dippuccino

Hard agree here. I always heavily encourage people to take profit (especially if up a meaningful/life-altering amount), but The phase of the market we're in matters... a lot There are three buckets: -Below ATH -Just underneath or just barely past ATH -Past ATH Right now we're at the earliest phase of "Below ATH". We're 50k below ATH. And I think a lot of people have expectations (and the expectations of a large group matter, in markets) of going 50k above the prev ATH Which is to say.. we're insanely early. I liken the Bessent yield curve control tweet (ie "gov is gonna inject a ton of money into markets) as analogous to when the intern leaked the BTC ETF news last cycle: There was a BIG impulse up, but then things stalled out, and spent a few weeks slowwwly letting some of the air out of the balloon. But that didn't matter - it was the market tipping its hand to what it *was* going to do under the approval. Sound familiar? If we were cruising around the previous ATH, maybe between 115k, or just past it at 130k, I might be a lot more cautious and measured. I think there's still conviction there that we're going substantially higher (why else would we be here, right? if BTC doesn't go above its previous ATH, the entire industry is cooked) And I'd be especially cautious, and actively shaving off/selling anywhere above that (130, 140, 150k, etc) But selling and sidelining, right here? - Fifty thousand dollars below prev ATH, after the treasury secretary signaled "let's intervene, let's grow our way out of debt", - We have unprecedented regulatory tailwinds, with the SEC not only not antagonizing people, but quite literally cheering us on (ie clarity act doesn't really matter, just a dump truck of icing on a really yummy cake if/when it comes) - We are literally weeks away from a massive cohort of VERY rich "4 year cycle intact" buyers and sellers that, with cultlike zealousness sell or bid the 4 year cycle top/bottom mark (and this is their 'buy' zone) - Inflation is ~at expectation, even with oil elevated, and with bonds and other things looking dicey, Trump's hand could finally get forced to finally stop doing disastrous bullshit in Iran, stuff that even many of his supporters are tilted by - Us stopping here, just purely on charts, is just letting long term moving averages catch up a bit If I was sidelined here (to what end? re-entering potentially 5, 10% lower?), I'd be shaking like a shitting dog. Under these conditions, we're literally something like *a single tweet or press release away* from impulsing past the 50 week MA, and every single conviction/quality onchain bag could move up 300% within a week, and majors doubling, kicking off the real consensus bull market in earnest. This all happens into the early end of the 4 year cycle buyer's bids, which then can tsunami in and rip us faster than people can appreciate. Like man, I dunno. I'm pretty conservative and risk averse -- but that same risk aversion makes me think not being exposed here, and not simply being patient for a bit is what's risky. Being sidelined is risky, to me. Because Doug Funnie Said So, Show me your Knot, Diaperliquid.