Bitcoin’s four year cycle is currently pointing to either $203K or $30K. After the October 25 close, Bitcoin is exactly 77,006 blocks from its next halving. I matched that point with every previous cycle. In all three previous cycles, Bitcoin was substantially higher by the halving time: 2015: +197.0% 2018: +152.1% 2022: +297.7% Even the weakest repeat of this would turn $80,699 into approximately $203,448. The 2011 occurrence failed badly, so this is 3/3 since 2015 not a 4/4 record. But there is one big problem. Those three historical entries came when Bitcoin was 80.7%, 82.6% and 75.8% below its cycle peak. Today, it is only 35.3% below the $124,824 daily close peak. If Bitcoin had followed any of those historical resets, it would already be trading near $30K, not $80K. So either this cycle has completely rewritten Bitcoin’s history and Bitcoin has permanently changed, or the market is celebrating a bottom that never happened.

I found a Bitcoin FOMC strategy with a 90% win rate across 9 years of data. At 2:00 PM ET, record Bitcoin’s price. At 3:00 PM ET, check it again. If Bitcoin is down at least 1%, short the 3 PM close. This has happened nine times since 2017. On eight occasions, Bitcoin fell another 3% within 72 hours before rebounding 3%. 8 out of 9 Median maximum decline: 5.5% Median time to target: 13 hours Since 2023: 4 out of 4 The latest signal was on July 30, 2025. Bitcoin dropped 1.09% during the first hour and then fell another 3.8%. This is not simply what happens after every sharp hourly dump. The same setup at 2 PM on simple days reached the target before invalidation only 49 out of 120 times. Ordinary day: 40% FOMC day: 88% Today’s rule is simple: 2 PM: Record the price. 3 PM: If Bitcoin is at least 1% lower, short. Target: 3% below entry. Invalidation: 3% above entry. Bookmark this and use it after today’s FOMC. If the signal does not trigger, do absolutely nothing.

Bitcoin’s entire 4 month rally was made in just 15 hours. Since July 1, BTC has moved from $58,771 to $81,700, a 39.0% gain. This move contained 2,724 hourly candles and I checked every single one. The 15 strongest hours, just 0.55% of the entire period produced enough gains to account for the whole rally. Remove the strongest 20 hours and Bitcoin’s return flips from +39.0% to −6.8%. The daily chart tells the same story. Only 7 days produced enough gains to explain the entire move. Someone who held Bitcoin during remaining 99.27% of the period but missed those 20 hours would still have lost money. This is exactly why going fully cash and waiting for the “perfect entry” is so dangerous. Bitcoin could spend weeks doing absolutely nothing and deliver the entire rally while you are waiting to buy lower. Always keep a core position open.

Bitcoin almost never stops after a 5% move. I tested every independent occasion since 2017 when Bitcoin moved at least 5% within six hours. There were 122. In 116 cases, Bitcoin moved at least another 7.5% from the signal price within the following 14 days. 116 out of 122 times, a 95.1% hit rate. The median maximum move was not even 7.5%, it was 15.8%. And the 7.5% target was typically reached within only 47 hours. The latest signal was brutal: Bitcoin ran from $64,427 to $68,554 in six hours, then exploded another 16% to $79,500 within 47 hours and eventually reached $81,479. The pattern has survived every market condition since 2017. So, the next time Bitcoin moves 5% in six hours, remember that this is only the start.