College basketball analytics at https://xitter.cf/t.co/NEBQZukwEP, trusted by 100+ D1 teams. PhD Statistician. Host of The EvanMiya College Basketball Show. Hebrews 11:6.
Indianapolis, IN
Joined January 2014
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I have 3 teams that I am going to ride-or-die with this season.
In today's preseason bandwagon episode, @ryanhammer09 and I are each picking 3 teams we are absurdly high on this year.
Rules:
- No AP top 5 team
- Max 1 top 10 team
- Max 2 top 25 teams
youtube.com/watch?v=Mu9mQcyF…
A word on three point shooting regression:
Last year there were 164 players who returned to CBB who shot at least 40% from three the year prior (min 40 attempts). Only 13% of them shot above 40% again the next year, and just 7% matched or improved their percentage from prior.
Here are the top projected three-point shooters in college basketball this season at EvanMiya.com:
Kentucky's Milan Momcilovic has the highest predicted 3PT% in the nation.
Here are the top projected three-point shooters in college basketball this season at EvanMiya.com:
Kentucky's Milan Momcilovic has the highest predicted 3PT% in the nation.
These Player skill projections at EvanMiya.com take each player’s game-by-game history and quantify their skill level in three-point shooting by predicting how well they will perform in that area moving forward.
These projections adjust for important contextual variables across their career, including opponent strength, offensive usage, expected year-by-year improvement, and recent form.
Here's Momcilovic's 3PT profile:
Evan Miyakawa retweeted
🚨 Cerebro Sports 🤝 @EvanMiya
EvanMiya.com, the college analytics platform trusted by 120+ programs, will now use verified high school stats from Cerebro to power its player projections.
Better data in. Better fits out. 🏀📊
I simulated the season 10,000 times to determine the best-case and worst-case outcomes for all 365 CBB teams, using the preseason uncertainty estimates specific to each team.
You can find the results for every single conference here:
blog.evanmiya.com/p/2026-pre…
For those curious about my coffee wall background recommendations, being the nerd I am, I designed it like a scatterplot ☕️
I've got 3 teams that I am way high on relative to consensus.
Riding the bandwagon with these squads this year 👇
I have 3 teams that I am going to ride-or-die with this season.
In today's preseason bandwagon episode, @ryanhammer09 and I are each picking 3 teams we are absurdly high on this year.
Rules:
- No AP top 5 team
- Max 1 top 10 team
- Max 2 top 25 teams
youtube.com/watch?v=Mu9mQcyF…
For audio podcast listeners:
show.evanmiya.com
Mizzou fans:
I would be THRILLED for the model to be way wrong on Jason Crowe. It would be better for college basketball if he was an all-SEC level player like Darius Acuff was last year.
Like Acuff, his defense is what really holds him back here. Hope he proves me wrong.
The top 25 incoming high-school players in college basketball, according to the new projections model at EvanMiya.com.
The top 5: Jordan Smith, Tyran Stokes, Caleb Holt, Dylan Mingo, Miles Sadler.
The top 25 incoming high-school players in college basketball, according to the new projections model at EvanMiya.com.
The top 5: Jordan Smith, Tyran Stokes, Caleb Holt, Dylan Mingo, Miles Sadler.
There are going to be some really good D2 transfers in Division I this year!
Here are the top 15 projected D2 transfers at EvanMiya.com:
The top projected international recruits in college basketball this year, according to EvanMiya.com.
Quinn Ellis at St. John's is predicted to have the highest impact of any international prospect this season 👇
More detail on the international projections model here:
blog.evanmiya.com/p/new-inco…
Jason Crowe Jr has the 8th highest offensive BPR of any traditional high-school freshman this year, so that's great.
His defensive projection is really poor though compared to other similarly ranked guys in his class. Many people don't care about defense, but my models do.
Here are the top 30 incoming players to college basketball this season, according to the new projections model at EvanMiya.com:
Full details on how the model works here, including some notes on why guys like Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje are not higher (and probably should be):
blog.evanmiya.com/p/new-inco…
I have a new projections model for incoming HS, international, and D2 players, which is live on the site.
In this article, I rank the top newcomers in each group and break down how the models work.
Jordan Smith is #1, Stokes #2 ⤵️
blog.evanmiya.com/p/new-inco…
Dig in to all the preseason player ratings here:
evanmiya.com/player-ratings
