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after a sweep of the 12am–1am range low on $ES, price got back to the midpoint on 83.40% of sweeps over 2 years of data:
ES & NQ Live: Key Levels, Daily Bias & ORB Setups | Oct 26 with James & Andre xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1RJZzBYmL…
the top Monday stat on $NQ inside of edgeful discovery right now…
over the last year, on Mondays:
→ broke yesterday's high, closed green: 90%
→ broke yesterday's low, closed red: 70%
26 of the last 29 Mondays that broke yesterday's high on $NQ closed green.
takeaway:
yesterday's high breaks on a Monday = look for continuation longs into the close
yesterday's low breaks on a Monday = look for continuation shorts into the close
the market will take your money and teach you nothing if you let it. or it will take your money and teach you everything. the difference is whether you showed up to trade or showed up to learn.
edgeful retweeted
if $ES breaks yesterday's high on a Friday, here's how it usually closes:
over the last 6 months, on Fridays:
→ broke yesterday's high, closed green: 88%
→ broke yesterday's low, closed red: 83%
15 of the last 17 Fridays that broke yesterday's high on $ES closed green.
takeaway:
breaks yesterday's high on a Friday = favor continuation higher into the close
breaks yesterday's low on a Friday = favor continuation lower into the close
edgeful retweeted
when the $NQ 15min ORB high formed first, the low broke first 64%, and when the low formed first, the high broke first 72%:
Some useful NQ M15 ORB Data to look at:
On Thursdays, if the high forms first, the low breaks first 64% of the time. If the low forms first, the high breaks first 72% of the time.
Pair this with your setup for a higher probability trade.
1 year’s worth of data via @edgeful
edgeful retweeted
if you're taking profits right at the 15min ORB high on $NQ, look at this first…
over the last 6 months, on days that only broke the ORB high:
→ reached the 0.5 extension: 87.88%
→ reached the 0.8 extension: 75.76%
25 of the last 33 ORB-high-only days on $NQ reached the 0.8 extension.
takeaway:
ORB high breaks and the low holds = favor continuation to the 0.8 extension
edgeful retweeted
when the 8:12–9:12 range on $NQ was under 100 points, 74% of days took both the high and the low:
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algo templates fix that. optimized on 6 months of data, tested on data they haven’t seen, refreshed every two weeks.
new algos drop tomorrow.
edgeful retweeted
$30,470 profit in 6 months with this fully automated $NQ IB algo… check it out:
it's the IB breakeven stop strategy inside the algo templates, over the last 6 months:
→ $30,470 net profit
→ 63.8% win rate
→ 2.46 profit factor
→ 58 trades
→ -$3,640 max drawdown
then on untouched holdout data:
→ 55.6% win rate
→ 2.43 profit factor
→ $4,350 out-of-sample profit
→ $483 average per trade
takeaway:
the holdout sample is only 9 trades, so don't read too much into any one number…
the win rate dipped (63.8% to 55.6%), but the profit factor held almost flat on data the optimizer never saw (2.46 to 2.43), and that's the part worth paying attention to.
if $ES breaks yesterday's high on a Friday, here's how it usually closes:
over the last 6 months, on Fridays:
→ broke yesterday's high, closed green: 88%
→ broke yesterday's low, closed red: 83%
15 of the last 17 Fridays that broke yesterday's high on $ES closed green.
takeaway:
breaks yesterday's high on a Friday = favor continuation higher into the close
breaks yesterday's low on a Friday = favor continuation lower into the close
edgeful retweeted
if you trade fair value gaps on $NQ, this stat is hard to ignore…
over the last 6 months, 15min FVGs bigger than 0.25%:
→ bullish FVGs left unmitigated: 88.24%
→ bearish FVGs left unmitigated: 82.35%
15 of the last 17 big bullish 15min FVGs on $NQ held without a close through.
takeaway:
big 15min FVG = look for continuation off the gap, not a close back through it
