I think #Pennsylvania has helped to show what kind of Democrat can overperform electorally. In early 2025, James Malone won a Trump +15 seat in Lancaster County. This week, Brandon Dukes won an even redder seat in Butler County. Both ran as pragmatic, non-ideological Democrats.

One thing I'd like to see in PA's new Congressional map for the 2030s is a 9th district that includes Penn State. Right now, the 9th is a Trump +38 district that extends all the way north to the New York border, but instead, I think it should head west to include Centre County.

Could someone explain to me why Bob Harvie only got about 65% of the vote in his primary last week? And in PA-10, why did Janelle Stelson also show weakness in the primary? It worries me that strong candidates for the general election aren't doing well in Democratic primaries.

After the 2030 Census, #Pennsylvania will lose a House seat. In this map, I've drawn 16 districts that will be roughly equal in population by the end of this decade. I'd really like some feedback. Have I respected PA's regions, or not? Feel free to ask me anything about the map.

I made this simple map to show the population shifts from 2020 to 2025 in #Pennsylvania. I grouped counties together based on whether they were gaining or losing population. Basically, eastern PA (besides Philly) has been growing steadily. South Central PA especially stands out.

I've been working on a new Congressional map of Pennsylvania that uses the 2025 population estimates that the Census Bureau recently released. Any thoughts on this map? I tried to make a fair, compact map. There are 5 Dem seats, 5 GOP seats, and 6 that are competitive. #PApol

If you have Brian Fitzpatrick as your member of Congress, today might just be the most important day to call his office. But please don't just yell at a staffer. Instead, make a reasoned argument, and mention that there's nothing conservative about adding $4 trillion to the debt.

One of the most important Democratic primaries in 2026 could be in PA's 7th House district, where Lamont McClure and Carol Obando-Derstine are running to flip a seat held by Ryan Mackenzie (R). My question: if the primary were today, who would you vote for? #PApol

Tomorrow at 7 PM on Zoom, Fair Districts PA will be hosting Katie Fahey, who is basically the reason that Michigan has an independent redistricting commission. It should be a good talk, so consider joining us! For more info and the Zoom link, see below. tinyurl.com/4czu6t9b

I've been working on a 16-district House map of PA, and wanted to get some feedback. It's never easy deciding which seat to eliminate, but I chose to move the 5th district to West PA, having it become the successor to the current 17th. There are five competitive seats in total.

I have a new article out today about Pennsylvania that goes through how it flipped red last fall. I also look at the three House seats in PA (the 7th, 8th, and 10th) that by themselves, could flip the House blue next fall. Give it a read: countdown2026.substack.com/p…

Allentown and Reading really do belong in the same House district, and it should be considered next decade. PA will lose a House seat, so the 7th will have to expand anyway. Here's one way to draw the district, which would be very competitive; it was only Harris +3 last fall.

It's pretty astonishing to me that York County, which is generally working class, shifted to the right less than Chester County, which is PA's most affluent and educated county. It speaks to migration patterns in York, but Harris's underperformance in Chester is still shocking.

Looks like both Erie and Northampton County were nearly perfect bellwethers for the presidential result in PA (Trump +2). But with the Senate race, Northampton County reflected the final result a bit better than did Erie (Casey won narrowly Erie but lost Northampton by a point).

Which do you think is more likely next week: Harris flips Cumberland County blue, or Trump flips Lackawanna County red? To be clear, neither county seems poised to flip, but both are certain to be within single digits, and the margins can help reveal where PA is heading. #PApol

Over the last week, Harris has seen national polls move against her, but there's been no real movement in PA, MI, and WI. All three states remain virtually tied. It's a reminder that Harris could win the popular vote by a point or so, and still narrowly win the Electoral College.

With 19 days to go, I just posted my final look at the seven swing states. For each state, I look at the latest polling average and make the case for why Harris/Trump could win there. And yes, PA gets its fair share in my post. It's the key swing state! countdownto2024.substack.com…

Northampton and Erie County both have a strong case for being PA bellwethers, but I think they'll diverge next month. In Erie, only 29% of adults have a college degree, whereas Northampton is close to the state average of 35%. Trump may narrowly win Erie will losing Northampton.