ddeLv retweeted
过去24小时发生了一些大事。外面有很多噪音，其中大多数是为了误导或欺骗，主流新闻一直都是这样。我直接切入正题。我们并不总是掌握全貌，因为我们不是内部人士，不知道黑客事件具体怎么发生的，也不知道它是不是真的只是失误，还是另有隐情。我们能看到的是价格和k线，这些是真实的，是内部人士所知情况的反映。但凡有任何内情就会立即抛货，绝不可能有半点虚假。
1. 根据官方消息，币安被黑了63亿美元，其中超过一半已被冻结。
2. 昨晚美股市场遭受重创，英特尔一度暴跌30%
在以往规模都比这次小的重大黑客事件中，比如Bybit被黑，全市场币种都出现两位数亏损，并失去所有看涨支撑。
然而，我在看过去几个月一直强势的币，比如ZEC LINK AAVE ZRO：
1. 它们仍然保持着看涨的上升趋势结构
2. 许多插针到了底部，现在已经收复了失去的支撑。
话虽如此但我们也不应忽视，这次黑客事件中损失了大量信任，币安被黑的消息已经上了电视。巴刹的大妈叔叔们、朋友们都在谈论这件事，说加密货币太不可靠了。这些新闻会传播到不懂加密的普通人耳朵里，他们会害怕，随着价格回升，会试图卖出。这会在任何上涨之前造成一些底部的重新测试。
过去十年我在这里的时候，这种情况已经发生过很多次。我看到时间线上到处都是人在发帖、抱怨、担忧。而自从昨天早上黑客事件发生以来，我和一些老手几乎没啥发帖。为什么？因为对我们来说这不是第一次，我们已经知道剧本会怎么演，我们很冷静，只是安静地看着我们知道稍后会发生的事情。当你是一个见过上千次风暴的老水手时，你会像年轻水手一样开始恐慌吗？你只会点根烟，放下帆，调整舵，观察水流，等着风暴靠近准备应对。你已经知道会发生什么，该怎么做。
🤖 Made with AI
ddeLv retweeted
If you somehow managed to see this, don’t scroll away
Please read it. Memo from goat quants
starkiller.capital/post/the-…
(h/t @HighStakesCap)
ddeLv retweeted
This will seem trivially obvious, but social networks are fundamentally misaligned with successful trading. The core incentive structures (engagement metrics) naturally push people toward sharing content that maximizes social validation rather than trading performance. They reward what *appears* impressive or generates attention, which often has little correlation with what actually generates consistent profits.
The deeper issue is that your motivations become shaped by how your network perceives you rather than by objective outcomes. When your primary feedback loop is social approval, biases inevitably creep in; you start optimizing for the appearance of success rather than actual profitability. This drift is almost unavoidable because social validation is far more tangible than the long-term, unglamorous work of developing a genuine advantage.
ddeLv retweeted
On days like today, I’m glad I’m diversified across stocks, gold and bitcoin because it allows me to lose money in three totally different ways.
and in sg, we got course sellers.
ddeLv retweeted
Don't get too high; the entire banking system is not going to collapse overnight, leading to hyperbitcoinization + 1 million $ BTC
Don't get too low; when we get a correction, this wasn't a scam pump engineered by CZ for exit liq, going back to 0
Stay even
Study 2019 and 2020
ddeLv retweeted
One very simple technique - but highly undervalued and underutilized: is scaling.
Most traders approach positions with an all-in, all-out mindset. One entry. One exit. And they expect to be exactly right.
In reality, that rarely works.
Markets don’t reward precision, they reward consistency and risk control.
Scaling In
Common situation: you believe there’s more upside, but the asset just had a strong move.
You hesitate - if you enter now and there's a pullback, you risk being shook out of it too early.
Wait for a pullback, and you might miss the entire move.
Instead, take a partial position. If it continues, you’re in. If it retraces, you can add lower.
This reduces your average entry price and increases your tolerance for volatility without overcommitting too early.
Scaling in avoids the trap of abandoning a good long-term trade due to short-term discomfort.
Scaling Out
You’re in a profitable trade. The gain is meaningful.
Exiting entirely might protect your profit - but if the move continues, you’re left on the sidelines.
Hold everything, and a reversal could wipe out most of the gain.
Scaling out solves that. Take partial profit as the trade develops.
If the market keeps moving in your favor, you still participate.
If it turns, you've already locked in gains.
There’s no need to be exactly right. Scaling reduces emotional pressure and improves execution over time.
It’s simple, but it works - and the edge it provides compounds.
Your should always aim to optimize for long-term +EV, not short-term perfection.
ddeLv retweeted
When Howard Marks speaks, you listen.
Here he is on Trump’s tariffs:
"People think falling prices mean rising risk, but that’s not always true. Think of it like Bloomingdale’s putting everything on sale - when the market drops, assets get cheaper. The S&P is down 8% in two days, more over six weeks. That should prompt buying, not panic.
Will prices fall further? Nobody knows. Are they fair now? Nobody knows that either. But it makes no sense to say, ‘I liked this asset at $100, but I’ll pass now at $90.’ That’s backward logic.
It takes a seasoned investor to judge whether the discounts are appropriate - but the worst move is to not look at all."
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A lot comes down to your time horizon, liquidity needs, and tolerance for volatility. Each to their own.
But don’t confuse falling prices with rising risk. If your thesis is intact and your capital is patient, dislocations can be opportunities, not threats.
