They never fail to call the bottom.
Green Day tom.
JPMORGAN CUTS S&P 500 OUTLOOK AS OIL SHOCK RAISES RECESSION RISK
JPMorgan has lowered its year-end S&P 500 target to 7,200 from 7,500 as surging oil prices—driven by the Iran conflict—heighten recession risks.
The bank warns markets may be underestimating the economic impact of higher energy costs. While investors focus on inflation, JPMorgan sees a bigger threat to consumer demand, which could weaken growth. Historically, oil spikes above 30% often trigger demand destruction and have frequently preceded recessions.
In the near term, the S&P 500 could fall further, especially after dropping below its 200-day moving average—a bearish signal. If selling continues, the index may find support around 6,000–6,200.
Although JPMorgan still expects a recovery later in the year, supported by investment and stimulus, gains are likely to be more limited due to ongoing geopolitical risks.
