeline is real. The Spain acquisition is a genuine surprise win. But execution risk through 2026 is also real, and dilution is coming.
If IREN executes - $200 isn't crazy.
If they slip another quarter - $40 isn't crazy either.
The signal in $60 isn't fear. It's the market pricing in both outcomes simultaneously.
Watch H1 Microsoft handoff in Q3. Watch the next financing announcement. Those two things tell you which path we're on.
Blackvard retweeted
Some second-order thoughts about $MSFT & OpenAI's amended partnership:
This is probably a strong signal for the commoditization of even the frontier AI models.
It fits the pattern:
- The more commodity the product, the more important distribution channels become.
- The more commodity the product, the less important exclusivity is for distributors.
$MSFT clearly feels that giving up on its exclusivity is better than paying OpenAI's revenue share. If they thought OpenAI was irreplaceable, they wouldn't do this.
OpenAI, on the other hand, clearly recognizes that it doesn't have enough allure to attract everybody to Azure just to access their models through the cloud. In 2023, this was different. OpenAI looked good enough to attract workloads to Azure.
So, this is probably an early signal as to the commoditization of even the cutting-edge models.
As capabilities become good enough and model development flatlines, commoditization will accelerate.
This doesn't necessarily bode ill for broader demand, but it definitely raises questions about the sustainability of AI lab valuations.
The next phase of the Microsoft-OpenAI partnership msft.it/6015vGRyX
Blackvard retweeted
Brutal day data-center stocks $IREN $NBIS $CIFR all being sold alongside chips because they sit in the same trade:
AI capex,
power demand,
and hardware spending.
If investors think the macro backdrop is worsening or that AI returns will take longer to show up, they tend to cut both the “picks and shovels” names and the hyperscaler-adjacent infrastructure names together. Like it or not, that's the reality.
There is no sudden collapse in AI fundamentals or demand.
If oil and yields stabilize, these stocks can rebound fast, but if inflation worries keep rising, the sector will continue to stay under pressure.
Blackvard retweeted
First to adopt #AgenticAI? Cute. First to secure it? That’s how you win. 🔐 Here’s how:
Blackvard retweeted
Elon Musk just identified the next crisis in AI. It’s not a shortage. It’s an unusable surplus.
Musk: “By the end of this year, chip production will outpace the ability to turn chips on.”
For three years the world was starved for silicon. Every lab, every government, every company racing to secure the chips that determine who wins the AI era.
That bottleneck is ending. A new one is replacing it.
Musk: “The chips are going to be piling up and not be able to be turned on.”
Billions of dollars of the most advanced AI hardware ever built. Sitting dark. Not because the chips don’t work.
Because there isn’t enough electricity to run them.
You can’t print a power plant the way you print a chip.
The fabrication plants scaled. The grid didn’t. And now the most valuable hardware in history is about to hit a wall that no amount of capital can instantly solve.
Compute is about to become abundant. Electricity is about to become the most valuable commodity on earth.
Three years obsessing over silicon yields. Physics doesn’t care about your chip architecture if your data center can’t pull enough megawatts.
The war isn’t about who can manufacture the most silicon anymore.
It’s about who has the raw power to plug it in.
Whoever solves energy first doesn’t just win. They own the infrastructure everyone else needs to compete.
The losers stack useless chips in warehouses waiting for power that never arrives.
We built a trillion dollar engine and forgot the fuel.
That’s the AI race right now.
Blackvard retweeted
Tiger Brokers $TIGR Q3:
▪️ Revenue +73%
▪️ Net Profit +180%
▪️ Clients Assets +49%
Blackvard retweeted
$ROOT Q3 EARNINGS
Revenue +27% YoY ✅
Net income -$5.4M 🟡 due to $17M warrant expense with Carvana & expected
Gross loss ratio 59% - Fantastic, best in class ✅✅
Partnership channel doubled YoY ✅
Strong surplus still ✅
Flagged near term investments in marketing could affect profits in short term but unlock long term operating leverage - again, this was expected 🟡
Overall a good quarter on first impressions ✅
Blackvard retweeted
Great Q3 report from Wallix $ALLIX, MRR up 27.5% y/y, Q3 Sales +22% y/y. SaaS outstanding dynamic with +43% y/y growth. Sharp improvement in earnings in H2 2025 and positive result for FY2025 confirmed. Recurring business now 77% share. Below 3x EV/Sales 2026 again.
Blackvard retweeted
Excited to share that PayPal and Venmo’s CMO, Geoff Seeley, is joining @Lemonade_Inc’s board.
Blackvard retweeted
Today an interesting milestone for Wallix $ALLIX stock. The market capitalization has surpassed $201 million at €25.6. It seems to me that beyond being just a symbolic level, this could matter a lot in the future, because I found two cybersecurity ETFs myself that can add shares of a cybersecurity company once it crosses the $200 million marketcap threshold. This is potential big source of assets/inflows (and returns for small companies) in the modern investing era:
1. Global X Cybersecurity ETF $BUG, assets $1.1 billion @GlobalXETFs
2. L&G Cyber Security UCITS ETF $ISPY, assets €2.8 billion (ironically it is a European ETF with largest position in CyberArk $CYBR, major competitor of Wallix - see the picture!) @landg_uk
This is quite a unique situation, since (as everyone knows well here…) there aren’t many publicly listed cybersecurity companies in France and Europe vs US. America is always core in these cybersecurity and software ETFs (again see picture). I am not passive investing specialist and it is hard to track whether these or other thematic ETFs I do not know will buy/add Wallix shares, considering 80% free float and entry into positive EBIT territory. I study this story, based on the example of another French company, Exail $EXA, which rose several hundred percent supported by ETFs -> as a new weight for defense ETFs. That was well flagged by some experienced investors.
If anyone has a clue how that works and when inclusion could happen in the 2 cybsec ETFs I found, after stock rises above $200m marketcap threshold, please leave a comment!
ALT Data about L&G Cyber Security ETF Portfolio
Blackvard retweeted
Montega Analysts just upgraded Ceotronics $CEK stock recommendation from hold with €12 to buy with €15 thanks to outstanding FY24/25 results.
I believe this €15 TP is very conservative valuation. Why? Check their DCF model in the picture. The FCF in the forecasted period is really between €2m and €9m there (€8,6 p.a. for terminal value). While just last year Ceotronics did €12.7m. So to justify €15 DCF target Ceotronics business needs to shrink a lot in next years. That is extremely conservative and like opposite to the perspective presented in the text. I generally agree with the major drivers mentioned:
- Bundeswehr SmG Contract – first large-scale delivery of CT-MultiPTT units to the German armed forces set a new performance benchmark and proved Ceotronics reliability and execution on major defense programs.
- Strong international momentum – Sales grew +97.5% y/y in Germany and +65.3% y/y across Europe, signaling broader demand beyond the domestic market - I think analysts clearly underestimate now potential from International EU markets...
- Follow-on military orders are mentioned there a bit, a further €13.5 m order from a European customer is planned for 2026 delivery, underpinning multi-year growth visibility. This is very nice point, the €13.5m was placed in April 2025... so probably next one will be placed soon too.
- Conservative guidance vs. analyst view. Ceotronics projects FY25/26 revenue of €56 m and net profit of €5.3 m, while Montega research forecasts €59.7 m revenue and €5.9 m profit, expecting another potential guidance beat, so that is good, but still very conservative I believe.
- Operating leverage, mentioned headcount growth (+4.7 %) despite soaring sales drove record EBIT margins, highlighting scalable production with low in-house manufacturing depth. Very good point that shows earnings could multiply again in next years with next contracts.
- Cash flow "turnaround". Free cash flow improved to €12.7m (from –€13.6 m prior year), reducing net debt to €2.3 m and strengthening liquidity for future projects...I think this is the most important Information from full FY report that is very different from Analyst long term assumptions.
- Political delays influence 3rd Bundeswehr batch – orders fell 15% y/y to €60.1 m because approval for the third SmG lot was postponed by German political changes - decision now expected late 2025, so countdown started!. That is the major short term trigger in my view. I do not see a risk here more upside probably, not a matter of yes or no, but how big and when? The sooner, the bigger then the larger short term upside in Q4 2025 we have.
ALT Very conservative Ceotronics DCF model table from Montega
Blackvard retweeted
Sehr gut! 💥💣 Ceotronics $CEK just published their last year 2024/25 now (ends in May).
1. Record revenue = €55.8m +88% y/y. This was known due to guidance increase.
2. Profit clearly massive = EBIT €7.8m +210% y/y, net profit €4.7m +279% y/y. This is better, as analyst expected approx. €7m EBIT!
3. Strong balance sheet = equity up 42% to €28.4m, equity ratio improved to 66.5%. Remember the comments about weak BS when they started SmG contract with Rheinmetall $RHM? That is not relevant anymore.
4. Productivity gains and massive operating leverage = Revenue/employee +80% y/y to €423k, it is type of leverage like in a software company!
5. Order backlog = very high at €60.1m –15%, despite delays in 🇧🇪Bundeswehr and police orders, which are expected to flow soon. This is a guidance of very big trigger / next call-off soon??? Keep in mind this backlog means only orders in hand, it is not the framework contract values sum. That is probably €150-250m now - own estimate.
6. Outlook = FY 2025/26 revenue stable at approx. €56m, net income €5.3m. Larger growth expected from FY 2026/27 due to higher EU and German security spending... Keep in mind Ceotronics tends to beat heavily and then increase guidance few times. "Underpromise & deliver" style there.
7. Dividends for income hungry German investor base = €0.2 per share proposed. Some sweetener due to much stronger balance sheet than expected.
8. Very confident profit outlook and CEO statements.
Why $CEK stock stays at approx. €90 marketcap or oven lower (sub €12) for last few months? Please challenge!
ALT Ceotronics $CEK stock price between 11 Eur and 15 Eur in the last 4 months.
Blackvard retweeted
I've initiated a small position in $LMND - a few thoughts before a deeper dive into this interesting case:
$LMND is building a fully digital, AI-native insurance company with growing scale and improving unit economics.
After several years of heavy investment, the business is now showing accelerating growth and improving profitability. The long-term thesis rests on the company’s ability to translate rapid top-line expansion into durable profitability by leveraging automation and scale (flat OPEX structure), while expanding across products (home, auto, pet) and geographies.
Blackvard retweeted
Är det ngn som har tittat närmare på Lyten batteries, som köpt Northvolt? Innan vi slänger mer skatte och pensionspengar…
Ser det inte märkligt ut med märkliga LinkedIn profiler, okända namn, inga kända investerare
Ngn journalist som vill gräva?
Hoppas jag har fel så klart!
Blackvard retweeted
Very strong Q2 report from Serviceware $SJJ today. See 4 highlights below:
1. SaaS growth of +30.5% YoY in H1 2025
2. Operating profit in the black (we have breakeven!)
3. Cash balance grew to €34.7m (+1m y/y and no debt)
4. "Serviceware is experiencing very high demand for its AI-native ESM Platform. In the first six months, numerous new customers decided to implement the platform. A well-known German bank will use the ESM Platform for knowledge management. REHAU Industries, a leading provider of polymer-based solutions, as well as companies from sectors such as industry, mechanical engineering, and education will also use the Serviceware Platform and its AI-native functionalities."
These factors are driving $SJJ to grow SaaS quickly in the AI driven world and they have excess cash -> will probably initiate a large buyback (see AGM). I recommend taking a look at this case, as it looks even better after these results, yet surprisingly their share price is only up +0.8% today. For me, this is a big positive surprise mix, so I don’t understand the Mr. Matket reaction. Yes, and given the 1.2x EV/Sales valuation now, while people run after many >10x SaaS with worse economics.
If anyone has an idea or thoughts, happy to discuss!
Blackvard retweeted
Serviceware $SJJ H1 2025 out today
Solid 10% sales growth, but it hides the >40% SaaS growth in declining service and license sales
EBIT is positive, and has accumulated by 1 MEUR to over 34 MEUR
When service and license are done with, this should scale like a proper software
Blackvard retweeted
WALLIX
La France, deuxième pays le plus touché par les fuites de données
usine-digitale.fr/article/la…
Blackvard retweeted
Serviceware major deal #7 YTD and more
serviceware-se.com/en/ir-new…
AI platform SaaS order intake 7digits just in Apr-Jun 25
$SJJ reporting Q2 July 29th
Solid momentum. Already more deals vs FY24
Orderbook Q1 25 was 102 MEUR (+26% qoq)
Why havent they increased sales guidance?