Editor in chief at National Journal. Soccer player, cocktail nerd, occasional Mick Jagger impersonator. Hoya. CT native. RTs do not = endorsements.
Washington, D.C.
Joined August 2009
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Jeff Dufour retweeted
This Forbes investigation is a must-read.
Donald Trump pulled in roughly $1.4 billion from crypto in 2025, plus more than $200 million from real estate, and faced a projected tax bill north of $500 million. So his company donated the "development rights" to his Jupiter, Florida golf course to a land trust, argued the course was a natural habitat worth protecting, and kept right on running the club. Forbes estimates the write-off could land around $825 million.
He has done this at least five times since 2005. New York's attorney general alleged two of those appraisals were inflated. In Doral, he claimed a deduction of up to $323 million, more than double what he paid for the entire resort.
A month after the Jupiter deal, he sued the IRS. The settlement his own Justice Department signed bars claims against him over matters that "could be pending," language that appears broad enough to cover this year's taxes. A federal judge found the case was brought to manipulate the judicial process. And the man now running the IRS, who took the job as this deal was being assembled, has a home backing onto those same Jupiter fairways.
This is absolutely ridiculous. Nobody should be able to use the presidency to write his own tax bill.
forbes.com/sites/danalexande…
It’s bad form for two TV hosts to put money in the pocket of a president they cover. Although there’s never been a POTUS who operated an events business while in office either.
Sean Hannity Has Wedding Rehearsal Dinner at Mar-a-Lago: ‘I Paid Fair Market Value’ mediaite.com/media/tv/sean-h…
Those toss-up and Lean D columns are now awfully red
New @CookPolitical: 19 more House ratings move in Dems' direction, including six seats from Toss Up to Lean D. Full analysis by @ercovey: cookpolitical.com/analysis/h…
“I was a person in the White House.” Fact check: true.
Jeff Dufour retweeted
Folks, this morning Hotline published our interactive and searchable databases of every congressional candidate fundraising report
1 and 7 are most relevant at the moment
Seven widespread misunderstandings about politics.
1. The Democratic Party’s elected officials, staffers, and donors are on average very progressive compared not only to the median voter but to most of the rank and file people who vote for Democrats.
2. The public’s persistently angry mood is not a demand for large policy changes, almost all changes generate backlash and the biggest electoral overperformers are wrong-party governors like Andy Beshear and Phil Scott who don’t do very much.
3. Third parties are most likely to succeed when the differences between the two big parties are small (1992) or at least wrongly perceived to be small (2000) not when they’re both seen as too extreme.
4. Donald Trump’s behavior is very extreme but the main way that his policy platform differs from Mitt Romney’s 2012 platform is that he’s more moderate on social security, Medicare, gay rights, and abortion.
5. How much progress you make on Issue X is more a function of how much you’re willing to drop or compromise on issues A, B, and C than of how aggressively you emote about X.
6. The qualities that are good for winning primaries and raising money are unrelated to (and in some ways antithetical to) the qualities that are good for winning general elections.
7. Increasing political polarization reflects deliberate choices made by highly engaged elite actors and is not an emergent property of the mass public.
I’m just curious why Hannity chose this moment to get tough with someone from the administration
Sean Hannity Puts Trump’s Press Secretary Through the Ringer: ‘What Happened?' mediaite.com/media/tv/sean-h…
Jeff Dufour retweeted
Check out our new bipartisan @AARP poll of the 43 @CookPolitical Toss-up and Lean-Dem/GOP districts.
Trump won these these swing districts by +6 and the Dems lead in the current generic ballot by +3.
In pure Toss-up seats, Dem lead by +4
Independents give Dems a +20 point advantage.
See all analysis deck here: bit.ly/4yMrNbr
Poll was conducted with GOP pollsters @TonyFabrizioGOP and my firm, Impact Research
Jeff Dufour retweeted
A conspiracy theorist dies and goes to heaven.
When he arrives, God says, “Welcome. Ask me anything you want.” The man says, “I need to know: was Talarico in an Ohio mental hospital?” God says, “No.”
The man pauses and then says, “Wow. This goes even higher than I thought.”
Jeff Dufour retweeted
Ukraine hits another Yandex data center in Russia and Cloudflare data shows Russian bot traffic dropping dramatically. Might have an impact right before the November elections.
Interesting subplot here: Rasmussen and Trafalgar had a lot of results in 2022 that were way too rosy for Rs. So either they’ve adjusted their methodology to be taken more seriously… or they haven’t adjusted and Dems are potentially ahead by even more
I'm really savoring the fact that a bunch of Eagles fans paid a lot of money to fly across the Atlantic to watch their team lose like that.
Interesting historical footnote here: Marjorie Merriweather Post willed Mar-a-Lago to the feds with the idea that it would become the winter White House. But presidents never went so the feds returned it to her foundation. Trump later bought it from them.
President Trump wants to transform his West Palm Beach golf club into a presidential retreat modeled after Camp David.
A proposal says it would be designed to host international summits and house presidents when they take vacations in Florida. wapo.st/4rXtvUY
Folks, @nationaljournal's polling and data columnist Natalie Jackson has just released the first poll by her new independent firm!! 🍾🍾
Hi friends, family, and foes:
Allow me to introduce the Centerline National Poll (my company).
Today's release is the first of several.
This first release covers Trump, Congress, party favorability, whether people can name a representative, and anti-incumbent sentiment.
This survey is not sponsored by any group, partisan or otherwise.
Links below:
Wow. Did NOT see this coming.
Breaking News: Karoline Leavitt, President Trump’s former White House press secretary, is joining Fox News as an on-air contributor. nyti.ms/4i2UFpN
