Dr. Skywalker

Every single day $QQQ dropped 6% or more since its March 1999 inception, 30 total including today, and what happened at the next session's close: 𝟸𝟶𝟶𝟶-𝟶𝟷-𝟶𝟺:  −𝟼.𝟾𝟼%, Next day:  −𝟸.𝟻𝟻% 𝟸𝟶𝟶𝟶-𝟶𝟷-𝟶𝟼:  −𝟼.𝟾𝟽%, Next day: +𝟷𝟸.𝟹𝟽% 𝟸𝟶𝟶𝟶-𝟶𝟺-𝟷𝟶:  −𝟼.𝟷𝟶%, Next day:  −𝟸.𝟹𝟽% 𝟸𝟶𝟶𝟶-𝟶𝟺-𝟷𝟺:  −𝟾.𝟼𝟼%, Next day: +𝟷𝟷.𝟻𝟷% 𝟸𝟶𝟶𝟶-𝟶𝟻-𝟷𝟶:  −𝟽.𝟸𝟽%, Next day:  +𝟼.𝟷𝟷% 𝟸𝟶𝟶𝟶-𝟶𝟻-𝟸𝟹:  −𝟾.𝟹𝟻%, Next day:  +𝟼.𝟸𝟽% 𝟸𝟶𝟶𝟶-𝟶𝟿-𝟸𝟷:  −𝟽.𝟸𝟽%, Next day:  +𝟻.𝟿𝟷% 𝟸𝟶𝟶𝟶-𝟷𝟷-𝟶𝟾:  −𝟽.𝟾𝟸%, Next day:  −𝟶.𝟶𝟸% 𝟸𝟶𝟶𝟶-𝟷𝟸-𝟷𝟿:  −𝟽.𝟼𝟸%, Next day:  −𝟻.𝟽𝟹% 𝟸𝟶𝟶𝟷-𝟶𝟷-𝟶𝟸:  −𝟾.𝟺𝟼%, Next day: +𝟷𝟼.𝟾𝟺% 𝟸𝟶𝟶𝟷-𝟶𝟷-𝟶𝟻:  −𝟽.𝟼𝟻%, Next day:  +𝟷.𝟷𝟶% 𝟸𝟶𝟶𝟷-𝟶𝟸-𝟸𝟽:  −𝟼.𝟶𝟺%, Next day:  −𝟹.𝟷𝟼% 𝟸𝟶𝟶𝟷-𝟶𝟹-𝟶𝟿:  −𝟽.𝟶𝟷%, Next day:  −𝟼.𝟸𝟷% 𝟸𝟶𝟶𝟷-𝟶𝟹-𝟷𝟸:  −𝟼.𝟸𝟷%, Next day:  +𝟻.𝟶𝟾% 𝟸𝟶𝟶𝟷-𝟶𝟹-𝟸𝟶:  −𝟼.𝟽𝟹%, Next day:    𝟶.𝟶𝟶% 𝟸𝟶𝟶𝟷-𝟶𝟹-𝟸𝟾:  −𝟾.𝟸𝟷%, Next day:  −𝟷.𝟾𝟿% 𝟸𝟶𝟶𝟷-𝟶𝟺-𝟶𝟹:  −𝟽.𝟹𝟹%, Next day:  −𝟷.𝟽𝟼% 𝟸𝟶𝟶𝟷-𝟶𝟺-𝟸𝟹:  −𝟼.𝟽𝟷%, Next day:  −𝟷.𝟾𝟾% 𝟸𝟶𝟶𝟷-𝟶𝟿-𝟷𝟽:  −𝟾.𝟻𝟶%, Next day:  −𝟸.𝟸𝟺% 𝟸𝟶𝟶𝟷-𝟷𝟶-𝟷𝟽:  −𝟽.𝟷𝟾%, Next day:  +𝟸.𝟽𝟷% 𝟸𝟶𝟶𝟾-𝟶𝟿-𝟸𝟿:  −𝟽.𝟿𝟺%, Next day:  +𝟸.𝟾𝟾% 𝟸𝟶𝟶𝟾-𝟷𝟶-𝟶𝟽:  −𝟼.𝟹𝟺%, Next day:  −𝟶.𝟾𝟶% 𝟸𝟶𝟶𝟾-𝟷𝟶-𝟷𝟻:  −𝟾.𝟿𝟼%, Next day:  +𝟻.𝟺𝟸% 𝟸𝟶𝟶𝟾-𝟷𝟸-𝟶𝟷:  −𝟽.𝟻𝟸%, Next day:  +𝟹.𝟹𝟺% 𝟸𝟶𝟷𝟷-𝟶𝟾-𝟶𝟾:  −𝟼.𝟶𝟸%, Next day:  +𝟺.𝟾𝟸% 𝟸𝟶𝟸𝟶-𝟶𝟹-𝟶𝟿:  −𝟼.𝟿𝟻%, Next day:  +𝟻.𝟺𝟻% 𝟸𝟶𝟸𝟶-𝟶𝟹-𝟷𝟸:  −𝟿.𝟷𝟽%, Next day:  +𝟾.𝟺𝟽% 𝟸𝟶𝟸𝟶-𝟶𝟹-𝟷𝟼: −𝟷𝟷.𝟿𝟾%, Next day:  +𝟽.𝟻𝟾% 𝟸𝟶𝟸𝟻-𝟶𝟺-𝟶𝟺:  −𝟼.𝟸𝟷%, Next day:  +𝟶.𝟸𝟺% 𝟸𝟶𝟸𝟼-𝟷𝟷-𝟶𝟻:  −𝟼.𝟺𝟿%, Next day:     ??? Summary across all 29 prior instances: - Full history, 1999 to 2025: 17 green, 1 flat, 11 red. Avg +2.67%, median +2.71%. - Post-2008, 9 instances: 8/9 green, 89%. Avg +4.16%, median +4.82%. - Since 2010, 5 instances: 5/5 green, 100%.

$TQQQ Model issuing a SELL (EquityCircuitNextOpen) signal. Exit at tomorrow's open. Today's BearDip long (63.25) tripped the equity circuit breaker intraday (low 59.22 vs 59.33 trigger). Breaker cancels the breakdown short, so no short even with VIX at 21.2. 7-bar lockout, flat.

My $TQQQ model flashed a bearDip BUY signal at today's close. Entry: Monday's open. Targets oversold rebounds, with room to ride a sustained recovery and rule-based exits to manage risk. 2010-26: 41 trades - Win rate: 68.3% - Avg return: +10.9% - Avg loss: 3.3% - Max loss: 10.0%

My model is very likely to trigger a bearDip buy signal at today's close, as today's market drop has met all programmed entry conditions. ☠️☠️☠️

My regime indicator told me not to trade, but I broke my rule and ended up in a losing streak, though I cut my size diligently and only took paper cuts. But I am not happy with it. So what should I do? Admit the mistake, don't do it again, and follow my process.

Rule #1: don't blow up. Suggested read: arxiv.org/html/1603.06183v1

Model replay: 2018: Nov 13 BearDip -> Nov 14 BearDipBreakdown short. 2022: Jan 19 BearDip -> Jan 21 BearDipBreakdown short. The flip requires a specific model Exit + confirmation signal. A stop loss alone won't trigger it.

Possible model path: - Mon Close: Triggered a BearDip Buy Signal. - If price drops further: Exit long (Stop Loss) and flip to BearDipBreakdown Short.

My $TQQQ trend-following model issues a SELL signal (PeakGivebackNextOpen) after today's close. I'll exit my position tomorrow morning at open.

$66.8 will be my uncle point.

My swing trading account hasn't made any progress lately. The market regime being in RED says it all. I have only taken one trade in the last two weeks, and it was a loss.

Data without critical thinking is just noise. "If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything." — Ronald Coase Always validate your assumptions before letting the algorithms run wild. 📊💡

My $TQQQ model triggered a BullDip BUY signal (oversold pullback in uptrend) after Friday's close. The buy order will execute at Monday's market open. Max historical loss for the BullDip family was -12.7% in 2018 (when an 8% hard stop triggered a next-open exit into a gap down).

$QQQ: 5 straight down days, -5.52%. Since 1999, 7 similar cases: 5-day loss of 4–8%, still above the 140-DMA. Avg forward returns: - 1 day: +0.30% - 1 week: +2.40% - 6 months: +15.59% (6 complete cases) Small sample. Recovery can still begin with more downside.

FreshHighReversalSHORT can precede deeper corrections. In my model replay, 8/21 completed six-month cases saw QQQ fall 10%+ before regaining its pre-entry high; one reached 20%+ (COVID). A short exit or BullDip entry cannot confirm a bottom. $TQQQ $QQQ

The last precedent of a BullDip making a big move after a FreshHighReversalSHORT in my model was in late 2016 off the ATH. May trigger tomorrow after close if $TQQQ drops. Historically, this entry family has a 55.6% win rate, with an avg. gain of +21.8% and avg. loss of -4.5%.

When @dryan310 talks, I listen.