dasher retweeted
Targets put a ceiling on the exact thing you came here for. You showed up to this market because it produces enormous trends. And then your first instinct is to cap your upside at some arbitrary level you decided on before the move even started.
You've kept all the chaos, but you've removed the payoff that justifies enduring all of it. The goal is staying in the trade as long as the trend is intact. Targets are fundamentally flawed when applied to a strategy whose edge depends on open-ended winners.
With targets, you've chosen a game defined by asymmetry and then eliminated the asymmetry.
been on an island the last month doing exactly this. also did yoga for the first time (as an adult) yesterday. good advice here
If you're not calm right now in this current market, then one of the most important things is working on your market psychology. Absolutely f*cking toasted later in the cycle if you can't handle this. Learned my lesson early on in my journey, being cocky and thought I knew everything. Probably *the* thing that will decide if you keep your money or not whenever this next cycle ends.
Most will probably ignore this advice and think they can do this without working on their mental strength, because it's not a sexy thing to do.
Sending my regards.
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good tweet
𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐯𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐥 𝐠𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐛𝐮𝐥𝐥 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭
here is a set of rules i think are good guidance to navigate the upcoming bull market.
𝐝𝐨 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐚𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐠𝐞 𝐝𝐨𝐰𝐧
if a trade goes against you do not buy more on the way down. this is a recipe to get rekt (in aggressive narrative trading at least, might be different in building a longterm btc position). the market is showing you that your thesis or your timing is wrong, do not fight the market. do not fall into the illusion to think you are right and everybody else is wrong, because most of the time you are not. or in the words of Paul Tudor Jones: "losers average losers".
𝐚𝐥𝐰𝐚𝐲𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐜𝐮𝐬 𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐧𝐞𝐱𝐭 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐭
always keep your eyes forward and think about the next shot. do not entertain thoughts of "what if" and indulge in revisionist history thinking ala "if i had held y longer i would be up x amount of money". what is done is done, focus on the next shot. the same goes if you had hit a winner and are up fat. many people stay still and admire their shot instead of focussing of what other shots they might miss while doing this. best shooters have the worst memory.
𝐝𝐨 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐨𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐲𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐟 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐩𝐞𝐨𝐩𝐥𝐞 𝐰𝐡𝐨 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐬𝐭𝐮𝐜𝐤 𝐢𝐧 𝐨𝐧𝐞'𝐬 𝐰𝐚𝐲
distance yourself from people who get defensive and butthurt when their trades are challenged or a contrary opinion about their investment is voiced. a good operator tries to see things from all angles and is always open to steelman a bear case. especially dangerous are groupchats where bears get ridiculed and discouraged to voice their opinion, the result of this is an echo bubble. leave these groups.
𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐦𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐂𝐓
CT at its core has a very distorted view of money. whenever market puts a first green candle in people are freaking out and fall into some kind of psychosis about money and how much they gonna make. you can see it already starting with people tweeting about being in "7-figure hell'. unfollow / block these accounts, they will lead to a distorted view of money for yourself and open up the door for all kinds of bias traps. the same goes for all the people who always hindsight post how they are in all the runners and are up huge but forgot to voice their opinion before the asset went +200%. there is a huge amount of larps and liars on CT, and the result for many new entrants is that they get trapped in some kind of fata morgana where it seems everybody but themselves is winning huge. the results is often excessive risk taking and total loss of NW as a consequence.
𝐤𝐞𝐞𝐩 𝐚 𝐬𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐝 𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐤 𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐠𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐭 𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐬
stay in your lane and stick to your protocol, no matter what others are doing or how much somebody else is winning. there will always be somebody who wins extreme amounts of money by reckless betting. but thats survivorship bias at work here, because for everybody like this that you see are 10 dead bodies who lost it all. your NW will always regress to the level of your process (read that again, this is a very important concept to understand). profits made by excessive risk taking will be lost by excessive risk taking. live by the sword, die by the sword.
𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐪𝐮𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐨𝐟 𝐚 𝐝𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐦𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐛𝐲 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐢𝐦𝐦𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞
good decisions can have bad outcomes and still be good decisions, and vice versa. due to the influence of luck, chance and variance the quality of a decision cannot be judged by its immediate outcome. therefore do not categorize decisions by how much money they made or lost. think deeper, simulate outcomes for more than one possible outcome. the goal is to constantly make good decisions.
there is a bit more nuance to all of these, but you will figure it out if you want to. these are my basics. goodluck, see you in the order books.11320:58
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dasher retweeted
he just flipped my fomo balance in one trade
so fucking happy Paco is the best dude ever
follow @Paco420_ closely this cycle bros
.@Paco420_ is the first real friend I made on ct and he’s become one of my best friends and he’ll be at my wedding in a few weeks
friendship based on shared ideas + aesthetics is something special and ct (especially meme/art heavy ct) is a unique place to get that
just obviously be super careful with who you make friends with from here irl
dasher retweeted
the psychology of the "big" trade
if youve been in crypto for a while, you dream of making life changing money. but to get there, you need to suddenly find yourself in a position that could potentially change your life. how you play, will dictate the next chapters of it, so move well.
ive been fortunate to be in this position a few times over the last years:
in wif
in bome
in trump
in bitcoin puppets
in pups
in fwog
in a eth long
etc.
we've been blessed time and time again
now just because we were in these trades, being up 6 to 7 figures didnt mean we executed how we wanted. actually there were a few mistakes in a couple of them that i wish i could take back. i roundtripped everything and on a few somehow lost money, because i lost my emotional control.
being in one of these things is crazy...
usually it happens because you are in much earlier before it becomes consensus, before everyone agrees. you might feel like you alone, delusional. it's a weird place, but you have to be convicted and confident. that's a post for another day.
there have 2 main curses that i have seen when being in a "big" trade.
the first, is holding too long. you become so bag biased that you continue to hold. that delusion can actually help you though, especially through the first few days/weeks. but it can hurt you and you can leave so much money on the table. you can burn time, emotions, energy.
the second, is being "too early" and selling off too much of your perfect position just because the dollar amount is big. you got in so early, you are rewarded for being so right, but you're shocked into losing your ability to execute.
in this moment, you have to come back to center, to neutral. calm the mind. detract from YOUR trade. at this point, you are a surfer of the ocean, watch the waves.
after taking initials and some profit ideally, you are now in a "safer" trade. you can hold a little bit comfier. at this point, you have to genuinely ask yourself to put targets. these can be dates, market caps, catalysts. when these happen, you NEED to stick to your systems and take profits.
sometimes, when you do this, you realize that there is still a 100x on the table. other times, you understand you should probably sell everything.
again it comes back to yin and yang, walking the tight rope and balancing all sides. talk to friends you respect. a lot of people will message you and recommend a certain thing. ONLY listen to your people. but the people giving advice, it comes from a place of good wishes. but you should ignore most.
if youve been in this space for a while, your time will come. but never really hunt for them, just focus on constantly winning. a lot of this, will come from muscle memory, knowing how to move. the first time itll be crazy... youll feel things youve never felt before. you might make mistakes! and thats okay, give yourself grace and always stay calm. and feel free to dm me when you find yourself in this situation and need another pov.
just thinking out loud, it's always fun to journal in the midst of being in something crazy.
when youre in it, execute. plan, be disciplined. execute. win.
most importantly, be GRATEFUL you have options now. move always with thankfulness and appreciation for the experience.
dasher retweeted
You could move to New York City.
Walk out your door at 2am for a bacon egg and cheese and not think twice about it. Get on a subway that takes you from a mosque to a synagogue to a cathedral to a noodle shop that's been slinging the same bowl since 1987, all in twelve blocks. Watch strangers from four different continents argue about a parking spot in a language that is somehow entirely made of hand gestures.
Sit in a park designed 170 years ago by geniuses who wanted you, specifically, to have somewhere green to sit. Catch a Tuesday night set from a musician who's about to be enormous, in a room that fits eighty people. Walk past a building where somebody invented something, or wrote something, or changed something, roughly every four minutes, whether you notice or not.
Realize your commute is also a people-watching seminar, a smell-based cultural exchange program, and free comedy.
Order the good pizza at 1am standing up, off a paper plate, next to a guy in a tux and a guy who clearly just got off a double shift, both getting the same slice with the same reverence.
Pay too much for too little space and get, in exchange, eleven million other people's worth of energy pointed directly at your life every single day.
Move to Iowa. Get the four bedrooms, the garage, the yard. Never again have a 3am conversation with a stranger that changes how you think about something. Never walk into a museum on a random Wednesday because it's just there. Never get that specific electric feeling of being one tiny gear in the greatest machine humans have ever built.
But hey. At least parking's easy.
You could move to New York City.
Rent an 852-square-foot apartment for $5,503 a month.
Blow $500 on three “first dates” a week and somehow remain single for six years.
Finally meet someone you like, then discover they’re “not really looking for anything serious right now.”
Get a master’s degree so you can qualify for an internship.
Apply to 147 jobs, get 93 automated rejections, and finally find an “entry-level” position requiring five years of experience.
Eventually land a six-figure job and still need a roommate to make rent.
Pay federal income tax, New York State income tax, AND New York City income tax because apparently living there is a three-level subscription.
Learn that a “quiet neighborhood” means the sirens only come by every 20 minutes.
Pay $27 every day for a sandwich (no sides) because the place has exposed brick and a handwritten menu.
Take the subway to work every morning and develop the useful skill of pretending not to notice absolutely anything happening around you.
Spend 45 minutes traveling three miles.
Carry your groceries home six blocks because parking near your apartment is more of a philosophical concept than an actual possibility.
Have “owning a washer and dryer” become one of your primary measures of generational wealth.
Walk past a mountain of trash bags on your way to a restaurant with a Michelin star.
Tell your friends back home you don’t need a car while spending $46 on an Uber because the subway is delayed again.
Go to Central Park when you want to remember what trees look like.
Spend your twenties telling everyone you could NEVER live anywhere else.
Then one day you visit your cousin in Iowa.
He has a house with four bedrooms, a garage, a yard, two cars, four kids, and somehow pays less than you do for the apartment where your refrigerator touches your couch.
But hey.
The NYC bagels are incredible.
dasher retweeted
It’s actually unbelievable how similar the start of every cycle is to the start of every other cycle
dasher retweeted
my final message goodbye
i believe you have the majority of 2026-2027 where there will be favourable conditions to trade onchain and still make life-changing money.
i feel most traders including ogs on here will sell bitcoin too early, and are not optimistic enough on it. a few months ago, right before the AI meta started i posted about the importance of screentime.
i emphasize on it for a reason, ask the greatest onchain traders how they achieved their breakthrough and they'll tell you being chronically online played the biggest part.
all it takes is one, one good month, one good week, one good day, one good hour, one good click, one good split second decision.
you CAN do it alone, but only if you're willing to sacrifice basically everything to sleuth coins onchain for 10s of hours a day weeks on end, sometimes to the point where you lose sense of time.
aim to build intuition instead of having to borrow conviction from callers, this can only be achieved by lots of screentime.
money creates money, more money creates even more money.
view money as a tool to take advantage of your ability to read narratives. don't be scared to risk money on something with potential. risk often, risk every single time your gut tells you to.
abolish all emotional connection to your trades and money, view it as a game you must win, as a code you must crack.
once it starts cracking (and with enough effort it, always does) use the pixelated gains to better your life and build something irl.
dont just click for the sake of clicking, think, think a lot, think of what others after you will think. but keep your thesis simple, and have the patience to let it play out properly. either be fully wrong, or be fully right. no mediocrity, nothing in between.
i performed very well onchain for '25, and i was lucky enough to see multiple friends hit their lifelong financial goals this year, i find immense joy seeing traders on here do well that began by reading my threads. eternally grateful to have helped anyone find direction or achieve the correct mindset.
trust yourself, learn to bet on yourself, torture yourself with absolute discipline, only then will you find success onchain.
you have my prayers for the year ahead soldiers.
inshallah.