The farther backward you can look, the farther forward you can see
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Thierry Laduguie retweeted
I resigned from Anthropic today. I spent the last three years doing pretraining research at both OpenAI and Anthropic. Neither company is acting responsibly. They are racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives. More thoughts below.
Thierry Laduguie retweeted
If you want to buy a £1m house instead of renting one consider this first:
£1m house. (One house, UK)
Stamp duty £43,750, gone to HMRC.
£250k down (not invested and earning)
£294k before you move in.
You borrow £750k at 5.63%.
£4,664 a month.
Over 25 years you give the bank £1.4m.
£650k of that is interest.
Year one, only £14k loan repayment.
If you rented the same house, it would cost about £3k a month.
Leave the £294k at a very low risk 4.5% investment portfolio and it returns £13k a year. You could make double that if you’re good.
I owned five properties, I now own two and it’ll soon be zero.
Rent4Life.
The FTSE 100 appears to have turned down but the S&P 500 is still in the uptrend. The 34-day BTI is near overbought currently at 355, a move above 400 is overbought and in this case it is a bearish signal. Sometimes the stock market turns down before the 34-day BTI is overbought, this could be the case
But the world isn't actually limited to a fixed amount of money that can be lent. Savings can increase, banks can create credit, foreign investors can provide capital, companies can use retained earnings, and — crucially — central banks can create liquidity. So the question becomes: Can the supply of capital increase quickly enough to meet the enormous increase in demand without pushing the required return higher? Yes it can but this would happen when the central bank intervenes to suppress/contain yields by buying bonds, this provides liquidity and the consequences are greater risk of inflation, and greater risk of currency debasement
This is why gold is rising, gold can rise with higher yields if investors anticipate that the central bank will intervene to suppress yields.
Meanwhile the enormous amount of money companies will have to borrow and the rise in yields is worrying investors. This should trigger a stock market correction. On the positive side the growth in earnings is expected to continue, for that reason the stock market correction will be short lived #FTSE $FTSE $SPX #NASDAQ #GOLD #XAUUSD
The weak July nonfarm payrolls (reported decline of 23,000 jobs, with downward revisions to prior months, and unemployment at 4.1%) helped lower expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate hikes and supported risk assets but US stocks futures are mixed in pre-open. Slower nonfarm payroll data and softening jobs figures have reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold or ease rates, supporting equity valuations
When I look at the nonfarm payrolls the trend is down. Nonfarm payrolls have been declining every month since March, could this be the result on AI adoption? I can ‘t say this is due to AI as we are in the early adoption but in the longer term there is no doubt that AI will reduce the number of jobs so we could have a strong economy (GDP) and weak employment
Despite the weak employment report the 10Y yield has hardly moved down, it shows that yields are resilient and supported by other factors that are not going away. As long as we are in this situation (resilient yields/yields making new highs), the stock market will face head winds. However I believe we are in a bull market any decline should be seen as a correction in a bull market #FTSE $FTSE $SPX #NASDAQ
Wall Street futures are trading positive after the S&P 500 reached a new record high. Broad gains are supported by solid corporate earnings (with over 80% of reporting companies exceeding expectations) and optimism around diplomatic talks regarding the Strait of Hormuz
AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) reported record Q2 revenue of $11.5 billion (up 50% year-over-year) and non-GAAP EPS of $1.66. Growth was propelled by Data Center revenue doubling year-over-year behind strong demand for its EPYC and AI processors. Despite beating on both top and bottom lines, AMD stock fell 9% in after-hours trading. Investors had bid the stock up aggressively in anticipation of a massive print, leaving the valuation vulnerable to profit-taking the moment results dropped
The bottom line is that companies linked to the AI trade are all doing well but valuations are sky high, any disappointment is met with heavy selling. The FTSE 100 is not following the S&P 500 to new highs, it is not influenced by the AI trade. It would appear the FTSE 100 peaked at 10989. However there is still some upside in the US #FTSE $FTSE $SPX #NASDAQ
Markets are heading into the session with cautious positioning as investors brace for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and a massive slate of mega-cap tech earnings. The Fed concludes its two-day policy meeting today. Markets are widely pricing in a 71% probability that rates remain unchanged and a 29% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike
Investors will scrutinize Fed Chair Warsh’s commentary for clues on the future rate path. Earnings season hits high gear today with Microsoft and Meta Platforms reporting after the bell, followed by Apple and Amazon tomorrow. Markets are hyper-focused on whether massive AI capital expenditure is delivering actual revenue growth
As noted yesterday there is a loss of upward momentum, but this could be due to oncoming earnings reports from the big caps, investors are waiting to see the reports before making their move. Whatever happens over the next few days, the pattern is terminal which means it could go higher but upside is limited. The S&P 500 appears to have more upside than the FTSE 100, this suggests the earnings reports will provide the fuel to push the S&P 500 to 7800. Tech stocks don’t influence the FTSE, so the FTSE has less upside $FTSE #FTSE $SPX #NASDAQ
Thierry Laduguie retweeted
10 year Treasury 4.7%+
20 year Treasury 5.2%+
30 year Treasury nearly 5.2%
The Japanese Yen is nearly 164.
The world is selling off American debt. Noone wants it. Trillions worth of debt has to be rolled over as well, and current yields are not attracting buyers.
The USA is on the verge of a debt doom loop, where higher rates cause money printing and yield curve control, which causes inflation and real rates to remain negative even while rates rise.
This is stagflation, and the most powerful assets to own are #gold and #silver.
Investors are shifting focus from pure artificial intelligence (AI) hype to actual, near-term earnings. High-profile moments—such as Apple raising hardware prices due to surging memory chip costs and reports of Nvidia's GPU spot prices cooling off—have triggered profit-taking. Wall Street is nervously watching for signs of inflation stickiness. A strong jobs report could prompt a more hawkish Federal Reserve, with some analysts pricing in an interest rate hike as early as September
If the fear of higher interest rates has hit gold the S&P 500 does not seem to be affected. Yet higher interest rates are bearish for tech stocks, this divergence between gold and the S&P 500 will end. The key is that investors don’t believe interest rates will be considerably higher in the future, they could go up by 25bps or 50bps but upside is limited due to the enormous amount of debt to be serviced. At some point in the future gold and stocks will rally #gold #XUAUSD $SPX
Markets rallied strongly yesterday driven by a massive surge in tech stocks. The market had been suffering from AI fatigue and valuation anxiety, with investors worried that tech companies were spending billions on artificial intelligence without seeing a return on investment
However, blockbuster earnings and guidance from heavyweights Micron Technology and Qualcomm completely flipped the script. Micron blew past expectations with stunning quarterly revenue (surging to over $41 billion), proving that hardware and memory chip demand remains incredibly high. Qualcomm followed suit by drastically raising its long-term data center and non-handset revenue forecasts. This reassured investors that the recent tech sell-off was just a temporary valuation reset, not a permanent structural peak