Fwaaa

A few hours after most of us who live on the East Coast went to bed last night, the people of Israel were waking up and already heading to the polls, which opened there at 7am local time (six hours ahead of us). This is the first Israeli legislative election since 2022, which, of course, makes it the first since the horrific attacks carried out by the antisemitic terrorist group Hamas on Oct. 7th, 2023. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing a strong challenge to his leadership, and there’s a significant chance his third tenure at the helm could soon be over depending on how today’s vote goes. I’ve not been shy about my disgust for Mr. Netanyahu, whom I firmly believe is one of the most irresponsible, dangerous, and immoral world leaders of the 21st century. The crimes he has committed against the people of Israel, Palestinian civilians, the rest of the Middle East, the United States, and the world generally should have all reasonable adults, regardless of political persuasion, demanding he be tossed behind bars. But instead of charting out what I think should happen in an ideal world, I feel it would be more useful to give a rundown of how and when we may or may not know if Mr. Netanyahu will remain in power or be ousted from the office he has so shamelessly abused. Israel has a parliamentary body called the Knesset. It’s like our House of Representatives, except it’s the only political body in Israel. They don’t have a lower and upper chamber. It’s just the one chamber. The Knesset has 120 seats, and each one will be up for grabs today. There are technically 36 political parties vying for seats in the Knesset but only about a dozen have a realistic chance of winning seats. There’s an additional layer of difficulty here because every political party must achieve at least 3.25 percent of the nationwide vote (about four seats) in order to have seats in the Knesset. Don’t reach that percentage? Then no seats for your party. Unlike U.S. elections, with just our two major parties, the Knesset only works with a coalition government — or an alliance of various parties adding up to a majority of seats. To underscore this point, Mr. Netanyahu’s political party—Likud—has never won more than 30 percent of the nationwide vote under his leadership. This may seem unimpressive at first glance, but it speaks to how the Israeli government has always run on different parties entering into coalition alliances in order to govern. There are some technical aspects I could get into, but let’s keep it simple: the magic number is 61 — that’s how many seats are needed for a coalition government. If the political parties opposing Mr. Netanyahu’s coalition bloc want to oust him, their coalition need to win at least 61 seats. Here’s the frustrating thing: it is almost certain we will not know tonight if Mr. Netanyahu shall remain in power. In fact, we may not know this week. And there’s a chance the results will not yield a coalition government, and thus, another legislative election will be held as many as seven months from now. Let’s walk through it. The polls will close in Israel at 4pm ET (10pm there). A few moments later, the various Israeli news outlets will release their exit polling showing estimates for how many seats each party won and thus, the earliest guesses for which coalition won. Interestingly, each of the past three Israeli legislative elections had exit polls that were off by a few seats from the final results. In 2022, they underestimated Mr. Netanyahu’s coalition by a few seats, but in 2021 and 2020, they overestimated his coalition by a few seats. So, when the exit polls do pop up just after 4pm ET, take them with a grain of salt, especially if they show Mr. Netanyahu’s coalition at around 61 or 62 seats — or the reverse with the opposition leading. Unless it’s clear that an expected coalition could have 65 or more seats (unlikely), you can safely disregard the exit polls. By tomorrow (Oct. 28th), we’ll have substantial preliminary results, and by Friday (Oct. 30th), we’ll likely have the final vote tally, which is to say we’ll then know how many seats each party won. Then the process moves to confirming a coalition. It may work out that an expected coalition is able to quickly cobble together 61 seats for a working majority, but it’s more likely that there will be several more days—perhaps even weeks—of various parties hashing out details to form a coalition government. In 2022, the results were pretty clear within two days. In 2021, a confirmed coalition wasn’t reached until nine weeks after the election. In 2020, it took about two months, including a week for the Israeli Supreme Court to approve an unprecedented power-sharing agreement. So, what happens if a coalition can’t be reached? Well, the President of Israel (a mostly ceremonial head of state) will task a member of the Knesset with the responsibility of forming a governing coalition within 28 days, and that Knesset member has the option of requesting a two-week extension. If that Knesset member fails in the task, the President can assign another Knesset member to give it a try within 28 days. Leaving out some technical aspects here, if that member also fails, the whole Knesset then has 21 days to request that the President assign a particular member to make an attempt at forming a governing coalition, which must be answered within two days, and upon approval, that member then has 14 days to try. If after all this a governing coalition still cannot be reached, another election will be scheduled within 90 days of the President announcing a coalition cannot be formed based on the election results. Thus, it is possible we could be doing all of this again seven months from now. By the way, next time your friend or colleague or insufferable in-law talks up parliamentary systems as a solution to their understandable frustration with our two-party system, remind them that having numerous parties does not mean efficiency in governing. So, that’s all to say: get comfortable, grab a drink, and smoke ‘em if you got ‘em. This could take a while. Okay, but regardless of all the procedural stuff, which way are the political winds blowing in Israel today? Short answer: it’s unclear. Longer answer: Mr. Netanyahu remains the rock solid favorite of the more rightwing coalition, and despite all of his scandals and controversies, his party Likud and their coalition partners remain neck-and-neck in polling with the opposition coalition. Anyone claiming certainty of what the results will be is full of shit. There’s really not much difference in likelihood between a scenario in which Mr. Netanyahu survives with a solid coalition versus losing to a solid opposition coalition versus this all wounding up with another election next summer. No one truly knows. Anything could happen. But here’s one substantial thing that gives me hope: one of the biggest stories coming out of this election are the estimated 100,000+ Israeli voters living overseas who have flown back specifically to vote in this election, the vast majority of them—rightwing, leftwing, and centrist—who oppose Mr. Netanyahu. In a nation that has seen an average of about 4.62 million participating voters over the past three legislative elections, a bloc of 100k+ mostly anti-Netanyahu Israelis could wound up making the difference. Even if it works out to only a few seats, that could prove enough to defeat Mr. Netanyahu’s coalition. Early this morning, I spoke to my friend Hadar Susskind—President and CEO of the peace organization New Jewish Narrative—who is one of those overseas voters that made the trip to cast a ballot. I asked him what he hoped would be accomplished by the time he boarded a plane back to the United States. “When I fly back to the US I hope to be leaving an Israel that has recommitted to its founding values of democracy and equality,” he replied. “Neither has ever been anywhere near perfect, but Israel will need them both to move towards a better future.” Beautifully said. On a personal note, I’m sending love and encouragement to the people of Israel in closing the chapter on Mr. Netanyahu. Enough is enough. Let’s all hope reason wins the day. ---- Link to full essay available here for easier sharing: charlotteclymer.substack.com…