BRITAIN AND FRANCE — some thoughts. British and French politics are now moving in different directions. Macron destroyed the French centre-left/right parties in the 2017 presidential election. They have never recovered. But Macron’s centrist movement hasn’t filled the vacuum. Nor, even as his failures multiplied over almost a decade, was there a renaissance of the centre left/left but the rise of more extremes — Mélenchon’s LFI on the Left, Le Pen’s RN on the Right. Latest polls indicate they will juke it out in the presidential 2nd round next May — with Le Pen the easy winner. In Britain the rise of Reform on the Right and the Greens on the Left since the 2024 election + the collapse of Labour/Tories in the polls suggested, if not a Left/Right polarisation like France, then a new politics of multi-party democracy. But 2026 brought a major correction — it’s been a dire year for Reform and the Greens, whereas Labour/Tories (but especially Labour under Burnham) have enjoyed something of a renaissance from their polling nadirs. So, as French politics increasingly becomes a choice between populist Left and Right, the mainstream centre left/right has become once again the story in British politics. With the most recent polls showing Labour in the lead, the Tories second, Reform third (and still slipping), Greens nowhere (along with LDs). At the moment Labour must be favourite to win an election (at least end up the largest party). Of course Labour/Tories are still a long way off their former dominance in share of the vote. But they are, at least for now, on the way back, which is more than can be said for their French counterparts.

Indeed Bernie. Bodies lying all over the place here in Europe. No, wait. The 32,000 is not an actual body count. It’s the result of modelling by Imperial College on the basis of several dubious assumptions. People did die of heat this summer. They usually do when it gets v hot e.g 1976, 2003. The exact number is not clear. But even if 32,000 was a real figure we know for sure many, many more will die of cold this winter. They always do.

French intelligence expects 400,000—500,000 people to march across France tomorrow. Warns of likely attacks on public buildings and other symbols of the state plus "opportunistic looting". So a repeat of last Saturday expected. But with some shopkeepers organising their own defence. We shall see. Even more significant, French security services particularly concerned about 20,000 to 40,000 expected at Saturday's rally in Orleans organised by hard-left (communist) CGT union to protest against Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, which is holding its congress (conference) in Orleans. The National Rally expects about 5,000 people there on Saturday and up to 10,000 on Sunday, when Le Pen launches her presidential campaign. Protests on Sunday have been banned — though that doesn’t mean they won’t happen. Orleans will be a tinderbox.