10 year old boy repeatedly slaps his mother after finding her high on drugs in the street with his little brother.
right or wrong? teapawt.org/ceciiii07/status/20886…
really powerful story. tim’s work shows how much impact one person can have in protecting communities and land from wildfires. hope the conversation around these rising costs leads to a sustainable path forward.
i’m so happy to see prediction market data become part of mainstream election coverage. this cbs news x kalshi partnership should make the midterm coverage even more interesting and grounded. hope to continue seeing this type of adoption.
prediction markets being used as a practical tool for small businesses is a really interesting use case. turning uncertainty into actionable information can be genuinely valuable.
“It’s said by politicians and pundits that prediction markets are gambling markets, that gamblers insufficiently sated by sports gambling are moving into the seemingly quotidian. This is a mistaken view. Juliano instructs on the matter.”
New Jersey trucker Nick Juliano is using Kalshi to insure his small business against rising gas prices.
Small businesses make decisions about inventory, staffing, and costs with far less information than large companies.
Prediction markets give them another signal about what may happen next, and it's why Juliano is using them to offset fueling costs.
forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2…
this is actually pretty impressive, turning thousands of traders different insights into a forecast that can outperform traditional models shows how powerful open markets can be for discovering useful information.
A new paper from Alexander W. Crosier examines Kalshi’s next-day weather markets.
The findings:
• Kalshi beats the most accurate public forecast, the National Blend of Models (NBM), in six of seven cities studied.
• Kalshi outperforms NBM by 10% a day ahead.
• Kalshi beats a weighted blend of public forecasts at every horizon tested: day ahead, evening before, and morning of.
From daily plans to decisions about flights, farming, and energy supply, better weather forecasts help people make better decisions.
That’s the value of price discovery on an open exchange: trading produces useful information for everyone.
How do traders improve on forecasts built by meteorologists? The paper explains:
“Traders do not need to make a better weather model than the meteorologists. They only need to start from what has been published and add anything that the weather guidance missed.”
Markets give people a financial incentive to be right. Traders build sophisticated models, analyze public forecasts, and seek out information others have missed. They compete to identify and offer better prices, incorporating that information into the market’s forecast.
The benefits extend to everyone: the resulting forecast is available to people who never place a trade. ~75% of people who use Kalshi come for the forecasts, not to trade.
The Weather Company, Fox Weather, and thousands of everyday people are using Kalshi’s weather data: markets turn competing analyses into information people can use.
Read the full paper here: arxiv.org/pdf/2609.23969
love seeing small family businesses use creative ways to manage real world costs like this. really smart way to protect the business while keeping the focus on bringing quality alaskan salmon to customers.
Meet the Gall family, founders of Sleepy Bay Salmon.
They fish Prince William Sound and the Copper River flats for King, Sockeye, and Coho, with family roots in the Chenega Tribe going back thousands of years. They deliver wild Alaskan salmon straight to customers around the world.
Diesel is one of the biggest costs of the season and one of the hardest to predict. Right now, diesel prices in Alaska are at an all-time high. When fuel prices rise, profits shrink, and until now there hasn't been much a small operation could do about it.
So Sleepy Bay Salmon is using Kalshi to hedge Alaska diesel prices.
If diesel prices climb, their trade pays out and helps offset the higher cost of fueling the boat. If prices come in lower, they lose on the trade but pay less at the pump.
Order direct: sleepybaysalmon.com/
this is honestly a pretty smart way to hedge the risk, rizzo’s basically found a way to stay covered either way. love seeing businesses get creative like this.
Meet Rizzo's, a Chicago sports bar that lives and dies by Cubs home games. When the Cubs play at Wrigley, Rizzo's is packed and pulls in tens of thousands of dollars a night. When the Cubs don't play at home, the bar takes a hit.
Playoff season makes that swing even bigger, so Rizzo's hedged it on Kalshi.
We made a market for them: How many playoff games will the Cubs host this season? Rizzo's position: NO on 2+ home games.
If the Cubs host 2+ games, Rizzo's has extra playoff nights and makes thousands in added revenue.
If the Cubs host fewer, Rizzo's misses out on that playoff revenue, but their Kalshi position pays out to cover it.
Either way, Rizzo's is covered.
