Combining data analysis and my love for NASCAR. Working on creating a public database for historical data. Check our site below!
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Joined February 2025
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Finalizing our website stuff, but in the meantime, I created three dashboards of historic results for the three touring series(Cup/NXS/Trucks).
Check em out below and let me know what you think!
In Season Challenge! Throw in a bracket! fantasygames.nascar.com/in-s…
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Did a little analysis of the NASCAR predictor model through week 9 this morning.
Pleased with the results so far, as it seems to be dialing in more each week.
Of these 9 races, the winner has come from the model picks 7/9 times (with the exception of Daytona and Martinsville.
Free picks here. My model has had the winner of the last 5/6 races come out of these weekly picks.
40% of these guys wind up in the top 5, 66% of these wind up in the top 10.
For what it’s worth, I’m rocking with Denny again.
So through 4 weeks of this model:
40% of our 5 race picks have finished in the Top5
65% of our 5 picks have finished in the Top10
100% of race winners have come from our 5 picks. - Reddick(1), Blaney(1), Hamlin(2), Reddick(1). Hamlin is the only non 1 pick to win so far.
Good deal for Allgaier but man that sucks for Bowman.
Alex Bowman will miss at least the next three races as he continues to recover from vertigo. Justin Allgaier will fill in through Bristol.
“Alex continues to experience symptoms, so we are following the guidance of the medical team and giving him the time he needs to recover."
bit.ly/4rBurMM
For the second week in a row, we had 2/5 of the model picks finish in the Top 5, and 4/5 finish in the Top 10.
Based on the model, this is what I took for fantasy picks: trying to couple chance of winning with points for places gained.
Fun little fact I researched today while watching Full Speed.
Out of 68 Daytona 500s, there has only been 45 unique winners.
583 unique drivers have raced that race since 1959. That’s less than 10% of all drivers that can say they’ve won.
Rare air, indeed.
4/5 of our top picks finished inside the top 10!
Our number one pick finished P1 too.
One week is a fluke as far as modeling is concerned, but excited to see how this continues to learn and output over the next few weeks.
Onto Phoenix!
I put together a lil RStudio model for @DirtyAirData this week.
Trained on results from the last 25 seasons, run against qualifying and current season results, and outputs confidence picks for T5 and T10.
We will tinker with it after I get back from COTA. Here’s the picks.
Distilled all my different tableau Vizzes into 3 workbooks for ease of updates.
All three are now live on the website in a (hopefully) easier to use form.
Check em out.
jgwritestoomuch.wixsite.com/…
What else do you wanna see? I’m in the process of tinkering with the outcome model for weekly races at the cup level, and we did pretty good last week with 4/5 picks in the Top 10.