L/S equity HF Mgr. | Macroeconomics | Special Situation Investor | Nothing written by this account is financial advice, do your own research
Manhattan Beach, CA
Joined November 2024
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$ASTS $VOD
🧵Vodafone Investment Thesis
Current Price (2H FY26): $13
FY28 PT: ~$23
The Thesis in Brief: Vodafone has successfully transitioned from a distressed conglomerate into a disciplined, growth-focused connectivity platform. The market is currently pricing VOD on backwards-looking metrics; fixated on the painful German MDU transition and historical debt bloat. This creates a dislocation. This view identifies three mispriced levers that will drive a re-rating in FY27 and continued multiple expansion beyond:
Germany Turns the Corner: The operational drag from the TV Law change is fully priced in. FY27 represents the first clean year of EBITDA growth in the core German market.
The "SatCo" Option: The joint venture with AST SpaceMobile is currently valued at zero by consensus. We view it as a high-margin infrastructure monopoly for European Direct-to-Device (D2D) connectivity, worth ~$2.00/share alone on FY28 EBITDA estimates discounted backwards.
Capital Discipline as a Floor: The massive share buyback program (reducing float by ~15% vs. FY24) provides a mechanical floor to the stock price, while structurally lowering the dividend burden.
First comes the interest rate trade, then comes the debasement trade, then comes the “why is AI watching every move I make, and why is quantum a real thing, we’re all fucked” trade
Zcash wins in every market regime moving forward
When the socialist movement explodes in late 2027 and around election time 2028, everyone will wanna fuck off the face of the earth.
Private money is the only way to do that.
Zcash.
If you’re confused why $CRWV is headed to $0, here’s why
Finance creates its own reality primarily through reflexivity, where collective human beliefs, perceptions, and market expectations actively shape economic outcomes rather than just passively tracking them.
Why is this relevant through the frame of the AI trade?
If $CRWV and the pure play infrastructure companies can’t fulfill on their commitments both debt and revenue, then what’s to say lenders are willing to lend to these business models after an inevitable default? Most of these businesses can’t work if their cost of capital is too high. Debt has gotten more expensive, and now their equity is tanking, making ATMs highly punitive to share count.
If these businesses can’t scale without getting $ from Nvidia financing their GPUs, then how does the application layer (the Anthropic’s of the world) continue to scale ARR?
That’s the issue I primarily see happening in 2027. Expectations have been built so high, the markets have reflexively priced businesses as if AGI has been achieved broadly and cash flows are imminent. That’s just not the case.
There’s still a massive lead time on the building of power infrastructure. Everything from power transformers, gas turbines, water, grid connections, permitting, and politics get in the way. I’m incredibly bearish on these bottlenecks causing a prolonged slowdown if the democrats win the midterms.
Stay vigilant and defensive for the next 18 months. Buying the dip won’t work. Think of all your favorite AI stocks down 50-75% from here over the next 12 months.
That is all.
DVD retweeted
Im seeing a ton of “everyone thinks it’s black monday, so the pain trade is up” posts. Stfu. Sit back. Times are different now.
The pain trade is so down that it makes your favorite fintwit influencer silent for 6-12 months.
Cost of capital is higher. Iran war is not over until a MOAB gets dropped. Oil prices aren’t at $150 yet. S&P is only 3% off its highs. The market regime has changed. Stop begging for your next dopamine hit. S&P FCF yield is like 2%. Why wouldn’t I just own TLT and get risk free 3x the yield?
Zcash is the one crypto I personally own and back. I think it’s the most relevant cryptographic money in the ever more dangerous world of AI/quantum we’ve entered.
OFFICIAL: #Zcash is about to get a lot faster. 🚀
Developers locked in the NU7 upgrade for Nov 5 (block 3,543,405). Block times drop from 75s to 25s, tripling payment speed.
Privacy stays, speed levels up. zcash:native
$ASTS
The best way to model revenues for AST is to assume each MNO saves ~$500M-$1B a year in macro tower capex, and they split off 25% of the capex savings to AST.
You get to a pretty large number without much effort
$ASTS locking up the European market (and beyond) with the 4 biggest MNO operators on the continent while the market continues to sleep.
- Vodafone: 279M. Europe and Africa.
- Orange: 321M. France, Spain, rest of Europe, Africa & Middle East.
- Telefónica: 249M. Spain, Brazil, Germany, UK, remaining Latin America.
- Deutsche Telekom: ~255M. US (~133M), Germany (75M), rest of Europe (47M).
Total: ~1.1 billion mobile customers
Let’s replace black Monday with black 2027. I don’t know why ppl try to predict what’s going to happen tomorrow. Trends don’t play out overnight.
DVD retweeted
Finance creates its own reality primarily through reflexivity, where collective human beliefs, perceptions, and market expectations actively shape economic outcomes rather than just passively tracking them.
Why is this relevant through the frame of the AI trade?
If $CRWV and the pure play infrastructure companies can’t fulfill on their commitments both debt and revenue, then what’s to say lenders are willing to lend to these business models after an inevitable default? Most of these businesses can’t work if their cost of capital is too high. Debt has gotten more expensive, and now their equity is tanking, making ATMs highly punitive to share count.
If these businesses can’t scale without getting $ from Nvidia financing their GPUs, then how does the application layer (the Anthropic’s of the world) continue to scale ARR?
That’s the issue I primarily see happening in 2027. Expectations have been built so high, the markets have reflexively priced businesses as if AGI has been achieved broadly and cash flows are imminent. That’s just not the case.
There’s still a massive lead time on the building of power infrastructure. Everything from power transformers, gas turbines, water, grid connections, permitting, and politics get in the way. I’m incredibly bearish on these bottlenecks causing a prolonged slowdown if the democrats win the midterms.
Stay vigilant and defensive for the next 18 months. Buying the dip won’t work. Think of all your favorite AI stocks down 50-75% from here over the next 12 months.
That is all.
Im seeing a ton of “everyone thinks it’s black monday, so the pain trade is up” posts. Stfu. Sit back. Times are different now.
The pain trade is so down that it makes your favorite fintwit influencer silent for 6-12 months.
Cost of capital is higher. Iran war is not over until a MOAB gets dropped. Oil prices aren’t at $150 yet. S&P is only 3% off its highs. The market regime has changed. Stop begging for your next dopamine hit. S&P FCF yield is like 2%. Why wouldn’t I just own TLT and get risk free 3x the yield?