Chair of Data and Technology for the Madison (AL) County Democratic Party. Degrees in Economics and Mathematics.
Huntsville, AL
Joined August 2026
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Now RE-introducing the NEW AND IMPROVED 2026 Alabama Legislative Forecast!
jacksonahannan.github.io/ala…
Jackson Hannan retweeted
TEXAS IPEV DAY 8 UPDATE
Single best day for the Republicans so far, as expected. The 3/3 vote went up massively for the first time during the whole EV period. This was primarily older/whiter voters. Relative to 2024 though, it was slightly bluer (estimated R+14 vs. R+16)
The shift in the counties is now down to D+7.3 - a good Republican day has actually cut down on the shift a bit.
We have now added 3 new rural counties - to get a closer look at rural white turnout - there will be more.
Medina (Trump +42)
Jasper (Trump +66)
Wood (Trump +70)
Rural turnout is starting to come out for the GOP, but is still lower than the urbans. The partisan shift in the electorate on turnout is still the strongest in Tarrant + Hispanic areas.
Nothing much has really differed. The share of non-2024 voters continues to rise. Tomorrow is day 9 - will be crucial for GOP to get their base out these next couple, as the low-prop minorities start to form the rise of the U shape in the last few days. As @ZacharyDonnini has noted - the GOP is using up its remaining high-propensity voters, but younger/nonwhite Republican voters are getting dwarfed by Democratic turnout among the equivalent demographics.
Onward, another space tomorrow!
Interactive: claude.ai/artifact/QSaAiFYUj…
Jackson Hannan retweeted
Wow. Another big-name moderate Republican from *Amarillo* who was a state senator until 2023 - in Talarico's camp.
Jackson Hannan retweeted
We're also seeing a similar trend in other racially diverse pockets in Virginia, but at an even larger rate. The more Latino+Asian, the higher the turnout against 2025.
A big driver is that NoVA tends to jump from 37% of the vote in GOV years to 38% in midterms.
Jackson Hannan retweeted
The most insane number across the Commonwealth is in VA-2 in the southern half of Franklin City, which is very racially redlined. It's casting almost twice the number of early ballots that it did at this point in 2025. Luria campaign doing exceptionally well with black turnout.
Jackson Hannan retweeted
Polls showed weak GOP support among young voters and dismal Trump approval. But few expected turnout to collapse among Republicans 44 and younger, not just those under 30.
Young Democrats are turning out at a pretty solid midterm pace; young Republicans are barely showing up.
Jackson Hannan retweeted
The Blacker the precinct in Virginia, the higher the turnout compared to 2025. By next week, we are looking at the highest share of the Black vote in a Virginia election in modern history.
Jackson Hannan retweeted
Black voters make up a much larger share of Georgia’s early electorate than at this point in 2024, following a similar trajectory for the last couple of weeks.
I expect the gap to finally narrow a bit this week as more high-propensity Republican voters finally come out.
There's been a lot of talk about AL-02 over the past few days, so here's a map of what a one vote Shomari Figures victory might look like!
Quick and dirty, assuming an electorate 6% more black and 6% less white than 2024 and some reasonable education splits among white voters.
For reference, Democrats actually cast 4.3% more ballots than Republicans in this district in the May primary, but that was off of the back of some ludicrous turnout differential in black and white areas which I don't expect to persist.
At the same time, the national environment has deteriorated a lot for Republicans since May.
Either way, keep an eye on this one!
Jackson Hannan retweeted
Now, comparing to 2024 at the same point, we see that almost every group is turning out at a lower rate (not surprising at all, given that '24 was a presidential), except younger Latinos (esp young Latina women) and young AAPI women, who are all incredibly outperforming 2024.
Jackson Hannan retweeted
18k 18-29 voters in GA today, 53% of the same day in 2024, by far the highest %24 day so far. Today only:
Black 18-29: 77.3% of 2024
White 18-29 voters in blue ATL counties: 51.9%
White 18-29 in the rest of the state: 31.3%
Cumulative numbers below
The more Hispanic a precinct, the better it is holding up compared to the comparable time period in 2024
