Sometimes I expose Gurus and sometimes I give my opinion on metals prices as a physical commodity trader. Not financial advice !
Joined November 2025
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🧵 High interest rates are supposed to kill Gold and Silver.
History says that’s only half true.
The rate that matters is the real rate: nominal rate minus inflation.
High rates + higher inflation = metals can rip.
High rates + crushed inflation = metals get wrecked.
Grab a coffee, and let's study this. 🤓👇
FED decision week.
My base case: no hike this week.
Markets are already pricing 90% odds of a hold, and I think that sets up a relief rally across risk assets — with Gold and Silver as the clearest beneficiaries.
Why I expect them to pause:
• Officials (Williams, Jefferson, Daly, Waller) have signaled no urgency for back-to-back hikes after September’s 25 bp move
• They want time to see how that hike is filtering through inflation, the labor market, and financial conditions
• Labor market is cooling but still stable — slow job growth, low unemployment, no hard-landing signal that forces their hand
• Preference for a measured path over 2022-style aggression; preserve optionality
• Chair Warsh has stayed deliberately non-committal, which markets are reading as consistent with a skip
Inflation is still sticky, so a rate hike in December remains a possibility.
But for this meeting, the path of least resistance is a hold.
Good setup for the metals this week.
Year-to-date performance:
• S&P 500: +12.4%
• Nasdaq: +12.2%
• Oil (WTI): +88%
• Gold: –8.5%
• Bitcoin: –7%
• Silver: –25%
The question is simple:
Are you still chasing the assets that already had a great year… or are you buying the ones that are currently on sale?
For me, the answer is clear.
Reasons I’m buying Gold at these levels.
When Gold corrects from an all-time high, it drops 36% on average. Right now we’re about 29% below the ATH.
Statistically, we’re very close to a bottom.
The chart shows a double bottom forming, historical support at $4,000 is holding, and RSI is at its most oversold levels of the year.
A Fed rate hike is already priced in.
I’m not scared — and neither should you be.
Silver.
Two weeks ago, with silver at $58, I said we’d hit $70 by November 15.
Fast forward to today: it’s sitting just under $54/oz.
Am I ready to say I was wrong?
Not yet.
Silver is at its most oversold RSI levels of the year. I’d be genuinely surprised if we don’t get a relief rally next week.
A rate hike is already priced in, which limits how much further we can realistically fall from here.
We’re still holding the $54 support.
This is not the moment to get scared.
Fthegurus retweeted
Really interesting take on protecting your wealth from currency depreciation by allocating to AI stocks.
As fiat currencies continue to lose purchasing power, owning high-quality AI companies offers a practical way to stay exposed to real technological growth and long-term value creation.
Worth a read 👇
Down about a third in a month. Can holding this still protect your future?
From Sept 22 to Oct 22 close, $NBIS went from $236.12 to $159.17.
Watching the account shrink, of course I feel it. That money was saved bit by bit. A few weeks of this is hard to ignore.
Middle East, treasury moves, a tired tape. A lot of it is outside my control. What I can do is keep cash, and recheck the read.
Im just a regular investor. I want the option in five or ten years to rest when Im tired, to help family when they need it, and not keep lowering what I expect from life because prices keep rising.
Thats why I invest.
Assume 3% average inflation for 20 years, no interest. $1 million today buys about $554k of stuff then.
The number in the account can stay the same. What it buys keeps shrinking.
A good business can grow sales, run more efficiently, put the profit into the next growth. Holding that at a reasonable price is how wealth has a shot at staying ahead of prices.
After this pullback, I still like $NBIS. Three reasons.
1. Compute demand is turning into actual revenue.
Customers will pay for compute that gets delivered on time and stays up. Power, building, GPU, network, software, ops. All of it has to line up.
NBIS group revenue in Q2 2026 was $582.3M, up 454%. Thats one concrete piece under the confidence.
Next is whether signed capacity comes online on time, gets accepted, and turns into recurring billing.
Each delivery makes the long expectation a little more credible.
2. Operations are improving. Capital put in has a shot at generating more cash.
Q2 adjusted EBITDA was $236.2M. Same quarter last year was still a loss.
As more capacity comes on, the company has a shot at higher utilization, keeping customers, and letting the equipment already paid for keep generating revenue.
Adjusted EBITDA isnt the final shareholder return. Depreciation, interest, and equipment refresh still have to be counted.
What I watch is how much a batch of GPUs earns back over its life, and how much cash the company actually keeps.
Whether those numbers keep improving decides if the patience is worth it.
3. Long contracts give the expansion more concrete financing support.
The $3.5B senior secured facility from Citi gives $NBIS more flexibility to build halls and deploy GPUs.
The company also pointed to more than $40B of investment-grade customer commitments on long contracts that can support further asset financing.
That shows customer commitments can help the company raise construction money, and push more capacity out.
The facility is 364 days. Initial rate SOFR plus 2.75%. How the next financing connects, and whether the cost stays reasonable, still has to be tracked.
Raising the money is progress. Turning the money into a return still depends on execution.
Those three hold the bull case for me. The stock around $160 doesnt by itself prove its cheap.
Still need to put fully diluted market cap, net debt, future revenue, and cash flow in the same frame.
Revenue doubling doesnt mean the shareholder makes the same. Multiple compression and dilution can eat the return from growth.
So I like the company and I stay picky on the price. I adjust as new evidence shows up. This is money I worked to save.
If $NBIS delivers on time, keeps customers willing to pay, raises asset utilization, and controls financing and dilution cost, operating growth has a shot at becoming per-share value growth.
Think about it.
He called Silver to $300 near the all-time high.
The moment it started dumping, he disappeared.
Now he’s charging followers for a subscription just to get silver updates.
One of the most unethical things I’ve seen on this app.
Really interesting take on protecting your wealth from currency depreciation by allocating to AI stocks.
As fiat currencies continue to lose purchasing power, owning high-quality AI companies offers a practical way to stay exposed to real technological growth and long-term value creation.
Worth a read 👇
Down about a third in a month. Can holding this still protect your future?
From Sept 22 to Oct 22 close, $NBIS went from $236.12 to $159.17.
Watching the account shrink, of course I feel it. That money was saved bit by bit. A few weeks of this is hard to ignore.
Middle East, treasury moves, a tired tape. A lot of it is outside my control. What I can do is keep cash, and recheck the read.
Im just a regular investor. I want the option in five or ten years to rest when Im tired, to help family when they need it, and not keep lowering what I expect from life because prices keep rising.
Thats why I invest.
Assume 3% average inflation for 20 years, no interest. $1 million today buys about $554k of stuff then.
The number in the account can stay the same. What it buys keeps shrinking.
A good business can grow sales, run more efficiently, put the profit into the next growth. Holding that at a reasonable price is how wealth has a shot at staying ahead of prices.
After this pullback, I still like $NBIS. Three reasons.
1. Compute demand is turning into actual revenue.
Customers will pay for compute that gets delivered on time and stays up. Power, building, GPU, network, software, ops. All of it has to line up.
NBIS group revenue in Q2 2026 was $582.3M, up 454%. Thats one concrete piece under the confidence.
Next is whether signed capacity comes online on time, gets accepted, and turns into recurring billing.
Each delivery makes the long expectation a little more credible.
2. Operations are improving. Capital put in has a shot at generating more cash.
Q2 adjusted EBITDA was $236.2M. Same quarter last year was still a loss.
As more capacity comes on, the company has a shot at higher utilization, keeping customers, and letting the equipment already paid for keep generating revenue.
Adjusted EBITDA isnt the final shareholder return. Depreciation, interest, and equipment refresh still have to be counted.
What I watch is how much a batch of GPUs earns back over its life, and how much cash the company actually keeps.
Whether those numbers keep improving decides if the patience is worth it.
3. Long contracts give the expansion more concrete financing support.
The $3.5B senior secured facility from Citi gives $NBIS more flexibility to build halls and deploy GPUs.
The company also pointed to more than $40B of investment-grade customer commitments on long contracts that can support further asset financing.
That shows customer commitments can help the company raise construction money, and push more capacity out.
The facility is 364 days. Initial rate SOFR plus 2.75%. How the next financing connects, and whether the cost stays reasonable, still has to be tracked.
Raising the money is progress. Turning the money into a return still depends on execution.
Those three hold the bull case for me. The stock around $160 doesnt by itself prove its cheap.
Still need to put fully diluted market cap, net debt, future revenue, and cash flow in the same frame.
Revenue doubling doesnt mean the shareholder makes the same. Multiple compression and dilution can eat the return from growth.
So I like the company and I stay picky on the price. I adjust as new evidence shows up. This is money I worked to save.
If $NBIS delivers on time, keeps customers willing to pay, raises asset utilization, and controls financing and dilution cost, operating growth has a shot at becoming per-share value growth.
