fabiancripto.eth 🔴 🏴🦇🌿

my stablecoin predictions for 2026 growth & commoditisation - on/offramps and cards continue to grow 100x YoY in volume - despite 100x growth, take rates go down as on/offramps continue to commoditize (as bridges did throughout 2022-23). with clear reg, licensing cost is legal capex + LP, just as building a bridge was engineering capex + LP - another 100 'onchain banks' are launched as privy + bridge + rain + aave get bundled - at least least two 10m+ seed rounds into a new OBaaS "onchain banking as a service" (bundled privy + bridge + rain + aave offered at $500/mo) - first major 'onchain bank' disaster happens with some risky 'high yield' self-custodial account goes to zero. thousands lose savings, company will blame users for not reading asterisks reg - more pressure on circle and tether to freeze assets as stablecoins move from pmf with cross-exchange arbitrage to payments and real-world usage which includes crime, hacking, sanctioned entities - first 50m+ lawsuit re freezing - more scrutiny about custodial and centralized solutions (CEXes, on/offramps) - no increased attention to self-custodial and decentralized solutions unless privacy-related - previously niche academic debates about shoehorning self-custody and decentralized solutions into dominant jurisprudential paradigms get attention in ivory towers - privacy solutions mostly positioned as super compliant corporate and clean. - cypherpunks continue to fight and get increased attention in europe after some major snowden-style leak, US is too jaded at this point and has given up on its constitution culture - more payment-related ERCs as EF wakes up to tempo, backend-centric ivory towers big brain thinking starts matter less than devex and product strategy - we stop comparing ourselves to solana - base continues to lose credibility as it leans into more insider trading extraction and gambling - AR and ARR become important metrics but projects learn to game them equally fast as they did with mcap and fdv - more teams on slack than on discord - more and more business happens on linkedin and email threads