Courtney Donovan Smith 石東文 (@donovan_smith) header
Courtney Donovan Smith 石東文 (@donovan_smith) profile picture

Staff Columnist, Taipei Times Co-publisher, Compass Magazine Co-founder, Taiwan Report Central Taiwan correspondent, ICRT Former Chair, Taichung AmCham

Joined June 2009
Photo by Courtney Donovan Smith 石東文 (@donovan_smith)Photo by Courtney Donovan Smith 石東文 (@donovan_smith)Photo by Courtney Donovan Smith 石東文 (@donovan_smith)Photo by Courtney Donovan Smith 石東文 (@donovan_smith)Photo by Courtney Donovan Smith 石東文 (@donovan_smith)Photo by Courtney Donovan Smith 石東文 (@donovan_smith)Photo by Courtney Donovan Smith 石東文 (@donovan_smith)Photo by Courtney Donovan Smith 石東文 (@donovan_smith)Photo by Courtney Donovan Smith 石東文 (@donovan_smith)Photo by Courtney Donovan Smith 石東文 (@donovan_smith)
Other than suffering from a raspy, dry throat, this was fun. Entirely cooincidentally, @DafyddFell's fascinating presentation dovetailed nicely with how I ended my speech.
Taiwan is more than chips and tensions with China. Its democracy deserves attention too. At Taiwan Corner, three experts explored November’s local elections and how they could shape Taiwan’s political future. The event was supported by Taiwan Foundation for Democracy. @brianhioe @donovan_smith @DafyddFell taiwancorner.org/why-taiwan-…
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Thanks to Euroview for inviting me to write for them! This election is nuts. The DPP is telling anyone in the press who will listen to them that they think the "Ocean Wave" will be like the "Han Wave" and will add +6 points nationwide, meanwhile 1/2 euroview.ecct.com.tw/categor…
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the KMT is doing the same with the message that the excitement is just same old Bluebird crowd, and it will fall apart like last year's recalls. So which is it? The problem is this year's polling is dreadful. If you want to find a poll to confirm whichever viewpoint, you can. 2/2
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I'm mulling writing a piece on the atrocious state of polling this year, building on the work done in that Voicetank piece and this excellent piece by Nathan Batto. I agree with both pieces, but I have some things to add. frozengarlic.wordpress.com/2…
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Good thread. The last times I saw Ma put on stage he was scheduled early, not with the heavyweights, and he shuffled slowly (he is old, so not unexpected), but also mumbled into the microphone. I doubt they'll use this election cycle.
Taiwan election races thread (Oct 25): This afternoon Puma Shen showed up at Chang Ming-yu's (張銘祐) and Chen Hsien-wei's (陳賢蔚) councilor candidacy events. Chang is running for Zhongzheng/Wanhua. Chen is an incumbent running in Shilin–Beitou. /1
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Good points. Last year, I highlighted that the financial and personnel stresses brought on by the attempts to use KMT membership rolls (some deceased) to pad out recall signature forms against DPP lawmakers that led to widespread arrests could impact both this year. 1/2
Taiwan election tidbits: The state of the election is discussed on Mirror News; one guest says he's hearing that last year's recall effort actually had an unexpected benefit to the DPP, many local KMT organizations had spent the equivalent of election year finances on 2025... /1
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The KMT has a deep bench of talent in their election machine, probably better than the DPP's, but the widespread arrests may have dimished their advantage, and made it harder to recruit new volunteers.
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From a strategic perspective, I don't think either camp benefits from doing this. Chiang would probably have the edge, but will open himself to scrutiny by grammar nazis. Ho would likely look visibly uncomfortable. 4/5
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Also, why do it in a foreign language for a mayoral race? English is an asset, but hardly crucial for dealing with municipal govt, other skills are far more important, including communication skills in local languages promoting city programs, which a debate could highlight. 5/5
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As far as I know, this is their first joint appearance since around the KMT congress in late July. They were at the same event once, but not at the same time. Rumours that candidates were avoiding Cheng do not look to be true, but they don't seem to be seeking her out either. 1/3
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She is popular with Wei in Changhua and Chen in Kinmen, though -- but also unsurprisingly hasn't been on stage with Johnny Chiang since July (as far as I know). It is still possible she could be marginalized like Wu in 2018, but so far it hasn't happened. 2/3
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I suspect Cheng is intentionally keeping a lower profile and focusing on her job as KMT chair, largely avoiding controversial comments. That would make strategic sense, and avoids stoking splits internally. 3/3
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