William Spaniel (@gametheory101) header
William Spaniel (@gametheory101) profile picture

William Spaniel

@gametheory101

Associate professor @PittTweet. Previously @StanfordCISAC and @UofR. Studies war. Also the disembodied voice behind Game Theory 101 on YouTube.

williamspaniel.com
Joined July 2011
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Are you teaching a class on the Russia-Ukraine War or are just generally interested in the subject? Please check out my new book, aptly titled “What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War?” It’s 150+ pages of crisis bargaining theory applied to the conflict. amazon.com/What-Caused-Russi…
Image from William Spaniel (@gametheory101)
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UKRAINE IS DONE (holding back on Russian oil refineries). united24media.com/war-in-ukr…
Zelenskyy Says Ukraine Is Done Holding Back on Russian Oil Refineries

Zelenskyy Says Ukraine Is Done Holding Back on Russian Oil Refineries

Ukraine lifted its ban on strikes against Russian oil refinery targets after a three-day pause requested by the US, President Zelenskyy said.

united24media.com
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Peak comedy. France 24 first publishes the headline "EU ‘fully rejects’ US threat to ban diesel exports unless bloc releases more fuel stocks." Hours later, they update it to "G7 members will release 100 million barrels of diesel after US threatens export ban."
Image from William Spaniel (@gametheory101)
Image from William Spaniel (@gametheory101)
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Even better, they have kept the URL the old headline, so you can see the immediate inconsistency: france24.com/en/europe/20261…
G7 members will release 100 million barrels of diesel after US threatens export ban

G7 members will release 100 million barrels of diesel after US threatens export ban

Members of the Group of Seven bloc of highly industrialised economies on Friday agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil from their reserves over four months, averting a potent...

france24.com
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I get exactly what I deserve when trying to walk my dog and record audio to transcribe for a script for later.
Image from William Spaniel (@gametheory101)
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Estimated 2026 military spending as a percentage of GDP, with NATO figures updated for today's summit.
Image from William Spaniel (@gametheory101)
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What I’m hearing is that constitutional law experts still have not figured out that the Supreme Court is a political body.
Jim Sciutto (@jimsciutto) profile pictureJim Sciutto
@jimsciuttoJun 30
What I’m hearing from constitutional law experts is amazement that this was a 5-4 decision.
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I’m old enough to remember the first time the Strait closed.
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A simple visualization of the line of control in Ukraine since April 2022.
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I made a very simple animation showing NATO's enlargement over the years. Enjoy!
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I really wish I had this type of animation skill when I made this video three years ago! youtube.com/watch?v=3zx3i9s7…
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I’d like to know more about the model you are thinking of that would generate that result. Historically, the United States used tactical nuclear weapons as strategic substitutes in Europe. Without a better option, conventional vulnerability made them *more* credible.
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My first thought was that conventional deployments serve as a costly signal. But then that raises the question why isn't a nuclear deployment also a costly signal.
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This may not be World War 3, but it feels more and more like we are in the middle of a world war. yahoo.com/news/articles/fran…
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We were *this* close to having Operation Epic Furry.
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The central puzzle of war is why ants and termites cannot agree to a settlement that avoids inefficient fighting.
Nature Unedited (@NatureUnedited) profile pictureNature Unedited
@NatureUneditedFeb 15
Truce between termites (top) and ants (bottom) with each side having their own line of guards
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If you woke up this morning thinking "I'd really like to see William Spaniel wreck a $2000 military drone," then goodness do I have the right video for you. Thanks to @neros_tech and @OHichwa for hosting me! youtube.com/watch?v=54hkBXvP…
Winning a No-Win Situation: How Ukraine Can Subsidize the Future of Western Defense

Winning a No-Win Situation: How Ukraine Can Subsidize the Future of Western Defense

Check out my book "How Ukraine Survived": https://amzn.to/47gnlEf. ...

youtube.com
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Let's hope that the security guarantees work better than Macron's pen.
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With ~200 countries in the world, the United States is currently on pace to topple about 60% of world leaders in 2026.
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With all of the discussion about a ceasefire (+Thanksgiving in the U.S.), this was easy to miss. Ukraine has started a new phase of its energy campaign, now targeting production, export terminals, the shadow fleet. Updated timeline below. Full video in the next couple of days.
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Updated map of the current campaign's strikes on oil and gas facilities in Russia, after two more last night.
Image from William Spaniel (@gametheory101)
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