Elon just threw the AI bulls a bone..
He said $SPCX could end 2027 with $500B to $1T in ARR
This would be the first company to earn $1T in annual revenue
$SPY +0.3% after hours
$SPCX
ELON:
- WE COULD HAVE 20GW OF SI CAPACITY ONLINE BY NEXT YEAR, SMALL CHANCE BUT IT IS POSSIBLE
- I WOULD BE SURPRISED IF WE BROUGHT ON LESS THAN 13GW OF COMPUTE BY THE END OF NEXT YEAR
If Elon brings 20GW online next year...
Dave retweeted
$NBIS has been counted out three times in just under two years
Jan'25 | DeepSeek launches
• "AI compute demand is dead"
• $NBIS -40% in a week
• Logic: if a Chinese lab can match top models with less compute, then GPU demand (and companies like Nebius that exist to supply that compute) is dead.
• $NBIS 5X since
Aug'25 | GPT5 dissappoints | Altman "bubble"
• "Hype is dead"
• Altman himself says people are "overexcited"
• Logic: GPT5 was underwhelming and Altman compared it to dot com bubble and said investors will get "very burnt"
• $NBIS 2.4X since
Oct'25 | Circular financing fears
• "AI is paying for its own revenue"
• $NBIS -36% in Nov'25
• Logic: NVDA heavily invests into their own customers, essentially recycling AI funds among a handful of players.
• $NBIS 2X since
$NBIS is now down 33% in ten days due to:
• $AVGO CEO comments getting framed around AI investors being gamblers
• OpenAI revenue drop rumors
• Inflation running hot
None of this has to do with $NBIS specifically, or their growing numbers.
I'm gonna go out on a limb here and assume it'll recover.
“I’ve been saying this for months”
I haven’t seen one bearish $NBIS post til last week.
These people are likely pulling up posts from the June-July pullback.
Proving you only have these takes when there’s blood in the streets.
Be bearish when the stock is running.
Be bullish when the stock is bleeding.
Don’t be on the exact side the market is telling you to be on.
Reactive.
Weak.
$NBIS has been counted out three times in just under two years
Jan'25 | DeepSeek launches
• "AI compute demand is dead"
• $NBIS -40% in a week
• Logic: if a Chinese lab can match top models with less compute, then GPU demand (and companies like Nebius that exist to supply that compute) is dead.
• $NBIS 5X since
Aug'25 | GPT5 dissappoints | Altman "bubble"
• "Hype is dead"
• Altman himself says people are "overexcited"
• Logic: GPT5 was underwhelming and Altman compared it to dot com bubble and said investors will get "very burnt"
• $NBIS 2.4X since
Oct'25 | Circular financing fears
• "AI is paying for its own revenue"
• $NBIS -36% in Nov'25
• Logic: NVDA heavily invests into their own customers, essentially recycling AI funds among a handful of players.
• $NBIS 2X since
$NBIS is now down 33% in ten days due to:
• $AVGO CEO comments getting framed around AI investors being gamblers
• OpenAI revenue drop rumors
• Inflation running hot
None of this has to do with $NBIS specifically, or their growing numbers.
I'm gonna go out on a limb here and assume it'll recover.
$NBIS | Best thing I've seen on X today
Almost a year later, we’re back at that point.
Using a VERY conservative estimate for the value of the non-core business units, $NBIS' core business is effectively trading at ~1-2x YE2027 ARR at today’s market cap.
It’s been a long time since the stock was this cheap.
