
China analyst @ASPI_CTS 🦋 Find me: https://xitter.cf/t.co/IY9NzQLRXD 📨 Anon tips/feedback: https://xitter.cf/t.co/dVmp67cY6K 📱 Signal: fergus.99
Joined May 2007
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'If foreign open-weight models become part of the country’s sovereign-AI strategy, what else are we importing with them?' write @fryan and @alexcolv1lle. aspistrategist.org.au/austra…
ICYMI 🔊
We’re looking for a China Analyst or Senior Analyst to join ASPI’s high-performing China team.
Don’t miss the opportunity to join one of the Indo-Pacific’s most influential think tanks and contribute to globally recognised research.
🔗 Apply: bit.ly/4jlyegA
JOB ALERT 🔊
ASPI is looking for an experienced China analyst or senior analyst to join the team.
The role will focus on China’s foreign and security policy, defence and military affairs, Australia–China relations and China’s impact on the region.
🔗: bit.ly/4z2utBF
'Forgive me my pedantry, but if Australia is going to regulate social media algorithms, we should be precise about what an algorithm actually is,' writes @fryan. aspistrategist.org.au/austra…
In @CapitalBrief, @fryan argues Australians should have more choice over how their social media feeds are curated under the federal government’s proposed digital duty of care, pointing to @bluesky as one model for giving users more control.
📰 Read 👇
capitalbrief.com/article/the…
🚨 NEW REPORT 🚨
In ‘Warning signals’, @fryan, @BethanyAllenEbr and Nathan Attrill et al. warn that 🇻🇪 is in a position to become one of the first countries outside 🇨🇳 to import Beijing’s new generation of AI systems for surveillance and control.
📕: bit.ly/3SXFN2r
Fergus Ryan retweeted
Replying to @fryan
I actually checked this as soon as they posted this and the answer is no.
In @FinancialReview, @fryan argues the global AI race is about more than who develops the most advanced frontier models: “What matters more is who supplies the default layer of cheap, capable AI that businesses, developers and governments build on.”
📰👇afr.com/world/asia/why-the-v…
In @australian, @fryan discusses 🇨🇳's use of AI to communicate its political objectives, arguing 🇨🇳 has experimented with visual communications for years and AI is the latest iteration: “What AI adds is a lower barrier to entry and therefore speed.”
📰👉 bit.ly/3RnMz0G
Fergus Ryan retweeted
Replying to @JChengWSJ @ChongJaIan
“Beijing’s appetite for bulk data on foreign populations is well documented. Much American voter data is legally purchasable in the first place,” said Fergus Ryan, a senior analyst at the Canberra-based @ASPI_CTS.
@fryan
wsj.com/world/china/trumps-a…
Fergus Ryan retweeted
My colleague @fryan's comments for WSJ about the White House's release of files relating to the 2020 election:
“Beijing’s appetite for bulk data on foreign populations is well documented. Much American voter data is legally purchasable in the first place,” said Fergus Ryan, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, a Canberra-based think tank.
“But it’s very important to distinguish influence operations, which target opinions, from interference, which targets the machinery of voting,” Ryan said.
“I’ve seen nothing around President Trump’s claims that bridges the gap between holding data about voters and actually manipulating votes.”
wsj.com/world/china/trumps-a…
'If Washington now sees frontier AI models as strategic capabilities, it needs an allied-access regime for 5-Eyes partners, not a one-size-fits-all foreign exclusion rule', @fryan in @abcnews on the halt to foreign access to Anthropic's advanced AI models.
abc.net.au/news/2026-06-13/a…
Fergus Ryan retweeted
I increasingly find that my primary role in the "China influence" space these days is to debunk a lot of very, very poor quality "China influence" research reports that have been coming out.
I don't think it would be an overreach to call this slate of reports "China influence slop." But such a term is too kind, because it fails to indicate that these reports are primarily motivated by the desire to delegitimize grassroots American organizating by attempting to associate them with "hostile foreign forces" — a tactic widely used by the CCP to delegitimize grassroots Chinese civil society whenever it finds such movements inconvenient.
Let me start with a couple recent ones:
— The reports from Bitcoin Policy Institute and Power the Future which have led House reps to call for an investigation into anti-data center organizing
— And this latest one about how China is supposedly bankrolling climate activism at the University of California system and thereby acting to "shape California’s climate and energy policies."
I can demonstrate, very easily, that these reports are
1) exceedingly poor quality as China influence reports go
and
2) primarily and overwhelmingly motivated not by a desire to uncover China's influence (and thus to preserve the integrity of US civil society), but rather to delegitimize what are very obviously organic US movements (and thus to compromise the integrity of US civil society)
Reports like these represent an anti-democratic abuse of the concept of China influence research, which denies agency to real Americans.
These reports, given both their methods and their political goal, are also a form of disinformation and propaganda, very similar to how China paints Hong Kong pro-democracy protesters as stooges of America.
And finally, these reports make a mockery of actual, high-quality China influence research.
This must stop now — and journalists reporting on this style of report should do so with the highest degree of journalistic professionalism and scrutiny.
How are authoritarian regimes using AI to strengthen control?
At @OsloFF, ASPI Senior China Analyst @fryan explained how AI is being used to monitor citizens, censor information, spread propaganda and suppress dissent.
📺: bit.ly/3S3yKnT
📚: bit.ly/4oapg6z
youtube.com/watch?v=2N7NGM5U…
🚨 NEW REPORT 🚨
In ‘Lethal humidity and the systemic risks of climate change’, Dr Robert Glasser examines the threat of “lethal humidity”, warning more than half the global population could face life-threatening humid heat by the end of the century.
🔖: bit.ly/4e6C4qT
PROJECT UPDATE 📢
Today @ASPI_CTS launches an update to the China Defence Universities Tracker, including insights on China-Iran research ties for the past 15 years, a major refresh of sanctions information and updates to 12 institutions.
📝 Get access: unitracker.aspi.org.au/
NEW PODCAST 🎤
In this episode of Stop the World, ASPI’s @fryan and @BethanyAllenEbr join @davidwroe to unpack AI in 🇨🇳, from the automation of the justice system and predictive policing to “ambient censorship” and authoritarian values in tech.
🎧: bit.ly/4vlRO01
Fergus Ryan retweeted
Read my latest for @nytimes , together with my colleague Dr. Jennifer Wong-Leung, featuring our latest ASPI research:
Shutting out China’s best minds will only push them into a homegrown Chinese research ecosystem that is already eclipsing American universities.

















