Finding the next 100-baggers | Hedge Fund Manager @emjcapital | @EMJXai $SRXH | Founder @EventHorizonIQ | Columbia PhD | Finance, Music & Culture
Toronto, Canada
Joined March 2007
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I don't spend my time looking for the next 10% trade.
I'm looking for the next Carvana, like when I got into it at $15 in May 2023. The next stock the market has written off that could become worth 10, 20, even 100 times more.
But finding one means doing the work most people skip.
Reading the filings. Understanding the debt. Studying the management and board. Figuring out what the market is missing — and what would prove the thesis wrong.
I share my broader thinking publicly.
My X subscribers get the deeper research, ongoing thesis updates, the evidence I'm tracking, and a private AMA Space with me every week.
Not every idea works. Not every stock deserves to be bought. And sometimes the right answer is to do nothing.
If you want to understand the work behind the conviction, that's what my subscriber community is for.
Subscribe through my X profile.
Everyone will report that yields broke 5% today. Almost nobody will report what kind of rally it was: real yields did 80% of the work, breakevens fell with them, crypto fell 4% and vol spiked 16%. Relief rallies lift risk assets with bonds. Today's didn't. That's the growth-scare pattern, not the goldilocks pattern — and the difference is the whole positioning question. Follow @EventHorizonIQ for the daily read.
Yesterday's question, answered: the 10Y didn't hold 5.10% — it closed 4.967% with breakevens contained at 2.34%. The rally resumed through real yields, with equities and crypto selling off.
THE 10Y CLOSED BELOW 5% — THE SCARE KIND OF RALLY
RATE DNA — 2026-10-22 (closing prices)
THE TAPE (observed): the nominal 10Y fell 15.2bp to 4.967%. Real yields fell 12.3bp to 2.627% — about 80% of the move. Breakevens fell 2.9bp to 2.341%. 10s30s steepened 3.7bp — the belly led. And risk assets didn't celebrate: BTC −3.9%, ETH −4.3%, VIX 16.68 → 19.28.
THE READ (interpretation — plausible, not proven): this looks like a growth-scare rally, not a Goldilocks rally. A relief rally lifts risk assets with bonds; today's didn't. The bond market is pricing growth damage.
THE TRANSMISSION:
· Housing: OPEN responded +3.6% — one rate-sensitive name, not a cohort verdict. The 10Y fell 15.2bp; mortgage rates track the 10Y plus MBS spreads, and the latest mortgage-rate reading (2026-10-15) predates the move.
· Crypto: BTC and ETH fell on a real-yield rally — the expected relief transmission didn't appear today; a hypothesis under test, not an established channel.
WHAT CHANGES THE READ (monitoring thresholds, not calibrated invalidations): a close back above 5.12% (the prior close) reverses the break; a hold below 5.00% keeps it live. Whether risk assets recover alongside yields is what separates growth relief from renewed inflation pressure.
YESTERDAY'S TELL, ANSWERED ('does the 10Y hold below 5.09% with breakevens contained near 2.37% — or does the fall reverse?'): 10Y 4.967% — HELD BELOW 5.09% · breakevens 2.341% — contained · the fall extended through the close.
STATE: EASING (−3.048, growth-led mode — this morning's print; tomorrow's close recomputes).
THE LEAN (forecast — output published, edge not established): the model leans LOWER on the real 10Y through Nov 5. In backtests its LOWER leans were right 42% of the time against a 45% base rate — below its own benchmark — so the publication rule holds it back from a direction call. Live: 0 of 0 graded, 1 issued.
How the lean is graded: eventhorizoniq.com/sensors/r…
Follow @EventHorizonIQ for the daily read.
We may hold positions in instruments discussed. eventhorizoniq.com/disclosur…
I traced all 32 Wingstop store numbers ever listed under Rick Ross's family's Boss Wings companies in Wingstop's own state filings. End-2016: 21 open. End-2025: 1, in Clarksdale. 28 now listed under other franchisees. No price or reason appears in any filing.
In 2024, Jay-Z said it would be "selfish" to pick himself for the Super Bowl too early.
Now Puck reports he's picked himself for 2027.
But the bigger story isn't the halftime show.
It's how Jay-Z went from performer to gatekeeper of music's biggest stage — and what happens when the gatekeeper wants the stage.
I went back to the original tape and the documents. Here's what I found:
Should a gatekeeper be allowed to choose himself? Tell me where you land.
Are you not entertained by these Knicks and Sixers?!?!?
Give me this as the ECF Finals NOW!
And the Raptors are going to be good too! (But imagine if we had just KEPT OG?!)
Keeping all shareholders updated on the paper trading performance of @EMJXai as promised:
Since 2/11 inception through today: +54.9%
BTC since then: +23.9%
MSTR and BMNR since then: +15.5%
EMJX CAGR: +88.5%
Our max drawdown over that period -11.3%
Our Sharpe: 1.95
Upside capture vs. BTC: 16%
Downside capture vs. BTC: -16%
Numbers are numbers.
We moved back into a BTC BULL market from MIXED last Thursday with BTC at $81,269.
The Army knew about the fire. Then the wind changed.
Four soldiers died at CFB Wainwright.
Environment Canada wrote the turn down at 5 a.m.— hashed records prove it. The internal memo called the change "unexpected."
Asked on TV whether training should have proceeded, the CDS deferred to the investigations.
The full @EventHorizonIQ Research investigation:
3 things on that form were true on August 3, 2015.
No copyrights, because the music sat in a company. No claims, because the claim hadn't ripened. $2.7M for the label, because the market that would later pay 30x hadn't been built.
All 3 correct. None of them stayed correct.
9 Drake albums at the Copyright Office. The author of the recordings on every one: the label, "employer for hire." On the songs, Drake is an author. That gap is the whole fight over whether his masters can ever come back.
Eric Jackson retweeted
Going live today from 4:15–5:00 PM ET for an exclusive X Subscribers AMA Spaces.
45 minutes. No prepared questions. Ask me anything.
Stocks. Markets. Music business. Building businesses. Life.
Just an open conversation with the people who support what I'm building here.
See you at 4:15. 👊
Going live today from 4:15–5:00 PM ET for an exclusive X Subscribers AMA Spaces.
45 minutes. No prepared questions. Ask me anything.
Stocks. Markets. Music business. Building businesses. Life.
Just an open conversation with the people who support what I'm building here.
See you at 4:15. 👊
Drake's being sued over "Janice STFU."
Here's what caught my eye. The plaintiff says he set out to reimagine Lykke Li's "I Follow Rivers." But all 3 writers of that song are already listed as writers of Drake's song.
The real fight is over what he added, and whether Drake's side heard it before the song was made.
I read the federal complaint. New video.
Sick!
How did Josh Allen make this TD pass to Keon Coleman?
BUFvsLV on CBS/Paramount+
Stream on @NFLPlus
50 Cent's company leased a city-owned film studio in Shreveport for $200 a month.
The 2024 lease is 37 pages. With notice by November 1, his company can walk away at the end of any year, with no liability to the city for leaving. If the city ever wants to accept an offer for the building, his company gets first refusal, usable from late 2032 while a federal mortgage remains. G-Unit pays the running costs.
In May, the city council voted to extend the lease to 99 years. I haven't seen the amendment's terms. Starz canceled BMF.
Nasdaq down 2.2% today? Some perspective.
Apple has survived THREE crashes of 77%+:
1983–85: −77%
1991–97: −81%
2000–03: −82%
Bitcoin:
2011: −93%
2013–15: −85%
2017–18: −84%
2021–22: −77%
Ethereum:
2018: −94%
2021–22: ~−80%
And the stocks:
Oracle: −81%
Netflix: −76%
Google: −63%
Microsoft: −50%
Carvana: −99%
Opendoor: −98%
Microsoft spent more than a decade underwater before its extraordinary comeback.
A massive drawdown doesn't guarantee a recovery. Some businesses never come back.
The opportunity is identifying which ones will.
That's where conviction, research and patience matter.
Own the future. Don't rent it.
A few people correctly pointed out one major omission from my list: AMAZON.
AMZN fell roughly 95% from its 1999 peak to its 2001 bottom.
It took nearly a DECADE to reclaim that peak.
Think about that. One of the greatest wealth-creating companies in history lost 95% of its market value along the way.
The lesson isn't to blindly hold through a 95% decline.
It's to figure out which businesses have the balance sheet, leadership and competitive advantages to survive — and eventually thrive.
That's the work.